Random Roving

Occupy Destruction

2012-01-30T21:27:00.000-06:00

For a long time I noted that when the tear gas appeared we will have entered a new level of the contraction. That occurred last year. Check. With the recent events in Oakland by the Occupy Movement, I believe we've entered the next "tick down" with protestors causing destruction of property.

"Officials surveyed damage Sunday from a volatile Occupy protest that resulted in hundreds of arrests the day before and left the historic City Hall vandalized after demonstrators broke into the building, smashed display cases, cut electrical wires and burned an American flag. Police placed the number of arrests at about 400 from Saturday's daylong protest — the most contentious since authorities dismantled the Occupy Oakland encampment late last year."
Source: The Chicago Tribune

Energy Crunch

2012-01-22T17:14:00.001-06:00

"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest. By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD."
2010 Joint Operating Environment Report

False Storyline

2012-01-20T16:43:00.000-06:00

"The false storyline of debt being paid down in the United States continues to be propagated by the mainstream press and decried by Paul Krugman. The age of austerity storyline gets full play on a daily basis. Total credit market debt in 2000 was $27 trillion. It skyrocket to $42 trillion by 2005 as George Bush and Alan Greenspan encouraged delusional Americans to defeat terrorism by leasing SUVs and live the American dream by putting zero down on a $600,000 McMansion, financing it with a negative amortization no doc loan. Paul Krugman got his wish as a housing bubble replaced the dotcom bubble. Debt accumulation went into hyper-speed in 2006 and 2007 as Wall Street sharks conducted a fraudulent feeding frenzy by peddling their derivatives of mass destruction around the globe. By the end of 2007, total credit market debt reached $51 trillion."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

Hitting The Ceiling

2012-01-19T16:40:00.000-06:00

“Those who remain unconvinced that rising debt levels pose a risk to growth should ask themselves why, historically, levels of debt of more than 90 percent of GDP are relatively rare and those exceeding 120 percent are extremely rare. Is it because generations of politicians failed to realize that they could have kept spending without risk? Or, more likely, is it because at some point, even advanced economies hit a ceiling where the pressure of rising borrowing costs forces policy makers to increase tax rates and cut government spending, sometimes precipitously, and sometimes in conjunction with inflation and financial repression (which is also a tax)?”
Rogoff & Reinhart

The Big Picture

2012-01-17T16:34:00.002-06:00

"Linear thinkers in mega-corporations, mainstream media and Washington D.C. focus on retaining the status quo, their power and their wealth. They believe an economic recovery can be manufactured through monetary manipulation and Keynesian borrowing and spending. They are blind to the fact that history is cyclical, not linear. In order to have an understanding of what could happen in the coming year, it is essential to keep the big picture in focus."
James Quinn

Ignorance is Bliss

2012-01-15T17:00:00.000-06:00

“Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know.”
Aldous Huxley

The Spark

2012-01-15T16:31:00.000-06:00

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.”
Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning - 1997

Mine vs Yours

2012-01-14T20:22:00.000-06:00

Last night my daughter was telling me about a "Facebook war" regarding some video about Jesus and Religion. I was amazed today to see it with over 10 million views.

"Religion: it will continue its slow progression back towards traditional. Extreme religious behavior will continue to become more prevalent. How we differ will become more important than how we are the same. You say God, I say Alla or Yahweh."
Random Roving, January 1, 2012

"As this cycle continues downward, it will be important to know what you believe in. You will be challenged to stand up for what you believe in whatever that is."
Random Roving, November 6, 2009

Happy New Year - 2012 Is Here

2012-01-01T23:07:00.000-06:00

As I say every year, I love January 1. It’s a great day for reflection and for looking at the year ahead. 2011 was a humdinger. I would sum last year up across the world as the most chaotic year that I've witnessed in my adult lifetime. The late 60’s were more chaotic, but I was playing with blocks and legos. 2011 was a lighter year of blogging due to the burden of the day job. Late night blogging occurs when some amount of energy is left in the tank. This was an interesting year to sit back and observe and watch events play out in predictable fashion.

2012 will be historic on many levels. Unfortunately, most will be of concern. But, I'll open as I will close. We are in transition to a better place. The world will go through a massive global "cleansing" on all levels before we reach our destination. After a cold winter, comes a beautiful spring with fresh new flowers. Wear a coat to "stay warm" and you'll be fine.

"I am succumbing to the dreaded blogger's disease, the undeniable urge to yell 'I told you so!'"
David Collum, Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Cornell University

This year I will present my 2011 post-analysis and 2012 predictions under broad “themes”.

BLOG THEME
I’ve enjoyed hearing people describe what this blog is about. I purposely chose the two words “random” and “roving” so I have free license to cover any topic. Some have said "it's about gold or something", "it's about gloom and doom", and "it's about financial stuff I don't understand". Well, not really. The main framework under which 90% of my posts fall under is the concept of "mass social mood" and the cyclicity of human behavior. I first heard the phrase “mass social mood” from Robert Prechter. His research organization, the Socionomics Institute, focuses on this theme and how world events align with mass social mood. Human beings, due to their mammalian design and the brain’s neocortex, tend to “herd” when making decisions. As Prechter says “happy people make financial markets go up versus financial markets go up and make people happy”. It’s counter intuitive. Our mood drives the financial markets. Markets do not control our mood. Mood cycles like a sine curve through time. There's "ups and downs", expansions and contractions, and peace and conflict.

"The essence of Prechter’s socionomic hypothesis is that fluctuations in social mood—waves of optimism and pessimism—are a natural result of human association and have consequences in social action. Social mood is not conscious, rational and objectively reactive but unconscious, non-rational and subjectively active. While people almost universally believe that the character of social events determines social mood, socionomics recognizes that the causality is the reverse: social mood determines the character of social activity. The causality of social mood is unidirectional; there is no feedback loop of events back to social mood. Events do stimulate brief emotional reactions, but they are transient and independent of social mood. Some forums of activity are ideal for the immediate expression of social mood. The one in which the most detailed and pristine data exist is the stock market, where investors in the aggregate buy and sell stocks almost immediately to express changes in their mood. Other activities, such as the music people choose to hear and the clothes they choose to wear, might serve as equally good “sociometers” if accurate data were available. Many actions taken in response to trends in social mood take time to manifest. For example, business people might decide, in expressing the social mood, to expand or contract operations. But it takes time to implement such plans, so changes in macroeconomic activity lag changes in the stock market. The same is true of political actions, which generally require a large consensus and thereby substantially lag social mood trends. This is why sociometers such as the stock market averages are leading indicators of macroeconomic trends and political actions."
http://www.robertprechter.com/socionomic-theory

These cycles are normal, natural, and repeatable. It's been my interpretation of the data since May 2000, that one of the "greatest credit orgies" of all time ended in late 1999. Late 1999 you say? Yes, the "boiling frog syndrome" can lull us to sleep while we contract.

A few years ago, I read Strauss and Howe’s book, “The Fourth Turning”. The book, published in 1997, is the most important book that I’ve read in the last twenty years. So impacting, I sent it to twenty people for Christmas two years ago. It related the cycles of human history to twenty year generational cycles and archetypes. The rotation of generations creates distinct cycles and impacts the world events. It’s a fascinating and compelling read. The accuracy of the predictions made in 1997 are astounding. Unfortunately, my gift recipients were too busy to read it. It's hard to compete with American Idol, Swamp People, and The Kardashians.

CYCLICITY
After twenty-two years of research, I conclude that the best quantitative metric for defining cycles in the United States is the Dow Jones Gold Ratio. This ratio is calculated by dividing the Dow Jones Industrial Average by the price of one ounce of gold. This ratio clearly defines financial cycles and the impact of the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Post creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the cycles swing up and down in more dramatic fashion.

Mass social mood aligns well with this ratio. In the expansion cycles, the mood of the masses is “happy and greedy”. Their couldn’t be a better example than the 90’s and the Tech/Dotcom boom. The Fed was printing money like crazy, companies were being created out of “thin air”, and everyone’s investment portfolio was on steroids. Everyone was so giddy and rich that they didn't care that the U.S. president was having sex in the Oval Office with an intern! More on that later.

Significant historical contraction cycles in the U.S. are the Great Depression and the Civil War. Note that 70 years elapsed between these two events. Seventy years after the start of the Great Depression puts us in the year 1999. Interesting!

I like to think of the Dow/Gold Ratio as a "mass social mood barometer". This ratio peaked in July, 1999 at the highest number ever recorded (43.7). Most people would say that the financial cycle peaked in October 2008. Once again, the “boiling frog” phenomenon can be applied here. With the downturn in the ratio in late 1999, the mood quickly shifted to the contracting cycle moods of “fear and anger”. The first monumental “fear event” was Y2K. All machines were going to stop working and the world was going to fall into chaos. The technical issue was real. Old Cobol software programming only allowed “two zeros” for date fields, so when 2000 occurred, many software programs around the world would think it was 1900. Many Cobol programmers came out of retirement, consumed a lot of Mountain Dew, and coded many hours to save the day. Problem solved. The world didn’t end. But….the mass mood had clearly shifted to the new cycle themes of “fear and anger”. The Y2Kers thought the world was going to end way before the Mayans predicted it would. The stock market cratered in 2000 and many individual's retirement plans were decimated. Most of the DotCom companies vanished as quickly as they appeared. Clinton and Greenspan's massive fiscal printing press fueled the entire event. Since 2000, the market indices have basically made 0%. Yes, zero percent in 11 years. Once again, the “boiling frog” phenomenon applies. Slow change just doesn’t wake us up. The "buy and holders" still rule despite the fact that the new cycle is a "market timers" paradise. The goons on TV now call this "risk on, risk off"...whatever that means.

Dow Gold Ratio - The Mass Social Mood Barometer

Well the events of 9/11 sure woke up America. This event put the contraction cycle into high gear. Fear transformed into massive xenophobia. Every muslim on the planet became a terrorist and enemy of the U.S. Dubya declared an entire region of the world “The Axis of Evil”. Now that’s some “lumping”. Mexicans became our 2nd target. Thanks for building our strip malls, our interstates, mowing our lawns, and raising our babies! Time to go home.

There’s no better example of the mood than the U.S.’s Homeland Security terror threat rankings. Red, orange, yellow. I don’t even know the difference. But Americans now have color coding to define our fear level. Terror alert. Don’t leave your house.

It’s interesting that “fear” seems to be the leading mood while “anger” is just kicking in. The 2008 election had good examples of both. Anger drove the electorate to decide that “change” was what they wanted. They didn’t know exactly what change, but just change. Anybody but Dubya. The “fear” kicked in right before the election. Remember, “Obama is a Muslim”, “Obama is not a U.S. citizen”, and my favorite “Obama is the anti-Christ”. I received a “soccer mom” email just before the election with the “anti-Christ” pitch. The Fox News Mafia was working all angles.

With “fear and anger” comes military conflict. Afghanistan and Iraq are prime examples. 9/11 provided the “just cause” just as Pearl Harbor did. To get the masses on board for war, you need to get them punched in the face first. Mission accomplished. Under the façade of searching for the “boogeyman” and “nukes”, we obtain control of a significant volume of oil reserves. The French and the Germans who had oil contracts with Saddam aren't so happy.

My historical analysis of the Dow Gold Ratio can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyYW5kb21yb3Zpbmd8Z3g6M2I1MmI1YzRiZDcxNjNhYg

So with that "frame of reference" lets fast forward to 2011 and see what we find.

MASS SOCIAL MOOD
2011 was a very convincing year for educating others on the concept of “mass social mood”.

Source: Africana Online
Random Roving, January 31, 2011

The mind-controlling media now call the entire event "The Arab Spring". I call if "mass social mood" and "The Great Contraction". As the article snippet above states, it all started with one small spark....literally. A man in Tunisia sets himself on fire in protest. The protests cascade across northern Africa. The Fox News Mafia claim that the youth want to be capitalistic Americans. Those educated on cycles and mass social mood see something different. Fear and anger gets a stronghold on the masses and they revolt. The fever spreads to the U.S. and the Wisconsin capital is seized. The "Occupy Movement" kicks off and spreads like wildfire. Jimmy Kimmel interviews an "occupier" and asked what they are mad about and they don't have an answer. They are just mad. In other words, the mood cycle calls for "anger" so just be angry. Figure out why later. Riots and revolutions continue today across the globe. Russia appears to be the latest uprising. Most comical to me was when the Greek police went on strike. Who's going to protect the citizens? Kinda like the New Orleans police during Katrina when they decided to become the looters.

"I believe that the 'sheeple' were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be 'green' forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking. STILL IN PROGRESS. It appears that the 'linears' are still in the majority while the cycle vibrates on."
Random Roving, January 1, 2011

When my favorite Republican called me one day to say that he took his son out of school to attend a Tea Party event, I told him "you won't be taking the boy once the tear gas arrives.". Well it finally did. Tear gas, pepper spray, and the tazers all appeared. The now famous video of the policeman spraying the seated Berkley students with pepper spray is now a "sign of the times".

"College campuses appear to be heating up worldwide. Cutting off cell phones and internet access will really get these kids fired up! 'I want my MTV!'"
Random Roving, December 12, 2009

"Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to 'heat up'". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. 'Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!'"
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

Many Communists countries did just that. They disconnected the youths from their internet access. In China during the Egypt revolt, they filtered all Google searches to where Egypt didn't show up.

We love our sports here in the U.S. and the NFL and NBA threatened strike. On November 29, 2009, I made this prediction:

"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger "'drives the herd closer together'."
Random Roving, November 29, 2009

That prediction was made with the chart below under evaluation. The chart would indicate that strikes are a "thing of the past". Utilizing the Dow/Gold Ratio and understanding the trend of mass social mood, one can predict "types of events" that MIGHT occur. Fear and anger present great environments for labor strikes. The NFL and NBA proved this. Prepare. Many more to come. Recently I predicted strikes around the world relating to transportation. Why? Literally, those types bring things to a halt. The "occupiers" have already attempted to stop shipping. Stay tuned. It will escalate beyond pepper spray.

POLITICS
This was my prediction on January 1, 2010:
"Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

Ugly really seems like too nice of a word. Ron Paul's recent surge seems to support the 3rd party evolution. I believe that Newt will take the Republican ticket and Paul will go independent since that is what he really is. People call the Tea Party the new third party. I call it the "I'm so embarassed to be a Republican" Party. The Tea Party is a bunch of Republicans that said the same thing I said, "Is McCain and Palin the best you got??". A new 3rd party will be something different. It will be a blend of right and left. It will be an alignment of sorts. It won't be a new extreme, but a compromise led by calmer "heads".

Due to extreme anger of the mob, politicians are now targets.
"Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the “fall guy” and historically during 'inflection points'” those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The 'mob' has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, March 24, 2009

Gabby Gifford found this out the unfortunate way. All politicians, especially the President, need to be on guard in the years ahead.

"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

The prediction above on 1/1/10 really hit stride in 2011. Leaders across the world were overthrown in record numbers. Most were "our bitches" funded by the American taxpayer for years. This phenomenon is perfectly aligned with the cycles mood of "fear and anger". The chart below depicts the Dow Gold Ratio with historical reference points for when three of the leaders came into power and when they all fell in synchronous fashion. They came into power during the expansion cycle and get ousted during the contraction.

The summer before the 2008 election several of us were sipping wine beachside and discussing the upcoming election. I stated that Obama would win big. I was quickly scoffed at with the unanimous response "it will be another Bush-Gore.". I predicted Obama's victory, once again, utilizing the frame of reference of cycles and mass social mood. An angry mob doesn't necessarily know what they want, but they do know what they DON'T want. In 2008, they didn't want four more Dubya years. Obama was the obvious anti-Bush. Ironically, Obama's slogan was "hope and change". The "change" part was right on. As we all know now, the cycle hasn't changed at all. More of the same except at higher levels. Obama won purely because the mob wanted something very different.

In September 2010, I predicted Newt's rise. Not because I'm a Newt fan, but because he fits the profile that the frightened Republicans will be seeking in late 2012 when it appears that the world is "on fire".

"The fear factor is very powerful and effective. Newt is starting to use it to emerge as the frontrunner for Team Red."
Random Roving, September 29, 2010

Newt, despite his Clinton-like personal life, presents a calm demeanor which will be very important in 2012. Amongst the chaos appears a calm voice. His most important aspect for Team Red is that he has a link back to the Republican-god, Ronald Reagan. As the party scrambles to find someone qualified, Newt's resume' will suddenly seem perfect. Iowa will be the first indicator.

THE STATE OF THE UNION
"I am patriotic. These days I like to draw the line between patriotism and nationalism. Patriotism is love of country. Nationalism is breast beating 'we are number one and kick your butt'." Peggy Noonan
Random Roving, June 23, 2009

The U.S. might currently resemble Rome or Britain at their peaks. Like the Patriots heading into a Superbowl at 18-0, sometimes overconfidence can be your worst enemy. Peggy Noonan nailed it on nationalism. We want everyone to be like us because we think that we're the best. A contrarian could argue that, yes, you are the worlds leader in innovation and financials, but you also lead in crime, obesity, cancer, and anti-depressant consumption. Morally, one really needs to question where we are as a country. I would say close to the bottom. Just turn the TV on at night. We've made sluts like the Kardashians millionaires. Paris and Lindsay aren't that far behind. Our culture has become fascinated with jackasses. We even made the creators of a show and movie called "Jackass" millionairies. We've made total idiots from the "Jersey Shore" millionaires. What will the anthropologists say about our culture when critiqued in 100 years? I believe that the cycle once again comes into play. At the peak we are at peak immorality. At the peak, we hit a cultural low.

HUMAN EMOTION AND FRAME OF REFERENCES
Our emotion is really what separates us from the rest of the mammalian subclasses. Over the past twelve years, I've found it incredibly challenging to discuss these beliefs, predictions, and theories with others. Emotion always kicks in. Terms like "pessimist" and "gloom and doom" always appear. The "pessimist" one always gets me because I'm one of the most optimistic people I know. An optimist sees reality and plans for it. Now that's positive thinking. Denial is ignorant and destructive. I think that's the normal emotional protective response for many. Pretend it isn't happening. "What I don't know can't hurt me" right? No, not really. An unprepared future CAN hurt you....and your family. The most important point I make to the "emotional" responder is that the world evolves through seasons on many levels. Mass social mood cycles are seasonal. Financial cycles are seasonal. War cycles are seasonal. Each season has it's purpose. During the winter, stay warm and always remember that spring is in the future. Enjoy summer, because the temperature will drop in the fall. It's really simple. You know what's coming. It's no surprise. Yes, the ground hog might change a little over the years, but the seasonal change is inevitable. Hurricane Katrina provided many microcosm examples for me. One powerful one was that the citizens of New Orleans had many days of warning, but despite this, some decided to stay. They knew the storm was coming. They knew the magnitude. They were told exactly what to do. Resources were provided to assist with their exit. But still, many stayed. Lesson learned: heed the warning. A storm is coming. Protect yourself and your family. Protect your most valuable possessions. Board up the house and hope for the best. The greatest thing about a storm is that it makes us focus on what is most important. What is most important to you is what is in the car when you leave the house. Nothing else matters. So the question is, "what's in your car?". Okay, now that we've defined that, take action to protect it. And ask yourself if you prayed more during the storm or before? Or five years before?

In "The Fourth Turning", Strauss and Howe define human thinking in three categories: linear, chaotic, and cyclical. I believe that over the past 28 years, due to the great financial environment that we have lived in, most have been conditioned to think "linearly". Example: My stock portfolio gained an average of 12% per year from 1988 to 1997 so it should do the same for the next ten years. Those financial planners are great at this presentation. Linear for sure. What happened in the past can be extrapolated into the future. See the sine curve below to understand the trappings of this thought process. What's really fascinating is that at the "top" of the curve is where momentum of this belief is strongest. Like when my 70 year old mother called me in 1999 and said "what does this company Amazon do?". A sell signal my friends. When the elderly are inquiring about a DotCom stock, the party has ended. Leave the bar before it catches fire.

The chaotic mode of thinking is that every event is random and unpredictable. Basically, the world's events are all unrelated and just happen. This one is usually difficult for the God believing. But, in a year like 2011, many might say that things are chaotic. Chaos is a great descriptor when the linear world vaporizes.

I've always struggled with why people are so reluctant to think cyclically. We know that the Earth is very cyclical. The calendar repeats every year. The seasons come and go every year. The tide rises and falls. I can predict the temperature in Arizona three years out with a 10 degree variance. Am I a fortune teller? No. The weather is cyclical, so historical temperatures can be analyzed to make this prediction. Very simple. I believe that people resist the cyclical thought process because somehow it feels like progress is not being made. If we keep repeating ourselves, are we really making progress? In the 90's, I loved the mantra of "this time it's different", "it's a New Economy", and my favorite "the internet changes everything". Really?

"History doesn't repeat itself but it sure does rhyme."
Mark Twain

"The Fourth Turning" brings an incredible "frame of reference" to history cycles. The Romans called these cycles "saeculums" and they last 80-100 years. Then the cycle repeats. In "The Fourth Turning", the authors believe that the rotation of different generational archetypes create this repetitive sequence. Through a very detailed dissertation, they make a very compelling thesis. For me, this book and concept brought a context to historical data and cycles that I had already defined. It also brought great insight into not only my generation, but my grandparents, parents, and kids. It explains a lot. One of the key points in the book is that these repetitive cycles have similar general themes and mass human behaviors. None are quite the same, but they have very similar qualities. The most enlightening is that the authors believe that if we gain awareness of where we are in the cycle, we can have impact on the outcome. Yes, there is optimism!!

I've posted this chart below a few times. It's a great pictorial for placing a "You Are Here" arrow. I place us in the "FEAR" phase. The 2008 meltdown was a tremor signifying the "BULL TRAP" phase. 2000 was the "NEW PARIDIGM". 1987 was the "BEAR TRAP". "GREED" and "DELUSION" were Bubba Clinton's 90's money printing orgy. The Gipper orchestrated the "TAKE OFF" with "Morning In America" in 1982. The "Federal Credit Card" was open for business. Yes, the next phases don't sound really good, but remember what I said at the outset. The "RETURN TO THE MEAN" is really where we want to be. Balanced, spiritual, God-fearing, family oriented, caring about others, small, and simple are not bad things! Getting unhooked from our "credit crack pipe" will be challenging. Our "frame of reference" is horribly distorted. Representing 4% of the worlds population and consuming 25% of its resources is not good, moral, sustainable, and is very problematic.

THE MAN IN THE MIRROR
As predicted, the "blame game" really hit new levels in 2011. As I detailed in my October 2009 post, "Last Call For Alcohol", we are all part of the problem. It's so easy, cowardly, and convenient to point the finger at somebody else. We all drank on "50 cent beer night". Now we're mad at all of the bartenders, especially the one still "pouring drinks". When the "credit crack dealer" offered low interest rates, we jumped at the opportunity. Zero percent car loan, "I'm in.". Home equity line of credit..."I'm in.". SUV to haul 8 kids to McDonalds for "supersized meals"....I'm in. Travel everywhere on cheap airline rates..."I'm in". Supersize. "I'm definitely in". Blame everyone but me...."I'm out.". We all participated. We all got "sucked in" with 9/11. We all cheered when we dropped all of those bombs...USA USA USA. One main thing I learned in college was that hangovers are directly proportional to the fun obtained the night before. Now THAT is linear! We can't have fun at the party and then blame the bartender. From 1982-1999, we enjoyed one of the greatest "expansion cycles" in human history. The hangover will be directly proportional. We can postpone the inevitable and print more money to pretend it won't happen. Throwing fuel on a fire does not make it go out. It gets bigger. In 2012, we will see continued "fires" across the planet. I've used the "onion" metaphor in many posts to illustrate that the "outer layer" is the most exposed and gets hit first. In our world, Sub-Saharan Africa is probably the most exposed do to their many issues. Northern Africa "lit up" this year. Europe is on fire. The United States, maybe the "inner core" of the onion, is not exposed. If the "onion" is thrown against the wall, all layers will be impacted. The outer just has the first and most extreme damage. Using this metaphor, one proactive approach is to observe what's going on in the "outer layers". The arrogant American looks at North Africa and distances themselves with statements like "look, they want to be like us", "they deserve it for believing in that dictator for so many years", or "that could never happen here". All are troubling mindsets. What's most important is the theory of "relativity". Not quite Einstein's version, but mine. While Africa will likely be hit the hardest, the relative change in their misery might not be that much. In contrast, the "American dream" when contracting could cause many "entitled" people to struggle. By the way, I'm not talking about welfare recipients. I'm talking about the "entitled" that believe they are due 10% annual stocks returns, 3% loan interest, a venti latte at Starbucks, a gas-guzzler, and freedom to roam the planet. Yes, my greatest concern is for my generation. We entered the working world in The Gipper's "morning in America". Have we really had any challenges or suffering? My question at every dinner party when these topics arise is this "How many people do you know that are out of work? How many young men do you know personally that have come home from military service in a body bag?". My answer, two unemployed and no sad funerals. Our generation has grown in adulthood through historically record-setting financial times. We "super-sized" on all levels. How will we handle this "relative" change? I conclude, not as easy as the Sub-Saharan African. We are an entitled populous and we like our lives. Remember the linear thinking? The cycle will be very problematic for this mindset.

COMMODITIES
I found it interesting when a good friend described this blog to be "about gold and stuff". It made me realize how many posts I make about the commodity, gold. Relating back to the Dow Gold Ratio, gold thrives during the contraction cycle. During contractions we move back towards "real things". As Ann Barnhardt so energetically described in this interview with Jim Puplava, real things are something that you can touch, see, and stand in front of and protect with a gun.
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/12/30/ann-barnhardt/the-futures-options-market-destroyed-by-the-mf-global-collapse

Unique description. They are not "paper promises". They are not obligations someone has to provide you with something. They are not options on something real. You can touch and hold it. A barrel of oil. A gold coin. You get the point. During contractions, we head back to reality. Not a DotCom stock with a P/E of 400.

I embraced gold in 2000 after reading Jim Puplava's "Storm Series". Even today, it's an amazing read. I have tuned in to his weekly broadcast for twelve years. Diverse guests and incredible non-political fact finding.
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour

Puplava's view of the market cycles and the commodity timing was very convincing. I made my leap into gold coins and commodity ETF's after that. It's been a great ride. It's been amazing to watch my generation "fear" commodity investing because we've never seen a commodity cycle in our adult lifetime. It is foreign to us. "Buy and hold stocks" is all we know. Those lame financial planners still speak this mantra. Some are finally saying "yes, you need a little gold in your portfolio. Maybe 1%". Since 2000, gold has had an amazing run while stocks have made a couple percent in 11 years.

The "oil chess game" will continue to be interesting. The U.S.'s approach of invading and occupying oil rich nations is problematic. At some point, China and Russia will say "enough is enough". Rising consumption and finite energy resources is a future train wreck. Something has to give. The Chinese will continue to negotiate energy deals across the planet. The U.S. politicians will continue to battle each other and result in no energy plan.

Water will be a "challenged" resource in the future. Major droughts will bring water to the forefront. Water rights will be a major source of conflict. Those "upstream" might use tactics to control supply to the "downstream". Trouble will follow. This could be country-to-country and U.S. state-to-state.

2012 Predictions
"Now, what about 2011?? I believe that my perspective has not waivered. The cycle continues on so these developments will only deepen and intensify. The worldwide manipulation of the financial system will have grave consequences. We've stolen from the next two generations and I'm not sure if they will ever forgive us. I see the "angry and fear" cycle heading up to the next level in preparation for a frightening 2012. The Mayan Calendar fear will make Y2K look miniscule. It's easy to stampede a herd. Just scare the leaders and the rest will follow. Also keep an eye on the continued toppling of cultural icons. Tiger Woods, Brett Favre, and John Edwards are just the beginning. We build them up during the "up cycle" and tear them down during the "down cycle". Will the cycling doping scandal take Lance Armstrong down? Will Hannah Montana take another bong hit?? The "live" CNN camera feed of the BP oil spill was very symbolic. The magnifying glasses are turned on to "high power". Celebrities, politicians, and corporate CEO's beware."
Random Roving, January 1, 2011

Here are my 2012 predictions:

The dominant moods of fear and anger will reach the next level. Anger at politicians, Wall Street, police, and corporations will increase dramatically. It will be interesting to watch how the populace will turn on the police at the protests. Like in the 60's/70's they'll be called "pigs" again as the mob seeks someone to be mad at. Fear will hit a high near the end of the year when the "sheeple" get swept up in "Mayan calendar mania". The chaos around the world might resemble Armageddon, but as we now know, it's just the season of "winter". Who knows what the "crazies" might do on December 21. The Mayans were amazing astronomers and understood cycles very well. 2012 for the ending of a long term cycle and the beginning of a new one might be very fitting. The ending of a cycle isn't the end of the world, it's just an inflection point where change is more rapid than normal. Despite Obama's slogan "hope and change", people actually don't like change. Mammals herd and like consistency. It will be one of many interesting observation moments in 2012.
Military conflict: It will continue on in the existing areas, re-ignite in historic areas, and start somewhere where we don't expect it. The U.S. citizens started to fragment in 2011 on the pro-war issue. Anti-military sentiment is gaining steam. Afghanistan and Iraq has worn everyone out, especially our troops who have done multiple tours. Post-tour suicide is at record levels. When will the citizens turn against the soldiers when they return home like in the 60's? Not quite yet.
Newt barely wins the election beating a new Democrat candidate and independent Ron Paul. What happened to Obama? Unfortunately, "the man" will do his thing and remove him from the race. Ron Paul will solidify the concept of a third party for 2016 when things are really "in the tank".
Extremism will continue on many fronts. Confirm your beliefs, because they will be challenged. The mammals herd, so if you are different, that might be an issue.
Protests and Revolutions: both will continue to escalate. Americans will be shocked when we have our first "Kent State-like" event in the U.S. Our short memories will go into shock. The international revolutions will continue to cascade across the globe. Like in Egypt and Libya, afterwards the revolters will have to contemplate "what now". Chaos might not seem as good compared to the structure and consistency of a dictatorship and communism.
European Union: some default and get kicked out. Some threaten departure. The "One World Order" folks believe that we're heading to one currency. I argue the opposite. During contractions we herd with those like us. The EU will implode in the coming years. 2011 revealed many weak points. The European countries never stopped loving their own currencies. Currency wars will be one source point for wild financial market swings. Everyone is in competition to debase their currency. Inflate away the debt is the current theory.
Xenophobia will continue. The anti-Muslim sentiment will reach higher levels. Everyone will seek someone to blame for their challenges. Tie in a little religion and you have quite a "powder keg". As the Great Contraction continues, Mexicans will keep heading home. Once complete, all will realize that our "money printing" was like a magnetic force pulling legals and illegals into our country. Without them, who would have built all of those strip malls, houses, and interstate widening projects? Who would have done our lawn while we were at the office day trading DotCom stocks? Who would have watched our babies while we were at the birthday lunches at Tommy Bahamas? Who would have cleaned the 10 toilets in our McMansion?
Default: countries, cities, municipalities, companies, organizations, and individuals will choose the route of defaulting on their debt. U.S. homeowners will choose the "walk on the mortgage" option. Many will stay in their "free house" until forced to leave. Now that's entitlement!
Financial markets will be majorly chaotic and overall contracting. Many "flash crashes". Tremors and tremors before the Big Quake. Bernanke and Geitner will be ousted at some point and blamed for more than they should be. Greenspan escaped just in time.
Commodities still run wild spiking up and down. Gold will continue to shine.
Oil skyrockets not due to "true" demand, but due to geopolitical situations. Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz last week. Look out. U.S. citizens will remain in denial that it's a consumption issue, not a supply issue. Peak Oil conversations will broaden with new participants taking part in the discussion. Shale oil will make the discussion even more confusing.
Religion: it will continue its slow progression back towards traditional. Extreme religious behavior will continue to become more prevalent. How we differ will become more important than how we are the same. You say God, I say Alla or Yahweh. Herding mammals like their own. Mega-church millionaire ministers will start to see there empires contract just as they expanded in the "Super Size Me Era". Church closings might start to resemble retail closings. The mega-church may have spread "too thin" with all of the franchise locations. Powerful religious leaders could be at risk. Secure the "pope-mobile". I've stated before that I believe Northern Ireland to be an important area to watch. Christian vs Christian violence, in my mind, is outrageously hypocritical. If this long term conflict heats up again, it will signal something important. A new level will have been reached.
Bad guys: I'll continue to state that the future bad guys won't be male Muslim youth like the Fox News Mafia want us to believe. Like the crazy guy who shot Rep. Gab Gifford or the lunatic that murdered all of the children in Norway, it will be a white male. I still state that a big event will be done in the "name of God". Religion will be intertwined. Somehow some nut will proclaim that he was trying to save us all from ourselves. Yes, that is needed, but by a drastically different approach.
Politics: retire before it's too late. Incumbents will be decimated in 2012 elections. The entire "Super Size Me Era" will fall in your lap as blame. Sorry, but the timing "is what it is".
Banks: Bank of America and Chase will have major issues. I exited both last Friday. Default and government takeover will be the norm.
Derivatives: Remember the "Oracle of Omaha" called them "weapons of mass destruction". Derivatives are "bets" and there is always a loser on one side. They are also options where only a minor amount of capital is committed, but controls a much larger amount of capital. The mortgage crisis was about derivatives. I posted many years ago that derivatives will be the "root cause" of the major financial meltdown. One writer called them "the 600 TRILLION dollar time bomb". When these "go south", it is rapid. It will be a monumental "domino effect". No one really even knows what they are. Derivatives. Credit default swaps. Collateralized debt obligation. What does it all mean? When it goes down, everyone will say "how did this happen?".
Saints upset the Packers in the NFC championship and defeat the Patriots in the Superbowl.
LSU beats Bama by 14 to become national champs for the third time in the Superdome in one decade.
Tebow mania will be shortlived. Tim Tebow will not be an NFL starter by the midpoint of next season. Great guy. Great story, but it won't last.

GOOD NEWS
I promised some didn't I? That was just exhausting!
The most significant good news is that we're evolving back to a better way of life. Families will move back geographically closer together. Materialism won't be our main focus. Living a more simple, meaningful life will. Bigger won't be better. Balanced will. Fast will become slower. We might notice a few things that we missed when travelling at 100 mph. Our religious beliefs will become deeper and eventually we will evolve back to core beliefs that will drive different behavior. The "prosperity gospel" will transition back to The Gospels. Smaller retirement accounts will be challenging, but smaller waistlines will offset the difference. U.S. children will slowly evolve from obese/sedentary/diabetic to leaders in worldwide science and math scores. We will return to higher moral standards. Television will slowly evolve back to respectable content. Maybe "Leave It To Beaver", "The Brady Bunch", and "The Cosbys" will make a comeback.

Will 2012 be "the bottom"? Unfortunately, I don't think so. I believe that 2016 will present a financial market bottom and that the markets will bounce sideways until 2025. That's when the growth cycle will start again. The sign will be when the masses hate equities and are obsessed with precious metals and CD's. The chart below depicts the slow recovery of the Great Depression. The 1929 crash was only the start. A continual downward spiral followed. The quotes from the president and their timeliness are amazing.

My same recommendations from the past years:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

The Herd Gets Armed

2011-12-29T09:43:00.000-06:00

It appears that the herd and the angry mob are getting armed.

"The FBI said the number of people who got background checks to buy guns for December had already broken a record, and that was with several days left in the month."
Source: BayouBuzz.com
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/louisiana-local-news/baton-rouge-news/414722-gun-sales-set-record-this-month

The Union Herd

2011-12-16T21:15:00.000-06:00

Strikes and protests everywhere. The NBA barely survived the death of a season. What's the next big strike? I predict that it will be in the transportation sector. That's the one that always brings things to a halt....literally.

"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'".
Random Roving, November 24, 2009

The Occupy Prediction

2011-12-14T21:14:00.000-06:00

The Random Roving archive produced this gem that might explain the roots of the Occupy movement.

"What's the uneducated, entitled angry mob going to do?"

Random Roving, December 1, 2009

Another Mega-Implosion

2011-12-04T21:58:00.000-06:00

"At the height of his power, Bishop Eddie L. Long would pack tens of thousands of people into his megachurch in the suburbs of Atlanta. With his well-cut suits, passion for Bentleys, and dynamic, accessible style of preaching, he quickly climbed the list of the nation’s most powerful religious leaders. He built his ministry, which stretches to Kenya and other countries, on a strong message of conservative Christianity that included promises of prosperity and attacks on homosexuality. But life inside Bishop Long’s home had been crumbling. And on Sunday, members of his dwindling congregation heard news they had been bracing for. Their charismatic bishop, who in May settled with five young men who accused him of sexual coercion and who has fought a series of other legal battles, said he was temporarily stepping away from the pulpit to try to save his marriage."
Source: NY Times

Some key "takeaway" words from the snippet above: "height of his power", "passion for Bentleys", "most powerful religious leaders", "promises of prosperity", "crumbling", and "charismatic". Is 2011 the year of the demise of the world's charismatic leaders? What will 2012 look like?

"Religion will become smaller, 'deeper', and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen 'the peak'. Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

Not On The Radar

2011-11-18T09:19:00.000-06:00

"Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

"A man clad in black who was obsessed with President Barack Obama pulled his car within view of the White House at night and fired shots from an assault rifle, cracking a window of the first family's living quarters while the president was away, authorities said about their still-developing investigation. Sources tell CBS News Ortega-Hernandez was not on the radar of the Secret Service before Friday's shooting. But investigators believe he may have targeted the White House due to a hatred of President Obama. Businessman Monte McCall, said Ortega-Hernandez compared the president to the 'Antichrist' when they met recently. Authorities are investigating the man's mental health and say there are indications he believed attacking the White House was part of a personal mission from God, according to two different law enforcement officials who spoke with The Associated Press."

Source: CBS News

"Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the 'fall guy' and historically during 'inflection points' those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The 'mob' has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 23, 2008

For years, the "Fox News Mafia" has had us focused on Middle Eastern Muslim men. I predict that the next "big boogeyman" will be one of us. It proved to be in Norway earlier this year.

"After being apprehended, Breivik was characterized by police officials as being a right-wing extremist and an Islamophobe. Breivik is described by the newspaper Verdens Gang as considering himself a conservative nationalist. According to The Australian, Breivik was highly critical of Muslim immigration into Christian societies, is pro-Israel and an admirer of the US Tea Party movement. Deputy police chief Roger Andresen initially told reporters that 'We have no more information than... what has been found on [his] own websites, which is that it goes towards the right and that it is, so to speak, Christian fundamentalist.'"

Source: Wikipedia

"This is the astonishingly detailed 1,500-page manifesto published on the internet by Anders Behring Breivik on Friday, hours before he carried out his attacks which would leave at least 93 dead. The document, named 2083 - A European Declaration of Independence because he believes the war to rescue Europe from multiculturalism will last another 72 years, is published under the anglicised name 'Andrew Berwick - London, England, 2011'. Chillingly, it features a claim that Breivik is just one of 12 members of a secret right-wing anti-multicultural, anti-Marxist, anti-feminist, anti-Islamic society, the 'Knights Templar' founded in London in April 2002."

Source: Daily Mail

Silvio & JoePa

2011-11-14T09:32:00.000-06:00

Many websites report the news and regurgitate the Associated Press. Here my goal is to attempt to connect the dots. So, linking Italy's PM and college football coach Joe Paterno means what?

One of the core themes of this blog is that humans herd and subsequently create cycles of "mass" behavior through history. This can be observed in financial markets, war cycles, politics, fashion, pop culture, and many other categories.

We all know that the recent events at Penn State are a tragedy. What's significant to me is how quickly legendary coach Joe Paterno was terminated. He is guilty in part, but lets face it, he didn't perform the hideous crimes. The conclusion is, during contracting cycles where mass social mood dominates in "fearful and angry", icons fall quickly. The mob moves quickly and topples the ones that once stood on a pedestal. In contrast, during expansion cycles, icons survive great controversies. Bill Clinton's sexual encounter with a young intern might be the best example of all time. Many still believe that he was one of the greatest presidents of all time. Well timed bad behavior.

Jumping across "the pond", Italy's Prime Minister is sacked after serving 17 years in office. Do the people of Italy really believe that putting a new person in office immediately solves the debt crisis? No, they are just angry and "lynching" feels good. Many more leaders and icons will tumble. Libya might be a great microcosm where one asks the question "ok, now what?".

"Silvio Berlusconi dominated Italy for 17 years with a unique mix of political talent and brazen behavior but in the end the born showman was humiliatingly jeered from office, brought down by pressure from abroad. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi formally resigned on Saturday, ending one of the most scandal-plagued eras in recent Italian history amid the jeers of hundreds of protestors gathered in central Rome to celebrate his departure."
Source: Reuters

"The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 30, 2008

Occupy Mises

2011-11-09T19:05:00.000-06:00

"Value is not intrinsic, it is not in things. It is within us; it is the way in which man reacts to the conditions of his environment."

Ludwig von Mises, "Human Action"

Understand & Occupy This

2011-11-08T19:43:00.008-06:00

Trouble In The Trough

2011-11-08T09:09:00.001-06:00

The PIIGS continue to lead the worldwide news stories. Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain. Greece, and now Italy, appear to be on the forefront. It's amazing that the sheeple believe that removing the prime ministers solves the debt problem. Going to be interesting to watch!

"The PIIGS continue to lead the pack to destruction."
Random Roving, January 1, 2011

Clusters & The Machine

2011-11-06T19:26:00.000-06:00

"To deny the reality that large clusters of human beings tend to act with a herd mentality is contrary to all visible evidence. The herd mentality can be observed in the Dot-com bubble, Americans unquestioningly allowing passage of the Patriot Act, the housing bubble, the mass hysteria over the latest iSomething, Black Friday riots at retail stores to obtain the 'hottest' toy or gadget, and the slaves to the latest fashions and trends as directed by the corporate media machine. The masses don’t realize they are being manipulated by the few who understand the power of propaganda."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

The entire article:
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=22946

Lonely At The Top

2011-11-03T12:35:00.000-05:00

The Greek Prime Minister teeters between resignation and securing a debt deal with his former EU buddies.
"Even if he survives the coming hours or days in office, the prime minister is widely seen as having expended nearly all his political capital. Ever since Greece asked for a bailout from the European Union in April 2010, he has struggled to satisfy seemingly irreconcilable constituencies: the Greek electorate and Greece’s foreign lenders, who have insisted on tough austerity measures in exchange for aid, pushing Greek democracy to the breaking point."

Source: NY Times
"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

Here Comes The Tear Gas

2011-10-26T07:32:00.001-05:00

The tear gas appears right on schedule.

"Authorities made a series of arrests at Occupy Wall Street protests in California and Georgia on Tuesday with clashes in one city that involved tear gas being used on demonstrators. Police said they fired the tear gas on protesters in Oakland, California, after the crowd threw paint and other objects at officers."
Source: CNN

You were warned....you say "it can't happen here?":
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/04/onion-peels-in-argentina.html

"One of Robert Prechter's main themes for the downward contraction is the escalation of social unrest. Along with this comes a power struggle between the government and the people. As Americans, what should we prepare for?"
Random Roving, December 12, 2008

Angry Birds

2011-10-21T05:26:00.002-05:00

"We're in an Angry Birds kind of world, unfortunately. One of the reasons for this is that too many people are focusing on what isn't working and less on what is. Instead of promoting solutions, there seems to be a 'tear it down' atmostphere at every level of society."
Cal Thomas, Conservative Columnist
Source: CNN

"As social mood becomes more positive people become more confident trusting and content. They feel little need to prepare a defensive or offensive force. As social mood becomes more negative, people become more fearful, distrusting, and angry. They are impelled to prepare to defend themselves or attack an enemy."

Elliott Wave Theorist, 1999

German Vampires

2011-10-20T09:26:00.001-05:00

"'We are not lazy; it's the Germans, they want to take our blood,' said Eleftherios Zarkados (Greek citizen)."

Source: CNN

"Organizations like the European Union are in the process of 'fragmenting'. During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel 'the pain', their partners in the EU will continue to ask 'why are we being dragged down by them?'."

Random Roving, March 30, 2010

Vladimir Doesn't Waste Any Time

2011-10-15T09:29:00.002-05:00

Mr. Putin appears to be on a roll. Parasite? Ouch.
"Russia and China have vowed to make progress on a long-delayed deal on gas sales, as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin sought to boost ties with Beijing while likening the U.S. to a parasite."
Source: Time.com

Ten-Tola's Anyone?

2011-10-14T09:22:00.006-05:00

"The recent violent volatility in gold prices is disrupting traditional buying patterns in Dubai, with customers moving from jewelry to bullion as they renew a focus on the yellow metal's investment potential, a trend that is prompting more city jewelers to stock gold in the form of coins and bars. Dubai, known as the city of gold, is a long-established market for bullion and wholesale and retail jewelry. Its trade is fueled by demand from India, the world's number one gold consumer, and domestic consumption which, at 19 tons in the second quarter of 2011, makes the United Arab Emirates the second-largest consumer of gold jewelry and bullion in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia. Whereas traditional retail demand was for jewelry, there has been a change in buying patterns, said Pradeep Unni, senior relationship manager at Richcomm Global Services, a Dubai-based commodity services company and a broker of the Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange, or DGCX, which trades a gold futures contract. Earlier while women would buy gold in the form of jewelry, now one can see men, finding themselves with a bit of spare cash, go into a jewelry shop and buying ten-tola bars," he says. A ten-tola bar, called TT bar in the trade, is a traditional Indian measure of weight that equals 3.75 ounces."
Source: Wall Street Journal

Riggin' & Exiting

2011-10-13T05:19:00.007-05:00

“'I don’t think it’s a time to make money -- this is a time to rig for survival,' said Charles Stevenson, 64, president of hedge fund Navigator Group Inc. and head of the co-op board at 740 Park Ave. The building, home to Blackstone Group LP Chairman Stephen Schwarzman and CIT Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer John Thain, was among those picketed by protesters yesterday. 'The future is not going to be like a past we knew,' he said. 'There’s no exit from this morass.'"

Source: Bloomberg

From Pepper to Teargas?

2011-10-12T09:17:00.000-05:00

Does pepper spray precede teargas? It appears that these minimum wage earning security guards had their hands full at the Smithsonian.

"We have a generation of kids waking up to the reality that their parents have not only indebted them for life, but also destroyed their current job market and prospects. Kent State might end up looking like a mild one when this one peaks. Cutting off cell phones and internet access will really get these kids fired up! 'I want my MTV!'"
Random Roving, December 12, 2009

"One of Robert Prechter's main themes for the downward contraction is the escalation of social unrest. Along with this comes a power struggle between the government and the people. As Americans, what should we prepare for?"
Random Roving, December 12, 2008

Occupy What?

2011-10-11T22:03:00.000-05:00

Jimmy Kimmel might have summed up the "Occupy Movement" when he captured "Occupy Wall Street" protestors saying this, "What do we want? We're not really sure! When do we want it? Now!"

Fear and anger without any direction or leadership might not progress far. An angry leader has to appear. Stay tuned.

Competition For 3rd Place Begins

2011-10-07T04:19:00.000-05:00

"The next four years will be very challenging on all fronts. As I've stated before, the economic cycle is must stronger than a political party or individual politicians. The psychology of the masses will drive the direction. I believe that the Democrats will be navigating the ship through major rogue waves. At the end of that process, the party will be in shambles. At that point, the masses will be disenchanted with both parties. At 'the bottom', there will be a third party that finally gains some steam and becomes a viable competitor. That party will probably be somewhere in the middle."
Random Roving, November 8, 2008

"The coalition of thousands of anti- Wall Street protesters in New York and cities across the U.S. has the potential to grow into the 'Tea Party of the Left,' said Brayden King, who’s written on social and political movements at Northwestern University."
Source: Bloomberg

This will be fun to watch. Red vs Blue Tea Parties!

And The Next Hoffa Will Be?

2011-10-06T14:11:00.001-05:00

Jimmy Riddle Hoffa

"The cavalry arrived in Lower Manhattan. Representatives from no fewer than 15 of the country's largest labor unions joined the Occupy Wall Street protesters for a mass rally and march today in New York City."

Source: ABC

"The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'."

Random Roving, November 24, 2009

Who will be the "Hoffa" of this era?

That Didn't Take Long

2011-10-05T16:07:00.001-05:00

It seemed like yesterday that I made a Putin post?!?! He doesn't waste any time.
"One week after announcing that he will return to the presidency next year Vladimir Putin has laid out a grand vision to bring Russia's former Soviet neighbours back into the fold. Putin proposes the formation of a 'Eurasian union', a bloc that could boost Russia's influence on the global stage. The proposal – from the man who once dubbed the Soviet Union's collapse 'the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century' – raises the spectre of the Russian prime minister's imperial designs."
Source: The Guardian

Remember, when mass social mood is focused on "fear and anger", the herd moves closer together. Picture that herd of sheep when the wolf appears atop the hillside.

Michael Lewis On Charlie Rose

2011-10-04T22:04:00.000-05:00

This is a fascinating interview (2nd half about Iceland, Ireland, and Greece).
http://www.charlierose.com/

Now The Prisoners?

2011-10-04T16:05:00.000-05:00

Protesting Protection

2011-10-04T08:26:00.001-05:00

In a scenario similar to the police in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, the Greek police have now decided to protest. So who arrests the non-police protestors?

"The very people who have been charged with protecting the Greek parliament and politicians from furious crowds and who have even been criticised by Amnesty International for their heavy-handedness, the Greek police, have themselves now begun to protest EU-IMF austerity. On Monday, police from the Special Guards unit climbed Mount Lycabettus, the highest point in Athens, to hang a giant black banner underneath the hill’s famous Chapel of St. George saying 'Pay day, day of mourning'. Some 50 striking police officers protected the banner from police who remained in service and who had been sent to tear the banner down."
Source: EU Observer

The Onion Starts To Peel in the U.S.?

2011-10-03T08:20:00.001-05:00

"Protesters have descended on Boston’s Financial District, setting up a tent village and decrying what they see as the economic hardships of ordinary Americans - one of several such demonstrations erupting across the country. The group, called Occupy Boston, is inspired by Occupy Wall Street, a demonstration entering its third week in Manhattan’s Financial District that led to the arrest of 700 people Saturday on charges of blocking the Brooklyn Bridge. The effort has spread to several communities nationwide, with tens of thousands of people participating."
Source: Boston.com

I'm still dumbfounded that my 2009 post, "The Onion Peels In Argentina" has captured 17254 views representing 47% of all posts on this blog. I've revisited the page many times, and conclude that the combination of "a picture is worth a 1000 words" and a variety of hot topics explain the popularity.

Recent news of protests in the U.S. confirm that the N. African protests are not about youth seeking democracy. It's about a worldwide populace continuing the evolution across a new phase of the cycle where "fear and anger" are the dominant emotions. Happy and greedy peaked in July, 1999.

He's Baaaaaaack

2011-09-24T09:40:00.002-05:00

"Ruh-roh" Scooby Doo

"Vladimir V. Putin, who for more than a decade has labored to consolidate authority in Russia under his control, will run for president next year, replacing his protégé, Dmitri A. Medvedev, and possibly extending his rule until 2024. Analysts have long speculated that Mr. Medvedev would act as a placeholder for Mr. Putin, who can now legally return to the presidency for a third term after spending four years as prime minister."

Source: NY Times

It's not like he ever left, did he?

"Sleep securely, our new leadership is in place. I hope that Putin doesn't get a hold of him!"
Random Roving, January 7, 2011

Regulatory Coordination

2011-09-22T09:47:00.000-05:00

Printing money like mad-men is bad enough, but removing the "short" option really tells you something.
"Short-selling bans on selected European bank stocks have been extended by regulators until the end of September in an unprecedented degree of regulatory co-ordination."
Source: FT

Opa All Over Again?

2011-09-19T10:15:00.001-05:00

As Yogi Berra might say "is it Opa all over again?".

"European stock markets fell sharply on Monday, with banks like Societe Generale SA sinking on concerns Greece could default on its debt ahead of crisis talks aimed at determining whether the embattled nation gets the next round of much-needed aid."
Market Watch, 9/19/11

"We are moving apart. Organizations like the European Union are in the process of "fragmenting". During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel "the pain", their partners in the EU will continue to ask 'why are we being dragged down by them?'."
Random Roving, March 30, 2010

Opa 1

Opa 2

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The Sabbatical Has Ended

2011-08-19T21:18:00.000-05:00

I had to take a "random" sabbatical to "rove" into a new blog. That has gained momentum, so it's time to get back to the "big picture". After watching the news tonight, I was reviewing some old posts, and I thought that this one was worth a repost.

Be Careful What You Wish For (Original Post: 11/8/08)
It's only been three days since the election and fireworks are popping on all fronts. The Democrats are euphoric, the Republicans angry, McCain and Palin camps are fighting, and the stock market returned to it's inevitable downward spiral.
I've had the opportunity the last few days to visit with members of both teams. The Democrats are just plain giddy over the "butt spanking" that they successfully delivered. After a close Gore loss and a Kerry defeat, it appears that there was some pent up frustration. My Republican friends are very angry and have declared an end to the world. Some have even defined the moment as biblical prophecy. I had the great pleasure to golf with my favorite registered Republican this week and his four favorite words were: Stalinist, Marxist, Socialist, and U.S.S.A.

It's amazing in only three days to see the "blame game" commence on all fronts. The Democrats are saying "you see I told you that the country wanted change". The McCain camp is firing shots at Sarah Palin. This one shocked me. Palin appeared to give it her best shot. She started the process off dealing with the fact that the whole world knew that her teenage daughter had just become pregnant. She weathered some bad interviews and most of all the brutal depiction on SNL. Great fun unless it's you. My favorite registered Republican told me yesterday that Bush was a great guy for extending an invitation to the Obamas to tour the White House. I say that it would be an honorable guesture for McCain to hold a press conference today and state his appreciation for Palin's effort. Lets all be honest. McCain was a washed up candidate and the Republicans should have been able to pitch a stronger, fresher candidate. To blame your VP partner is weak.
On the flip side, I say to my Democrat friends "be careful what you wish for". The Democrats have complete control over the near future. For that, they will be given complete credit for 100% of what happens. The Republicans are already blaming Obama for the stock market drops the last two days. That's despite the fact that it's down 34% for the year under the Bush administration. The next four years will be very challenging on all fronts. As I've stated before, the economic cycle is must stronger than a political party or individual politicians. The psychology of the masses will drive the direction. I believe that the Democrats will be navigating the ship through major rogue waves. At the end of that process, the party will be in shambles. At that point, the masses will be disenchanted with both parties. At "the bottom", there will be a third party that finally gains some steam and becomes a viable competitor. That party will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Copper Anyone?

2011-06-08T13:06:00.000-05:00

I talk too much about gold, a little about silver, so how about copper?? Looks interesting!

The Contracting Mega-Church

2011-05-29T07:52:00.000-05:00

"The streets that were once choked with traffic are now bare. The church's sprawling parking lot is half full. Inside the stylish sanctuary, ushers sway to choir music in front of empty seats. On a typical Sunday morning, New Birth Missionary Church in suburban Atlanta would be hopping. But on a recent Sunday, the sprawling church complex looked half-deserted and the mood seemed flat. Six months after a sex scandal involving New Birth's senior pastor, Bishop Eddie Long, became public, the megachurch no longer packs them in. Yet there are loyalists, like C.D. Dixon, who have not joined the exodus."
Source: CNN

"The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen 'the peak'. Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals."
Random Roving, "Happy New Year 2010 is Here", January 1, 2010

Dipping In Silver

2011-05-24T09:06:00.000-05:00

"I've spent a lot of time pitching gold, but not enough on silver. It's been on fire lately. The ETF "SLV" provides a nice purchase option."

Random Roving, October 4, 2010

SLV made over a 100% gain after that post. The "slope of the sand pile" then became a little too steep. The naysayers say that the commodities run is over. I disagree. The Dow/Gold Ratio indicates that we're in for several more years of precious metal price growth. I bought some more SLV today on this nice dip.

Silver ETF "SLV"

Newt's Bumpy Start

2011-05-24T07:19:00.002-05:00

Well as predicted, Newt has made it official. He's already making apologies for campaign speeches. It will be very interesting to watch him rise to Team Red's #1 candidate. Why will he? He's a "known quantity", calm demeanor during chaotic times, and they'll build a link from him to The Gipper. Just watch.

"The fear factor is very powerful and effective. Newt is starting to use it to emerge as the frontrunner for Team Red."
Random Roving, September 29, 2010

"Lets see if Newt, their link to The Gipper, will be their man."
Random Roving, January 24, 2011

Contracting Heroes

2011-05-23T08:58:00.002-05:00

"It will be interesting to see if the downward 'draft' of mass social mood takes down cycling champion, Lance Armstrong. Tiger might say that "the draft" makes everyone vulnerable."

Random Roving, August 9, 2010

If you watched 60 Minutes last night, you might respond to the above, "yes". It was a scathing interview with the former "boy scout" of the tour, Tyler Hamilton. We'll have to wait and see what the "mass mood" has in store for Armstrong.

Utah Takes The Lead On Coins

2011-05-23T07:47:00.000-05:00

Utah legislators want to see the dollar regain its former glory, back to the days when one could literally bank on it being "as good as gold."

Utah gets it. Is this a start to a trend?

"Utah legislators want to see the dollar regain its former glory, back to the days when one could literally bank on it being 'as good as gold'. To make that point, they've turned it around, and made gold as good as cash. Utah became the first state in the country this month to legalize gold and silver coins as currency. The law also will exempt the sale of the coins from state capital gains taxes."
Source: AP

Entire article:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iVwtsZHKs7A_uQEDwUlnH2P1jJ3Q?docId=fdc78f4b243f4e1facc5982a1fc02836

Osama, Obama, and Slap Ya Mama

2011-05-02T21:59:00.000-05:00

Well The Boogeyman is dead....or is he? Big bad Obama knocked off big bad Osama. And so these modern day "Crusades" continue on. We might have just entered the next era. So I assume our troops are heading home...right?

It will be fun to watch the battle for the credit. It might resemble when Reagan took office and witnessed the release of the Iranian hostages. Bring on 2012!

And yes, try that "Slap Ya Mama" seasoning for your next crawdaddy boil...great stuff! I needed a third rhyme!

Life Beyond The Known

2011-05-01T10:18:00.001-05:00

"Many people are afraid of the world beyond their door, yet the vast majority of humans are not thieves, murderers or rapists. They are people just like you and me who are trying to get by, to help their families and go about living their lives. There is no race, religion or nationality that is exempt from this rule. How they go about living their lives might be different, but their general goals are the same."
Tim Ferriss

Randomness and Anti-Fragility

2011-04-30T01:00:00.005-05:00

"I think that an oil shock would be very good because we need to be trained to finally give up on these stupid cars. We have so many alternative sources, and people are too lazy. We need to enhance anti-fragility in this area. You can move from wild randomness into mild randomness by creating some. It is like hormesis: You give someone a little bit of poison and they get stronger. Economic life gets stronger not with bailouts, but with bankruptcies."
Nassim Taleb

An excellent read:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2755

The Cooperative Metal

2011-04-29T10:53:00.000-05:00

Gold has now sustained its price above the psychological barrier of $1500/ounce. At this present moment, it's selling for $1544/ounce. Unbelievable to some. Right on track for others. The best part about gold to date is that it's cooperated so well from a technical chart perspective. It builds nice long bases and conforms to pattern prediction such as the "reverse head and shoulders". Of course, this cooperation can change tomorrow. There is concern as Robert Prechter warns that "everything is up". Commodities and equities were moving in similar tandem leading up to the 2008 crash.

My recent picks were quite good it I don't say so myself.

Gold ETF "GLD" with recent buy points.

Happy Easter

2011-04-24T10:40:00.001-05:00

I wish everyone a blessed Easter!

A re-post of some wise words from the late Father David Kirk:

"If you want to find God, really find God, go to where people are suffering. There, if you can open your eyes to the needs of others, and let your heart respond to see.....you're in for a great adventure! May this Sunday be a day for beginning to DO the word of God and not simple hear the word of God. Amen."

A Fourth Turning Update

2011-04-19T22:42:00.000-05:00

"The storyline promulgated by the mainstream linear thinking opinion leaders is the economy is recovering, the banking system is sound, the stock market is booming, buying a house is a great investment, inflation is below 2%, jobs are being created, and consumers have regained their confidence and spending power. This message is hammered home on a daily basis by the corporate run mainstream media. It is patently false and the thinking members of the American public know it. The economic condition of the country is rapidly deteriorating. While politicians posture and lie to the citizens, the fissures in our financial system grow wider. As of today, regeneracy and unification behind one common national purpose seems light years away. Strauss & Howe speculated in 1997 about potential events that could spur events during the next Fourth Turning.The event necessary to cause a regeneracy in this country will need to be on an epic scale. Based upon a review of the foreseeable issues confronting our society it is clear to me that a worse financial implosion will strike before the 2012 presidential election. It may be triggered by a debt ceiling confrontation, the ending of QE2, a panic out of the USD, hyperinflation, a surge in oil prices, or some combination of these possibilities. The ensuing collapse of the stock and bond markets will remove the last vestiges of trust in the existing financial system and the government bureaucrats who have taken taxpayer dollars and funneled them to these Wall Street oligarchs."
James Quinn, "The Burning Platform"

A must read article:
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=14483

A Day In The Fed's Vault

2011-04-14T01:00:00.003-05:00

Michael Lewis published a great article yesterday regarding The Fed and their recent practices. Great stuff:

"Last week the Federal Reserve bravely released 894 PDF files containing 29,346 pages that detailed its heroic actions during the financial crisis. These documents revealed how open-minded the Fed can be when it needs to be. Local governments in Belgium, Japanese fishing cooperatives, the Libyan government and many other unlikely parties received the Fed’s financial aid. Failing U.S. banks, such as Citigroup and Morgan Stanley (MS), were of course handed whatever they wanted, and permitted to post as collateral pretty much anything they could get their hands on: junk bonds, defaulted debt, volatile equities. To naive critics this came as just more evidence that the Fed had mistaken the wants of a handful of rich people for the needs of the wider society. Many Fed spokesmen have wisely declined to comment, many times. Upon seeing how incapable the public is of understanding its wisdom, the Fed judiciously elected to withhold a second, far longer document."
Michael Lewis

The entire article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-12/the-fed-rescue-program-too-bizarre-to-be-true-commentary-by-michael-lewis.html

The 3 C's

2011-04-13T11:34:00.000-05:00

"The circumstances that got us here will not lead us out. Watchwords for the future: Community, cooperation & co-dependance at a local level."
The Automatic Earth
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

Limitless Growth

2011-04-10T08:53:00.001-05:00

"Nothing in conventional economics of any flavor suggests how to create 'growth' when oil is scarce/rationed and it costs $300 per barrel. Having been conceived in daylight, conventional economics has never experienced darkness, and has no way to conceptualize a world without 'limitless growth.'"
Charles Hugh Smith

Cocaine Crazed Lab Rats

2011-04-06T07:55:00.002-05:00

"The Keynesian experiment is being extended to its ultimate point of failure.Interestingly, China, Europe, Japan and the U.S. are all pursuing the same Keynesian credit-expansion Grand Strategy. It is the single tool available to States and Central Banks imprisoned by conventional economic theories, and they are hitting that single policy switch like cocaine-crazed lab rats clamoring for another hit."
Charles Hugh Smith

Buy On The Cheap

2011-04-05T01:00:00.000-05:00

"Most Americans know little about gold. While they sleep, we buy on the cheap."
Sean Broderick, Weiss Research

Time To Pause And Reflect?

2011-03-30T01:00:00.000-05:00

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."
Mark Twain

The Crash Course - The Book

2011-03-29T01:00:00.002-05:00

Way back in April 2009, I highly encouraged everyone to view Chris Martenson's "Crash Course". Martenson has just released a book on the same topic. I devoured it this weekend. He's done an amazing job of quantifying the status of numerous key elements affecting our small world. I highly recommend reading it.

The Crash Course can be viewed at:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/

Rendezvous With Destiny

2011-03-28T08:31:00.000-05:00

“There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations, much is given. Of other generations, much is expected. This Generation has a rendezvous with destiny.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt

Teachers & Tomahawks

2011-03-22T22:23:00.002-05:00

"You can't fire teachers and tomahawk missiles simultaneously!"
Jon Stewart

We're All In

2011-03-21T18:16:00.000-05:00

I just love listening to Team Red and Blue continue to blame each other for everything. The chart below confirms the responsibility. The answer: they all participated and we did too by accepting "the credit". Remember "no interest loans"? Zero percent financing? 4% mortgage refinance?

While Bush I was held back by Sir Greenspan, he wanted to print as much as the others. This curve is looking outrageously steep too!

True Money Supply (Source: Agora Capital)

Sayonara Sarah

2011-03-17T10:17:00.006-05:00

"Sarah Palin's favorability rating among Republicans continues to slide as the former vice presidential nominee mulls a White House bid, according to a new survey. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Wednesday indicates 58 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents give Palin high marks, a 30-point drop from her favorability rating among the same group in the weeks leading up to the 2008 presidential election. It also marks a 12-point drop from a Washington Post/ABC News poll last fall when the former Alaska governor traveled the country on behalf of a string of congressional candidates."

Source: CNN

"I may have missed my opportunity to 'call a top' to Palin's euphoric rise. The fact that some are trying to pin responsibility on her for the shootings in Tuscon might indicate she's 'playing the back nine' when it comes to popularity. The commencement of the reality show for sure will pinpoint the 'all time high'. It can only be downhill from here."
Random Roving, January 24, 2011

Another Steep Sandpile?

2011-03-16T07:47:00.000-05:00

This sandpile sure is looking steep to me. I compiled these on 2/10/11.

A Golden Earthquake Dip?

2011-03-16T07:46:00.000-05:00

On January 25, I made the pitch for a buy of GLD on the dip at 129/share. That one worked out really well. Maybe a buy today on this "earthquake dip" at 136 will be another steal.

Gold ETF (GLD)

The Mob Is On A Roll

2011-03-16T07:36:00.000-05:00

Chalk up another one for the angry mob!

"Miami-Dade County voters recalled their top elected official Tuesday, culminating an effort financed by a billionaire car dealer and fueled by frustrations over a poor economy and unpopular policy decisions. Some 88% of 200,347 voters elected to oust Republican Carlos Alvarez, with 707 of 829 precincts reporting, along with early and absentee ballots. Mr. Alvarez easily won re-election in 2008 as mayor of Miami-Dade, the county of 2.5 million residents that includes the city of Miami. But a recall effort gained momentum last fall when he agreed to a budget that raised the county's property taxes while increasing pay to unionized public employees. 'The voters have spoken and a time of healing and reconciliation must now begin,' Mr. Alvarez said in a statement Tuesday night. In an interview last week, Mr. Alvarez had said he would consider campaigning for his old job in a special election. But in the statement he sounded content. 'I wish the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County much success.'"
Source: Wall Street Journal

Entire article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704164204576203242339123856.html

Nukes Under Construction

2011-03-15T17:58:00.000-05:00

"The Daily Reckoning" reports that of the nuclear power plants that are currently under construction around the world, of these, 42% reside in China; 16% in Russia and 11% in India. The G-7 countries, combined, account for only 3% of all nuclear plants currently under construction.

With the recent events in Japan, the U.S. is unlikely to shift strategies anytime soon. Now the Chinese, well that's another story. I'm sure that they'll "stay the course" on their energy plan. How nice it must be to have one!

Japan's China Syndrome

2011-03-14T16:59:00.000-05:00

After reading articles about the Japanese nuclear reactor this weekend, I decided to watch the movie "China Syndrome". An interesting watch. With this current event in Japan, we've probably just pushed back any nuclear initiative another ten years. One should first ask the question, "should we build nuclear reactors on subduction zones known as 'The Ring of Fire?'". Obvious question today, but the entire country has this same geography problem. Japan has no natural resources and a nuclear initiative with an unstable subsurface. What's one to do?

This event will definitely push back the conversation.

Right On Track

2011-03-13T10:25:00.001-05:00

"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'"
Random Roving, November 24, 2009

"Unable to decide how to divvy up $9 billion a year, NFL owners and players put the country's most popular sport in limbo by breaking off labor negotiations hours before their contract expired. At midnight, as Friday became Saturday, the owners locked out the players -- creating the NFL's first work stoppage since 1987 and putting the 2011 season in jeopardy."
Source: TH Online

"Union leaders say they plan to use the passage of anti-union legislation in Wisconsin to fire up working people nationwide. The measure approved today takes away most bargaining rights for most public workers in Wisconsin. Union leaders say they'll mount a major counterattack against Republicans at the ballot box in 2012."
Source: 9&10 New

Earthquake Video Footage

2011-03-11T14:58:00.000-06:00

Unbelievable.

Practice What You Preach?

2011-03-11T14:32:00.000-06:00

Being nonpartisan and an independent thinker provides one the opportunity to laugh at news like the one posted below. Isn't it ironic that Team Red is preaching about decreasing spending, yet the RNC has $23 million in debt. Too funny. It's also been reported that former chairman Steele spend $2 million in his final two weeks. What a party that must have been!!

"As Republicans and Democrats prepare for what is sure to be a contentious 2012 election cycle, the Republican National Committee finds itself $23 million in debt, committee chairman Reince Priebus announced on Monday. Priebus said the RNC's year-end report would announce $21 million in debt for 2010, but that updated figures put the debt at approximately $23 million. 'While the year-end FEC report reveals the Republican National Committee is $21 million in debt, I believe it is best to get out all the facts as we know them associated with our financial position,' Priebus said in a statement. 'To date, the committee has approximately $23 million in debt: $15 million in loans, and $8 million owed to vendors.'"
Source: CBS News

We Are Small

2011-03-11T07:29:00.000-06:00

Another day that the earth reminds us how small we really are.

Funny The Way It Is

2011-03-10T19:32:00.000-06:00

"Funny The Way It Is" - Dave Matthews Band
Lying in the park on a beautiful day
Sunshine in the grass and the children play
Sirens pass in fire engine red
Someone's house is burning down on a day like this

The evening comes and we're hanging out
On the front step and a car goes by with the windows rolled down
And that War song is playing
"Why can't we be friends?"
Someone is screaming and crying in the apartment upstairs

Funny the way it is
If you think about it
Somebody's going hungry and someone else is eating out
Funny the way it is
Not right or wrong
Somebody's heart is broken and it becomes your favorite song

The way your mouth feels in your lover's kiss
Like a pretty bird on the breeze or water to a fish
A bomb blast brings the building crashing to the floor
Hear the laughter while the children play war

Funny the way it is
If you think about it
One kid walks ten miles to school, another's dropping out
Funny the way it is
Not right or wrong
On a soldier's last breath, his baby's being born

Standing on a bridge
Watch the water passing underneath
It must have been much harder when there was no bridge, just water
Now the world is small
Remember how it used to be
With mountains and oceans and winters and rivers and stars?

Watch the sky, a jet plane so far out of my reach
Is there someone up there looking down on me?
A boy sees a bird, so close but every time
He'll never catch her but he can't stop trying

Funny the way it is
If you think about it
One kid walks ten miles to school, another's dropping out
Funny the way it is
Not right or wrong
On a soldier's last breath, his baby's being born

Funny the way it is
Not right or wrong
Somebody's broken heart becomes your favorite song
Funny the way it is
If you think about it
One kid walks ten miles to school, another's dropping out

Standing on a bridge
Watch the water passing underneath
It must have been much harder when there was no bridge, just water
Now the world is small
Remember how it used to be
With mountains and oceans and winters and rivers and stars?

Deja Vu All Over Again?

2011-03-09T21:10:00.000-06:00

"We are spending more money than we have ever spent before, and it does not work... After eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started...and an enormous debt, to boot." Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau conceded to Congress in 1939

Shell's Energy Outlook

2011-03-07T13:01:00.000-06:00

Shell has released their perspective on the future of energy with two forecasts titled "Scramble" and "Blueprint". Take a moment to review:

http://www-static.shell.com/static/public/downloads/brochures/corporate_pkg/scenarios/shell_energy_scenarios_2050.pdf

Today's Tom Joad

2011-03-06T21:32:00.001-06:00

“And the great owners, who must lose their land in an upheaval, the great owners with access to history, with eyes to read history and to know the great fact: when property accumulates in too few hands it is taken away. And that companion fact: when a majority of the people are hungry and cold they will take by force what they need. And the little screaming fact that sounds through all history: repression works only to strengthen and knit the repressed.”
John Steinbeck – "Grapes of Wrath"

Kinda Corny

2011-02-24T01:00:00.002-06:00

"The smallest corn inventories in 37 years are a sign farmers around the globe are failing to produce enough grain to meet rising consumption, even as planting expands and food prices surge."
Source: Bloomberg

"Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

And yes, there is a corn ETF (symbol CORN).

Corn ETF

At The Foot Of The Volcano

2011-02-23T08:30:00.000-06:00

I always conclude one thing after reading a book or article written by Thomas Friedman, "the guy knows the Eastern geopolitical scene extremely well". His most recent NY Times article is significant:

"What’s unfolding in the Arab world today is the mother of all wake-up calls. And what the voice on the other end of the line is telling us is clear as a bell: 'America, you have built your house at the foot of a volcano. That volcano is now spewing lava from different cracks and is rumbling like it’s going to blow. Move your house!” In this case, “move your house” means “end your addiction to oil.” No one is rooting harder for the democracy movements in the Arab world to succeed than I am. But even if things go well, this will be a long and rocky road. The smart thing for us to do right now is to impose a $1-a-gallon gasoline tax, to be phased in at 5 cents a month beginning in 2012, with all the money going to pay down the deficit. Legislating a higher energy price today that takes effect in the future, notes the Princeton economist Alan Blinder, would trigger a shift in buying and investment well before the tax kicks in. With one little gasoline tax, we can make ourselves more economically and strategically secure, help sell more Chevy Volts and free ourselves to openly push for democratic values in the Middle East without worrying anymore that it will harm our oil interests. Yes, it will mean higher gas prices, but prices are going up anyway, folks. Let’s capture some it for ourselves."

Read the remainder of the article

Finally, The Truth

2011-02-21T09:10:00.001-06:00

The facade continues to crumble across the world, but we finally have one politician speaking the truth:

“For us, this is about balancing the budget. We've got a $3.6 billion budget deficit. We are broke. Just like nearly every other state across the country, we're broke. It's about time somebody stood up and told the truth.”
Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wisc., on “FOX News Sunday”

Meanwhile the jackasses that the Wisconsin people elected into office have fled the state. Unbelievable. Time to organize a sheriff's posse to go find them and put them behind bars.

The unions across the world continue to make the news. Hmmmmm.
"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'."
Random Roving, "Three Strikes You're Out", November 29, 2009

"Reading about the British Airways strike over the past week made me realize that organized labor strikes don't occur that much anymore. The last significant one that I remember was when The Gipper defeated the air traffic controllers. I quickly had the Google Elves do some research, and sure enough since 1980 (the beginning of the SuperSizeMe Era), strikes have basically been nonexistent....interesting. Does the British Airways strike signal a "change in trend"? The tea partiers probably think so. Stay tuned."
Random Roving, "3 Strikes, You're Out", March 27, 2010

On To Iran

2011-02-14T09:53:00.000-06:00

I can't say that I've ever heard a President or VP try to incite a riot in another country. Ole Joe had this to say:
“I say to our Iranian friends, let your people march, let your people speak, release your people from jail, let them have a voice.”

Source: The Courier Journal

All I can say is, "be careful what you wish for".

Gates On Rose

2011-02-12T22:55:00.001-06:00

I highly recommend that everyone watch this interview. The first part of the interview focuses on world health, and during the remainder of the interview, Gates speaks very frankly about some key issues facing the world. Watch and learn.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/content/11456

Contracting Multiculturalism

2011-02-10T22:17:00.001-06:00

"Nicolas Sarkozy declares multiculturalism had failed. French president Nicolas Sarkozy on Thursday declared that multiculturalism had failed, joining a growing number of world leaders or ex-leaders who have condemned it. 'We have been too concerned about the identity of the person who was arriving and not enough about the identity of the country that was receiving him,' he said in a television interview in which he declared the concept a 'failure'. Prime Minister David Cameron last month pronounced his country's long-standing policy of multiculturalism a failure, calling for better integration of young Muslims to combat home-grown extremism. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Australia's former prime minister John Howard and former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar have also in recent months said multicultural policies have not successfully integrated immigrants."
Source: The Telegraph

"Xenophobia is a powerful force in the down cycle."
Random Roving, October 9, 2007

Xenophobia continues to rise at an alarming rate.
Random Roving, November 6, 2009

"Although the language of race has rarely been explicitly invoked, terms like 'Marxist,' 'Nazi,'extremist', and 'foreigner' have been used to smuggle racism and xenophobia into the public conversation without political consequence."
Marc Lamont Hill, Columbia University professor and FOX News contributor

The Fury

2011-02-04T09:28:00.000-06:00

"The mob doesn't think. It has no mind of its own."
Joe Wilson (Spencer Tracy's character in "The Fury")

Prechter On The Rebellion

2011-02-03T01:00:00.002-06:00

"When the bottom is at hand or already in place, the rage will be greater and more widespreead, and there will be no question what the rebellion is about."
Robert Prechter - Elliott Wave Financial Forecast - April 2009

Relaxed On "Economy"

2011-02-02T01:00:00.000-06:00

I've made a few posts over the last few years highlighting Google's cool "Trends" technology. They provide the ability to chart the volume of searches and news items relating to a search word or phrase. The chart provides a great insight into what is on the minds of the "masses". The chart below on the word "economy" presents a few interesting conclusions. First, it appears that we've greatly relaxed with regards to the economy. The searches are must lower than they have been over the past few years. The second insight is that no matter what the economy is, we care less about it during the summer. Lulls consistently show up during the summer months. The third observation is that in most years, the economy is on our minds more in the early part of the year than the end. A final observation is on the lower half of the chart where the news reference volume appears. Note that at the beginning of 2008, there was a significant increase in news stories that ultimately preceeded the great contraction in the fall of that same year.

So, does our relaxed attitude bode anything about the future??

Google Trends Search on "economy"

The Next Internet Blockage

2011-02-01T12:18:00.000-06:00

It appears that Syria is the next to turn off the Internet. A new ploy for "crowd control".

"Just like Egypt, Syria too is said to have made some similar moves in an attempt to stop the rebellious voices coming up. Syria too has reportedly blocked the internet on the same day as on Egypt."

Source: Topnews.com

Anger & Hope

2011-01-31T20:00:00.004-06:00

"It all began in one small Tunisia town with one despondent man, frustrated by lack of employment who set himself on fire and in turn set the whole Arab world ablaze with anger and hope. As the dominos fall throughout the Arab and northern African world, many of us wonder what is waiting on the other side. Will the people in these countries get the freedom and hope they desire?"
Source: Africana Online

An updated N. African protest map. The "nodes on the network" continue to connect. It might be a good time for a re-read of Gladwell's "Tipping Point"!

Protest Map - N. Africa / Middle East

I've used my analogy of The Onion probably too much, but my "Argentina-Onion" post still ranks as my highest visited ever. The N. African onion layers are peeling back quickly. What's interesting, is that right across the "Mediterranean pond" there are countries such as Spain, Italy, and Portugal that are in much more financial trouble, but the power of the EU keeps them afloat. When the outer layers of the EU onion peel back further, it will be interesting to watch. Tunisia, Algeria, and Jordan haven't really attracted major news coverage, but Egypt sure has. Why, because Egypt is a more important peace in the "chess game". A U.S. ally, but a country with a long history of major conflict in the region, especially with our good friends in Israel. Stay tuned.

China's Approach

2011-01-31T13:00:00.003-06:00

I've made a few posts lately regarding the use of technology for the purposes of organizing protests across the Northern African countries. Facebook, Twitter, and Blogging appears to be the method for communicating and organizing amongst these angry youth. I thought this was interesting to see how the Chinese are proactively preparing for potential uprising.

"Even China, worried about its citizens being inspired by the uprisings, disabled searches for the word "Egypt" on some internet services, underscoring Beijing's continued concern over the Internet and its potential to access anti-government information and organize opposition to China's ruling Communist Party."
Source: LA Times

Terrorist Technology

2011-01-31T01:00:00.001-06:00

This one has to make one chuckle.

"A "Black Widow" suicide bomber planned a terrorist attack in central Moscow on New Year's Eve but was killed when an unexpected text message set off her bomb too early, according to Russian security sources. The unnamed woman, who is thought to be part of the same group that struck Moscow's Domodedovo airport on Monday, intended to detonate a suicide belt near Red Square on New Year's Eve in an attack that could have killed hundreds. Security sources believe a message from her mobile phone operator wishing her a happy new year received just hours before the planned attack triggered her suicide belt, killing her at a safe house."
Source: Leader Post

Sudan's Secessation

2011-01-30T22:34:00.000-06:00

I spoke with my "One World Order" buddy last week. He's still convinced that the "powers that be" behind the scenes are moving us to a single currency across the globe. I still argue that in late 1999 we entered a contraction cycle where cooperation declines and treaties dissolve. I've stated many times in the past that I believe that the European Union will be the key one to watch. Also stated before, it will happen on different levels. Countries will pull back and we'll likely see it on the state level in the United States. When the boat starts to take on water, we'll see who gets thrown overboard.

The most recent example of separation is occuring in Sudan.
"While the world media zealously focus their gaze on Egypt’s political upheaval, there is another storm brewing just south of the border in Sudan. We might witness, as early as next month, the genesis of a new nation. After years of civil unrest and conflicts, the people of southern Sudan are knocking on the door of independence. It is time we welcomed the birth of a new nation, albeit with a pinch of salt. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who came to power by staging a military coup in 1989, leads a government of national unity that includes leaders from southern Sudan. A national unity "which has limited autonomy and which has been promised the option of full independence in a referendum in 2011,” according to the BBC. The casting of votes for this referendum is finished and 99 percent of southern Sudanese have opted for independence from the north. According to the BBC, Sudan is the largest and most geographically diverse nation on the African continent. After the formal disassociation from the joint British-Egyptian rule in 1956, Sudan has gone through several decades of civil wars, which have resulted in 1.5 million deaths. This civil unrest between northern and southern Sudan is Africa’s longest-running civil war. The loss of human lives on this scale deserves a justifiable end."
Source: The Daily Evergreen

The Power of The Sheeple

2011-01-29T13:00:00.003-06:00

My bubby, J, shared this one with me. Note the trucks moving in reverse. The power of the people.

This scene brings back memories.

Mega Tipping Point

2011-01-29T01:00:00.012-06:00

Will this be mega-millionare minister/life coach Joel Osteen's tipping point to the back nine?

"Evangelist Joel Osteen, who rarely uses the condemnatory word "sin," rolls it out for homosexuality in his CNN interview with Piers Morgan that aired this week."

Source: USA Today

"Religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though."

Random Roving, January 1, 2010

"Ted Haggard kicked off the trend and Robert Schuller was the next major pillar to fall. When will Joel Osteen's basketball palace collapse?"

Random Roving, January 1, 2011

"Haggard told the GQ reporter that if he were 21, he might call himself a bisexual. But at age 54, he's not going to do that. Especially after his wife published a book called "Why I Stayed," and after he's now turned into an insurance salesman and founded his new St. James Church. Haggard says he's set boundaries for himself and staying heterosexual and monogamous with his wife Gayle."

Source: KDVR Fox News

Dilbert Investing Tips

2011-01-29T01:00:00.002-06:00

This from Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert. It's a great chuckle. His theory is buy stock in companies that you hate.

"If you buy stock in a despicable company, it means some of the previous owners of that company sold it to you. If the stock then rises more than the market average, you successfully screwed the previous owners of the hated company. That's exactly like justice, only better because you made a profit. Then you can sell your stocks for a gain and donate all of your earnings to good causes, such as education for your own kids. Having absorbed all of the wisdom I have presented here so far, you are naturally wondering if I have any additional investment tips. Yes, and I will put my tips in the form of a true story. Recently I bought something called an iPhone. It drops calls so often that I no longer use it for audio conversations. It's too frustrating. And unlike my old BlackBerry days, I don't send e-mail on the iPhone because the on-screen keyboard is, as far as I can tell, an elaborate practical joke. I am, however, willing to respond to incoming text messages a long as they are in the form of yes-no questions and my answer are in the affirmative. In those cases I can simply type "k," the shorthand for OK, and I have trained my friends and family to accept L, J, O, or comma as meaning the same thing. The other day I was in the Apple Store, asking how to repair a defective Apple laptop, and decided, irrationally, that I needed to have Apple's new iPad. The smiling Apple employee said she would be willing to put me on a list so I could wait an indefinite amount of time to maybe someday have one. I instinctively put my wallet on my nose and started barking like a seal, thinking it might reduce the wait time, but they're so used to seeing that maneuver that it didn't help. My point is that I hate Apple. I hate that I irrationally crave their products, I hate their emotional control over my entire family, I hate the time I waste trying to make iTunes work, I hate how they manipulate my desires, I hate their closed systems, I hate Steve Jobs's black turtlenecks, and I hate that they call their store employees Geniuses which, as far as I can tell, is actually true. My point is that I wish I had bought stock in Apple five years ago when I first started hating them. But I hate them more every day, which is a positive sign for investing, so I'll probably buy some shares. Again, I remind you to ignore me."
The entire article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575285000265955016.html

Handcuffing The Kids

2011-01-28T01:00:00.000-06:00

"Currently, your child's share of the national debt is around $45,000. Come 2015, provided current trends continue, it'll be bumping up against $70,000. China will own an unnervingly large portion of that debt. If policy makers in the US are so concerned about China's human rights record and its monetary meddling, how can they possibly justify shackling their children with debt handcuffs that are, so to speak, 'Made in China'?"
Source: Joel Bowma, The Daily Reckoning

P.S. See "Passing Along The Cancer"

The Mammalian Herd

2011-01-27T13:00:00.000-06:00

"Algerian opposition supporters clashed with police during a banned protest in the capital, Algiers, on Saturday."
Source: CBS

"Thousands of Yemenis are demonstrating in the capital Sanaa, calling on Ali Abdullah Saleh, president for more than 30 years, to step down."
Source: BBC

"Thousands of Egyptians have vented their rage against President Hosni Mubarak's autocratic government for two straight days of protests that defied a ban on public gatherings."
Source: The Jerusalem Post

"Inspired by Tunisia and Egypt, Yemenis join in anti-government protests."
Source: The Washington Post

Can one really argue that we're not just one big herd of mammals?

Protest Map - N. Africa/Middle East

You're On Your Own - Part II

2011-01-27T01:00:00.001-06:00

"There are no end of commentaries on the recent murders in Arizona, resulting in the usual debates. Pundits argue over whether there should be stricter gun laws, whether talk radio, the movies, or “extremism” contributed to the tragedy, and, most obtusely, what the government should do to prevent a similar incident from occurring again. What is lost is the fact that this tragedy provides yet more proof of something that has been demonstrated to Americans repeatedly over the past decade. The government cannot protect you from the harsh realities of life. Most people are good people, most of the time. Under normal circumstances, most people would rather cooperate with their fellow human beings in order to achieve their goals rather than steal from them or kill them. However, some people, at least some of the time, do not “live and let live.” During every moment that we are alive, someone somewhere is committing a crime. Someone is experiencing hardship, whether due to their own bad judgment, laziness, or just plain bad luck. Worst of all, someone is planning to commit an act of violence. These truths are confirmed by all of human history. What is unique about the time that we live in now is the extent to which people believe that the government can shield them from these challenges. Never has a society had such high expectations of their government to ensure their security - both personal and economic security. The early 21st century is truly a high-water mark in terms of belief in government to eliminate all risk from the game of life. Over and over, we are offered proof of how foolish this misplaced faith is."
Source: Tom Mullen (The Daily Paul)
Reading this article made me think of Hurricane Katrina and the videos of the police looting the stores with the hoodlums.

25 Years & A Billion Asians

2011-01-26T01:00:00.004-06:00

"The United States and the enormous buying power of U.S. consumers will not be enough to drive earnings growth for big U.S. businesses in the decades ahead. The American consumer will always be important. But for the next 25 years, it's probably not going to be the engine of global growth. It's going to be the billion people joining the middle class in Asia, it's going to be what the resource-rich countries do with their newfound wealth."

Jeffrey Immelt, CEO, GE; Newly appointed economic adviser to the President

Copycat Rebellion?

2011-01-25T16:54:00.001-06:00

It appears that the Egyptian youth liked what they saw for the outcome in Tunisia.

"Egyptian police clashed with anti-government demonstrators as thousands took to the streets demanding an end to President Hosni Mubarak's decades-old rule. Officials say three people have died in the unrest. Two protesters were killed during a demonstration in Suez while a police officer in Cairo died from his injuries. In Cairo, police fired tear gas and used water cannons Tuesday on rock-throwing demonstrators. At one point, demonstrators climbed on top of an armored police vehicle. Another protest erupted in Alexandria, where demonstrators shouted anti-Mubarak slogans. The protests - reported by foreign media to be Egypt's largest in years - began peacefully. Egyptians have been calling for political and economic reforms in protests inspired by demonstrations in Tunisia that led to the ouster of that country's president this month. The rallies are taking place despite government warnings that demonstrators could be arrested. The rallies were promoted online by groups that say they speak for young Egyptians frustrated with the kind of poverty and oppression that triggered Tunisia's unrest."
Source: Voice of America

The War On Cops

2011-01-25T13:00:00.002-06:00

"A spate of shooting attacks on law enforcement officers has authorities concerned about a war on cops. In just 24 hours, at least 11 officers were shot. The shootings included Sunday attacks at traffic stops in Indiana and Oregon, a Detroit police station shooting that wounded four officers, and a shootout at a Port Orchard, Wash., Wal-Mart that injured two deputies. On Monday morning, two officers were shot dead and a U.S. Marshal was wounded by a gunman in St. Petersburg, Fla. On Thursday, two Miami-Dade, Fla., detectives were killed by a murder suspect they were trying to arrest. 'It's not a fluke,' said Richard Roberts, spokesman for the International Union of Police Associations. 'There's a perception among officers in the field that there’s a war on cops going on.' With the Florida deaths, the nation is on track in 2011 to match the 162 police officers killed in the line of duty in 2010. The 2010 toll ended a two-year drop in fatalities and spiked 43 percent over the 117 killed in 2009"
Source: MSNBC

From my most popular post of all time:
"When the bottom is at hand or already in place, the rage will be greater and more widespreead, and there will be no question what the rebellion is about."

Robert Prechter - Elliott Wave Financial Forecast - April 2009

A Golden Dip

2011-01-25T08:00:00.000-06:00

I bought some more GLD (Gold ETF) at 129 in the after-market last night. We'll see if this was a base.

GLD - Gold ETF

You're On Your Own

2011-01-25T01:00:00.000-06:00

"In a press conference, Reid said that Nevada governor Brian Sandoval will have to solve Nevada's massive budget crisis himself. The federal government will NOT come to the rescue. In his own words, Reid said, '… solutions for state government will have to come from state government.'"
Source: Weiss Research

"Will the U.S. fragment and all will say 'California, that's your problem!'".

Random Roving, January 1, 2010