Vladimir and Hugo

Russia continues to make strategic moves in the energy sector. Partnering with Chavez should be of concern to the U.S.

Russia, Venezuela to form 'strategic' oil alliance
Source: Oil & Gas Journal

LOS ANGELES, Nov. 24
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez plans to enter into a strategic alliance with Russia aimed at developing his country's oil industry, according to a senior government minister. "It will be a strategic alliance between Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) and an oil consortium of all the Russian firms, state and private, a large industrial conglomerate not just for production, but also for the entire matter of refining and industrialization," said Venezuela Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez.

A strategic cooperation agreement will be signed on Nov. 26 during Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to Caracas, Ramirez said, noting that Moscow also is pursuing a policy "of greater cooperation" with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Earlier this month, Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Sergei Bogdanchikov said five of Russia's largest oil and gas firms each have taken a 20% stake in the national consortium formed to develop heavy oil fields in Venezuela's Orinoco River basin.

The consortium was registered on Oct. 8, Bogdanchikov said. In addition to Rosneft, the Russian group is comprised of Gazprom, Lukoil, TNK-BP, and Surgutneftegaz. PDVSA will have the controlling stake in the larger consortium announced by Ramirez, and the companies will complete formalities by next spring.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin explained the rationale for the consortium with Venezuela. "The consortium derives from practical considerations: crude produced at certain Venezuelan blocs is heavy, and it is necessary to build refineries capable of making commercial oil," Sechin said. "Such refineries are rather expensive ($6-6.5 billion), and that is too much for one company."

The Gurus on Bubblevision

This is a must watch! It really shows the hype delivered by the media. Note how Peter Schiff is abused by the other guests for his contrarian and unique opinion. The most fascinating is everyone's comments on the financial sector in 2007.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Advice: Turn off the tv and do your own research.

Iran Gets It

Source: Associated Press
Iran converts some reserves to gold
Published: November 15, 2008

TEHRAN, Iran: Iranian newspapers are quoting Mojtaba Hashemi Samareh, a top advisor to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as saying the country has converted its financial reserves into gold. The papers did not specify how much of Iran's estimated $120 billion in reserves would actually be converted into gold.

The daily Jahan-e-Eghtesad, or Economy World, quoted Samareh on Saturday as saying the decision to buy gold was carried out on Ahmadinejad's order. The decision comes after a dramatic fall in oil prices. About 80 percent of Iran's foreign revenue comes from oil exports.

Happy Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving is the one day of the year that we officially "give thanks". Obviously, we should do this on a daily basis, but the hectic pace of our lives sometimes takes precident. With the $7 billion Halloween holiday preceding it and the $474 billion Christmas holiday following it, Thanksgiving has somehow been lost in the shuffle. Christmas items now appear in the mall directly after Halloween. What happened to Thanksgiving? It's now reduced to a one hour feast.

Take some time over the holiday to give thanks and enjoy the great family time. Make sure to take a good nap after the power-meal. After I wake up from mine, the Christmas decorations magically appear!

The Media's Desire For An Uptrend

Take 5 minutes to watch this interview. I watched it live last week.
Forward to 1:50 on the video to listen to Peter Schiff. His perspective is intriguing, but more interesting to me is the mindsight and behavior of the panel at FastMoney. Note the facial expressions on the show's panel. They just don't want to hear anything that says stocks are going to decline. It shows how we've all been trained to says stocks, stocks, stocks. The media and these financial shows always want a rising market. Watch Cramer on Mad Money for one night. It's not entertainment when the market is cratering.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=935047784&play=1

A Perspective On Financial Planners From iTulip.com

From Eric Janszen at iTulip.com
11-20-08

"As regular readers know, my background is in technology and finance, with experience as CEO of high technology companies and in venture capital management. It will not surprise readers to hear that many of my friends have similar backgrounds. You may wonder what they have made of my less than optimistic outlook on the US and global economy over the past several years. They had the option of hearing my opinions or the professional advice of an army of certified and well meaning financial planners and money managers, the vast majority of whom are trained to sell Wall Street’s main financial product: stocks. Armed with 'efficient market hypothesis' that claims that markets are all knowing and asset prices reflect all knowable information and charts and graphs that “prove” that buy-and-hold is the way to make money in the stock market, they carefully develop for their clients, my friends, portfolios heavy in stock assorted funds and indexes, various flavors of bonds, and perhaps a few commodity ETFs for the adventuresome. The mantra, delivered with the consistency of religious belief, is this: you cannot time the markets. Entrepreneurs are by nature optimistic, and busy, so they tend to go along with the traditional and rational sounding presentation of the official source for such opinion, a certified financial planner or money manager. Over the years, most of my friends have regarded my warnings about Wall Street and the stock market with skepticism, even amusement. Over the past few months, however, I have received calls and emails from friends I have not heard from in years. The tone is anything but humorous. The typical note goes like this: “I remember what you told me. I wanted to sell last year but my financial planner told me not to, that I can’t time the market. What should I do now?” Reminding my friends always that I am not a certified financial planner and cannot provide personal investment advice, I proceed to give my views on the markets and economy."

"That forecast back in 2001 was complicated by the housing bubble, the most idiotic and irresponsible act of government economic manipulation in world history and completely beyond me to predict. Not even in my darkest dreams did I think our Federal Reserve and banking regulators could be so stupid: bursting real estate bubbles bring down banking systems and economies. They did in the US in the 1870s and 1930s, in Japan since the 1990s, and many other nations as well. The US 2002 to 2006 housing bubble extended the tax cut, rate cut, dollar devaluation reflation boom by two of years longer than the 1930s version sans housing bubble. As you can see, that extension made the collapse we are seeing today considerably more severe. Now we have a post bubble reflation boom crashing around the fake boom created by the technology stock bubble- two crashes nested one within the other– thus the terrific cascading financial and economic collapse we see today. We wrote dozens of occasionally over-the-top, but always factual and data driven, warnings on iTulip.com since March 2006 to try to scare readers out of the stock market. As it turns out, we were able to determine and notify subscribers on Dec. 27, 2007 when the DJIA was trading at 13,365 that, if they were for some crazy reason still in the market, that was it: the last chance to get out. That forecast was informed primarily by two pieces of information. One, our research told us that US markets were likely to begin in 2008 to experience a bear market that more or less tracked the Nikkei during the first year of the Japanese debt deflation in 1990, off 40%."

"Yes, we know. “No one has a crystal ball” and “no one can foresee the future of the markets.” Is that what your financial planner told you? We hear that all of the time that no one can forecast the markets, certainly not to this degree of accuracy. But this forecast was uncomplicated if you understood the simple underlying dynamic: US households and businesses, and the government itself, had since 1980 built up too much debt. The rate of increase in debt was unsustainable.The credit bubble began in 1980 after the Fed raised short term interest rates to 19%. The 1975 to 1980 inflation that preceded that drastic action deflated all the debt in the economy, leaving US households and businesses with a clean slate. The “fat spread” between high but falling wholesale borrowing rates paid by banks and more gradual declines in rates paid by retail borrowers made lending very profitable and vastly expanded lending and, with it, increased debt. Once the fat spread effect ran out in the early 1990s, bank reserves rules were changed to extend the credit boom. Once those benefits ran out in the early 2000s, lower lending standards, low interest rates, and financially engineered debt products together enabled by newly deregulated debt markets, extended the credit boom for one final spurt of growth. At its height, the US credit machine was producing five dollars of new debt for every dollar of GDP growth, up from a ratio of one to one in the 1960s. The entire 27-year old edifice of debt came crashing down starting with the crash of the securitized debt market in Q1 2007. It was game over and 2008 was the first year of the American debt deflation. All credit bubbles end with a sudden withdrawal of purchasing power from the markets and economy that have become dependent on the massive flows of fresh credit. Debt deflations go on and on until the debt is deflated, one way or another, either by monetary deflation and debt defaults as in the 1930s or by monetary inflation as occurred between 1975 and 1980 in the US. The Japanese have since 1990 deflated debt the slow, hard way, siphoning off cash flow from households and businesses for nearly two decades to pay it all down, and in the process transferring mountains of private debt to the federal government through public spending programs. Our government is hoping to do that, too, except unlike Japan in 1990 our government is deeply in debt to foreign private and official lenders already. If somehow we manage to pay our debt down the hard way as Japan has over nearly two decades, what was Japan’s reward for toughing it out? The Nikkei is today at 8,273 after reaching 39,000 at the end of 1989, off 80% in nominal terms in 19 years. The first relevant fact in our Dec. 27, 2007 Debt Deflation Bear Market forecast was that the US is entering a debt deflation and that debt deflation is a bad investment environment for a buy-and-hold strategy. Two, contacts on Wall Street conveyed in many ways, some subtle and others not, that a last ditch effort was on to run up the market going into the end of the fiscal year in 2007 to collect the last bonuses that the current generation of bankers expected to see before Wall Street went down for the count in 2008. So much for efficient markets. Quite a few are unemployed now. Some of the analysts I know from Lehman landed at Barclays, a few bearish and therefore well-positioned hedge fund managers did well shorting stocks and are still active, and a few old contacts at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are still there, but I can’t imagine the industry will ever be the same. Huge imbalances in the US and global economy developed for over 30 years. Now they are rebalancing, as many non-mainstream economists have warned was certain to happen sooner or later, warnings which were argued as alarmist by mainstream economists. The global monetary system cobbled together in the 1970s after the US unilaterally abandoned Bretton Woods, and the unintended consequences of that -- the inflated purchasing power of the US dollar, buildup of gross external debt to 95% of GDP, and America's gigantic current account deficit -- started to come apart in 2007 following the crash of the securitized debt market, that followed the collapse of the housing bubble. It had to come apart anyway; the securitized bond market happened to be the proximate cause."

"Why did the credit markets crash? The credit market is best understood as a transactions network. One node or set of nodes crashes, and in the process transmit the information that caused the crash to other nodes. Entire sections of the network crash and become inoperative while others continue to function, which explains why credit continues to flow almost normally in some credit markets that function as more or less autonomous sub-networks. However, eventually the entire network may fail, with only a few isolated sub-networks functioning, and large sections of the US economy will devolve into operating on a cash-only transaction basis as has occurred in other instances of credit market breakdown in other places in the world."

"The stock market buy-and-hold era ended in 1998. In a world where the so-called business cycle is dominated by bubbles, inflation, crashes, deflation, recession, and reflations and all manner of government interference, stock market timing, and sector analysis, will continue to be the key to making money. In fact, across the broad stroke of American history, there is never a period when markets are not either largely or entirely influenced by the actions of government. For hundreds of years the US has either been at war, recovering from war, growing asset bubbles, crashing asset bubbles, recovering from asset bubbles, or mucking around with the monetary system–entering the gold standard, leaving the gold standard, entering into a new global monetary regime, leaving that regime– endlessly. How can markets possibly be efficient if they are perpetually driven by large-scale events produced by government policies? The idea is profoundly naive. On a final note, given what were to me and many others glaringly obvious risks with predictable outcomes for the stock market going back to 1998 when I got out of stocks and started iTulip.com, and the horrific advice that many certified financial planners have given their clients over the years, I wonder if the licensing of financial planners has operated for the last decade as a scheme to portray a unified Wall Street financial products sales force as an independent, disinterested, and expert -- and therefore unquestioned -- collection of investment professionals with only their clients’ best interests at heart. Except for the few renegade licensed financial planners who escape the indoctrination with an ounce of common sense, most doggedly stick to absurd investment theories like “efficient markets” that have no relevance in the real world, follow arbitrary portfolio balancing rules that just happen to favor a large stock market position no matter that a large cash position is warranted by clearly observable risks, and express antagonism toward asset classes such as precious metals that, unfortunately, have a legitimate place in the portfolio of any citizen of a government that has a printing press and knows how to use it, that is, all of them. The financial mayhem the majority of financially planners have unleashed upon the portfolios of millions of Americans over the past year informs my view that the entire financial planning licensing system should be abandoned and replaced with a simple referral system that qualifies financial planners entirely on performance based metrics, not abstract theory that favors one asset class over another. No one expects a perfect crystal ball, but going to cash to dodge a 40% correction in 2007 was not rocket science. All you had to do was look at all the debt: there was and is too much of it, and there is no way that the unwinding of all that debt can possibly be good for stocks. That’s just common sense."

"You can interpret this either as the bond market smelling a repeat of 1930s deflation or late 1970s inflation times two or three. Hoover or FDR? Pick your poison. I expect Hoover then FDR, disinflation then inflation ala late 1970s but more extreme, to deflate the debt. Will these market and economic anomalies diminish, the markets recover, and the economy return to normal within the timescale of the 50 or 60 year old buy-and-hold stock investor? Perhaps, but more likely a transformation of the entire structure of the global markets and economy is starting that will take decades to resolve. In my view, these historic events will next year be complicated by political responses to high unemployment globally, and it is reasonable to expect that some of these responses will not be entirely constructive."

"Last year we warned you of the start of the Debt Deflation Bear Market. It will continue in 2009 but with rallies driven by cycles of fiscal stimulus optimism and disappointment, fear of deflation and fear of inflation. For the next several years, economies and therefore markets will be largely driven by ebbs and flows of sentiment driven by government spending or expectations of government spending, as well as fears of unintended or intended consequences–inflation. Political confusion expressed as policy paralysis over the cause and cure for the root of the problem–the credit bubble debt overhang–will dominate the markets this coming year. "

The entire post is available at:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=61898#post61898

Jack Sparrow and The Oil Tanker

The character, Captain Jack Sparrow, brought back the image of the pirate to the silver screen. While a little bizarre and feminine, he still, along with his dark crew, reminded us of the old days when the thieves of the sea took whatever they wanted from the less protected.

It's interesting to read recent news stories of pirates seizing massive tankers off the eastern coast of Africa.

"Since January, at least 91 vessels have been attacked in the Gulf of Aden, an area of 1 million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) flanked by Yemen and Somalia and leading to the Suez Canal. Since then, both Indian and British naval ships have engaged pirates in combat and French commandos freed two nationals held by hijackers." Source: Bloomberg

The pirates are feeling the effects of deflation. Yesterday, they reduced their ransom by 40%!

During the contraction phase of the cycle, the "have nots" will seek what they feel entitled to from the "haves". This will likely occur on all scales. As the mass social mood continues to shift down, what protective measures will be taken by governments and individuals to protect themselves?

All Pro Dad

I was first exposed to the ALL PRO DAD organization a few years ago at the Colts preseason camp. Tony Dungy has been a great supporter of the organization. It focuses on the role of the father in the family.

They send weekly reminders on how to be a great dad. Sign up.
We can all use a reminder and utilize some new ideas.
http://allprodad.com/pod/signup.php

http://allprodad.com/

The Four Horsemen

I've added a new "virtual mentor" to my list, Peter Schiff. After reading his book, Crash Proof, reviewing his website, and watching several of his interviews, I'm convinced that this guy is on the mark. I just ordered his latest book. Here's an update on my four horsemen and their perspectives. The challenging part is that they all have different perspectives.

1) Jim Puplava: the Fed along with the new administration will print even more money in the years to come. This will lead to massive hyperinflation. He likes stocks next year for this reason, but believes that energy and commodities will rule in the future hyperinflated world.
www.financialsense.com

2) Warren Buffet: Always buy value and don't worry about the rest. He's made some great deals lately and he's encouraging everyone to stay in stocks.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/

3) Robert Prechter: He's dancing in the street due to the fact that his deflationary prediction appears to be coming true. With everything declining, it appears very deflationary. He believes that the Dow is heading to 700.
www.elliottwave.com

4) Peter Schiff: He's extremely negative on the future of the U.S. dollar. He believes that the Chinese will send those dollars home soon. He likes high yielding stocks on foreign exchanges in country's with strong currencies. He suggests that these stocks be acquired in the foreign currency. When the dollar tanks, bring those dollars home and buy up everything.
www.europac.net

Holy Mackerel!!

Yesterday illustrated a sprint to U.S. treasuries.
A timely scene from my favorite movie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJJN9qwhkkE

The Feds are ole man Potter!

30 reasons for Great Depression #2 by 2011

My favorite cyclist shared this one with me. Remember, it's a collaborative effort!

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:19 p.m. EST Nov. 17, 2008
30 'leading edge' indicators of the coming Great Depression 2

Every day there is more breaking news, proof Wall Street's greed is already back to "business as usual" and in denial, grabbing more and more from the new "Bailouts-R-Us" bonanza of free taxpayer cash and credits, like two-year-olds in a toy store at Christmas -- anything to boost earnings, profits and stock prices, and keep those bonuses and salaries flowing, anything to blow a new bubble.

Scan these 30 "leading indicators." Each problem has one or more possible solutions, but lacks unified political support. Time's running out. We're already at the edge. Add up the trillions in debt: Any collective solution will only compound our problems, because the cumulative debt will overwhelm us, make matters worse:

1. America's credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
   
2. Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new "shadow banking system"
3. Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson's Wall Street Trojan Horse
4. King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
5. Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
6. AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
7. American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
8. Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
9. State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
10. State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
11. Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
12. Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
13. Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
14. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
15. Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
16. Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
17. Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
18. Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
19. Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
20. Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
21. Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930's photos of soup lines
22. Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
23. China's sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
24. Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
25. The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
26. Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
27. New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
28. Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
29. The "antitaxes" message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises

Will the next meltdown, the third of the 21st Century, trigger a second Great Depression? Or will the 2007-08 crisis simply morph into a painful extension of today's mess to 2011 and beyond, with no new bull market, no economic recovery as our new president hopes?

Perhaps some of the first 29 problems may be solved separately, but collectively, after building on a failed ideology, they spell disaster. So listen closely to "leading indicator" No. 30:
At a recent Reuters Global Finance Summit former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead was interviewed. He was also Ronald Reagan's Deputy Secretary of State and a former chairman of the N.Y. Fed. He says America's problems will take years and will burn trillions.
He sees "nothing but large increases in the deficit ... I think it would be worse than the depression. ... Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody's and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds." It'll get worse because "the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs, all very costly and all done by the government."

For the entire article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Well-Great-Depression-2-2011/story.aspx?guid=%7BB28B49B5%2DEFD1%2D4941%2DB57E%2DA2BA1545BA09%7D

The Patriot and The Restoration of Order

"Also, it is important not to confuse a desire not to go down with a sinking ship with patriotism. Such "patriots" who stand on the deck saluting the flag as the ship sinks will likely be of little assistance to other survivors left treading water. Only by attempting to position ourselves safely aboard sea-worthy lifeboats now will we be able to participate in any future rescue efforts. Protecting our wealth today should allow us to repatriate it tomorrow, thus enabling us to help rebuild a viable American economy."

"What nearly all politicians on both sides of the aisle fail to understand is that the current contraction and credit crunch is necessary to restore order to an economy that is horribly out of balance. Years of misguided fiscal and monetary policy and market-distorting regulations have resulted in reckless borrowing and spending on Main Street, pervasive gambling on Wall Street, and rampant fraud and corruption at every intersection. America’s borrow and spend economy, and the bloated service sector that evolved around it, must be allowed to topple, so that a more sustainable economy grounded in savings and production can rise in its place. Any government efforts to delay the adjustment and spare us the pain will backfire, turning this recession into an inflationary depression. Of broader concern however is the sharp turn in ideology, and what it means for the future of our nation. If this is a permanent shift, then America will lose any resemblance to the economic titan it was in the 20th Century. Our standard of living will decline sharply, our economy will be ravaged by inflation, tens of millions will be unemployed, more individual liberties will be surrendered, and rugged individualism will be supplanted by the nanny state. In short, Latin America may extend north to the Canadian border."

Peter Schiff, President Euro Pacific Capital, Author "Crash Proof" 11/17/08

His strategy: http://www.europac.net/videomessage.asp

His outlook:

U.S. Stocks

We believe that in general U.S. equities remain substantially over-valued, and that despite nominal new highs for some popular stock market averages, they remain in long-term secular bear markets when adjusted for inflation. As such we are bearish on the broad U.S. stock market, and only find value in certain carefully selected U.S. equities, generally those companies that are export oriented and/or commodities based, including mining and oil and gas.

U.S. Bonds

We believe that the U.S. bond market is in the process of forming a significant top, in what has been a major long-term bull market. Once completed, we expect bond prices to collapse. Given the highly unfavorable long-term risk reward situation, we recommend that investors maintain minimum exposure to any long-term debt instruments, be they treasury, municipal, or corporate. Those holding U.S. dollar denominated debt instruments should restrict ownership to only the highest quality, short-term maturities. Even those high income investors seeking tax-favored yields are cautioned that avoiding the inflation tax, which stealthily confiscates principal, is more important than avoiding taxes on mere income.

U.S. Residential Real Estate

If it looks like a bubble, walks like a bubble, and quacks like a bubble, it's a bubble. The combination of artificially low interest rates, foreign central bank intervention, an irresponsible Fed, excessive credit availability, the proliferation of low or no-down payment, adjustable-rate, interest-only, and negative-amortization mortgages, a can't-lose attitude among speculators, validated by ever rising "comps," the complete abandonment of lending standards, wide-spread corruption in the appraisal industry, rampant fraud among sub-prime lenders, and the moral hazards associated with loan originators re-selling loans to buyers of securitized products who perceive minimal risk and an implied government guarantee, has produced the "mother of all bubbles." When it finally bursts, it's not just real estate speculators and home owners who will suffer, but the entire U.S. economy, its banking and financial systems, and anyone with U.S. dollar denominated savings.

The U.S. Dollar

We believe the U.S. dollar is in a major long-term bear market, and as such recommend keeping exposure to the dollar at an absolute minimum. All long-term savings and investments should be denominated in select foreign currencies against which we believe the dollar is likely to fare the worst.

Gold

We believe that Gold is in the early stages of a new, secular bull market. Conservative investors are advised to have a portion of their savings allocated to physical bullion, while speculative investors are advised to own shares of carefully selected mining companies, both domestic and international.

Commodities

Like gold, we believe that commodities in general are in the early stages of a new bull market, and that conservative and aggressive investors should seek out appropriate ways to gain exposure to this sector.

Foreign Stocks

We believe that unique opportunities exist in many carefully selected foreign equities, particularly those that have minimal exposure to the United States, and are in no way related to U.S consumers, financial services, or technology. Many foreign markets are counter-cyclical to the U.S., and have recently emerged from long-term bear markets. In many cases valuations are low, yields are high, and prospects for earnings growth are favorable.

Foreign Bonds

Given our bearish outlook for the dollar, bond investors should concentrate their holdings in instruments denominated in select foreign currencies. However, given our global outlook for higher interest rates and rising inflation, shorter maturities are preferable. However, given current U.S. tax law, we believe that those seeking conservative, income generating investments should concentrate on high dividend paying, carefully selected foreign property stocks, utilities, energy trusts, and natural resource based companies.

The U.S. Economy

We believe that the growing imbalances in the U.S. economy, its twin budget and current account deficits, its lack of domestic savings, and the erosion of its industrial base, have now reached a point where a severe recession, culminating in a substantial decline in the over-all American standard of living, is imminent. The Federal Reserve, Congress, and the President, for political expedience, are likely to continue seeking to delay this adjustment, unfortunately in ways which will exacerbate its severity, making the inevitable recession that much worse, and increasing the probability of a hyper-inflationary outcome, which would render the U.S. dollar, and all U.S. dollar denominated financial assets, practically worthless in terms of real purchasing power, potentially creating a situation of extreme financial, political, and social unrest.

The above forecasts are made with much regret, as we realize that they foretell significant hardships for millions of our fellow Americans. However, it is our mission to help spare as many of our countrymen as possible from suffering this fate. In fact, we feel that it is our patriotic duty to help as many Americans as possible to safely protect their wealth though the acquisition of foreign assets. It is only through such actions that at least some Americans will retain ownership of financial wealth which may be repatriated in the aftermath of the collapse.

We remain hopeful that dire economic conditions will at least create a climate in which America can finally return to her constitutional traditions of sound money and limited government, providing a foundation upon which a sounder economy can one day be rebuilt. If out of the ashes of this collapse, the spirits of our founding fathers can rise again, it may one day be possible for America to reclaim her former glory, and once again be that shining city of which Ronald Reagan so eloquently spoke.

In our opinion the U.S. economic ship of state is in danger of sinking. As the problems with her hull are structural, current efforts by government officials and central bankers to plug up the holes will make it difficult to keep her afloat. Though we remain hopeful that she may one day be returned to a sea-worthy condition, there is nothing collectively that we can do to alter her fate, or that of the millions of Americans ignorantly dancing the night away on her decks. However, individually we can take defensive action to protect ourselves and our families by getting off the ship. In our opinion the lifeboat of choice is a carefully selected portfolio of relatively conservative*, high-dividend paying, non-U.S. export dependent, foreign equities.
Such investments provide three potential sources of protection. 1. They pay good dividends, many of which qualify for the lower dividend tax currently in effect. 2. More importantly, as these dividends are paid in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, their value will rise as the dollar falls, as will the principal value of the underlying shares. 3. They provide the potential for true capital gains, as the shares themselves may appreciate in terms of their local currencies.

Source: https://www.europac.net/outlook.asp

Puppy Love

Last Thursday my mother-in-law was rushed to the hospital via ambulance with chess pains. Thankfully cardiac issues were ruled out. She said that the pains began when she was reading my blog so today's post is focusing on a much lighter topic!!

On Saturday our new puppy was born on my son's 15th birthday. Here she is having her first meal a few minutes after birth.

This post should not be confused with the nursing kittens!

God, Faith, and Boudreaux

A good friend sent me a timely email speaking about how important faith in God is during trying times. We often focus on the challenges of the day and sometimes lose sight of the big picture. Despite the balance in our 401k's, everyone I know has their health, happiness, a job, and a great family. So all is good!

When I think of faith and the challenge of knowing when to "listen" and when to "act", I often think of my friend Boudreaux during Hurricane Katrina. Boudreaux lived down on the bayou in south Louisiana. As Katrina was approaching, his neighbors drove by and offered him a ride in their car to head north to higher ground. Boudreaux responded, "I don't need a ride. God will take care of me." The next day the flood waters rose quickly and Boudreaux had to climb to the roof to stay dry. A rescue boat came up to his house to rescue him but Boudreaux declined and said "I don't need a boat. God will take care of me." The water continued to rise and Boudreaux was sitting on the top of his chimney. A coast guard helicopter flew above and lowered a man down to save Boudreaux. Boudreaux told him "I go to church ever Sunday and pray to God every day. I don't need your help. God will save me". The helicopter reluctantly left and hours later Boudreaux drowned as the water rose above his chimney. As he awaited processing in Heaven, an angry Boudreaux asked to immediately speak to God. Moments later God appeared and asked Boudreaux what was so important. Boudreaux said "God, I went to church every Sunday and prayed to you every night. I told everyone that you would save me, but you did not." God looked at him and said "Boudreaux, what do you mean that I didn't try to save you. I sent a car, a boat, and a helicopter!"

One of life's great challenges is attempting to sort the balance of faith and action. When do you sit quietly, listen, and wait, and when do you take action?

Martenson's Update on The Bailout

I've encouraged everyone to watch Chris Martenson's Crash Course at http://www.chrismartenson.com/.

Here's a recent article that he posted on http://www.financialsense.com/ providing details on the progress of the bailout.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2008/1111.html

The Grass Is Always Greener On The Other Teet

My wife and daughter have been fostering cats and kittens from the animal shelter lately and I've had the opportunity to observe these precious little creatures. One of the funniest things to spectate is when the mama lays down and the kittens bombard her in search of a teet full of milk. They look like kamikazi pilots diving over one another in search of their meal. While there are enough teets for each and every kitten, it's hilarious to watch one abort his/her teet and leep over their siblings to fight for one that is already taken. Then the one that gets pushed off has to aggressively seek a new teet. In the end, they all get fed, but during the process, each one at some point decides he has to search for a teet that might be better.

While on the subject of milking the system, I wasn't shocked yesterday when Hank Paulson announced a major shift in his bailout plan. He stated "the facts have changed". Really? What facts and how can the financial system change that fast in four weeks? The reality is, they are perplexed on how to catch the "falling arrow". Now the auto industry is searching for it's teet. How many teets do the Feds have? At some point, mama's going to say, I'm all out of milk! Then what?

I thought that it would be informative to pass along the list of banks that have announced participation in the Treasury program:

FIRST ROUND
Citgroup $25 billion
Wells Fargo $25 billion
JPMorgan Chase $25 billion
Bank of America $15 billion
Merrill Lynch $10 billion
Goldman Sachs $10 billion
Morgan Stanley $10 billion
Bank of New York $3.0 billion
State Street $2.0 billion
TOTAL $125 billion

SECOND ROUND
PNC $7.7 billion
Capital One $3.6 billion
SunTrust $3.5 billion
Regions Financial $3.5 billion
Fifth Third $3.4 billion
Key $2.5 billion
Comerica $2.25 billion
Northern Trust $1.5 billion
Huntington $1.4 billion
First Horizon $866 million
City National $395 million
Valley National $330 million
Washington Federal $230 million
First Niagara $186 million
TOTAL $31.36 billion

Not Weel

Way back when in the college days, I was out on the town one night with my buddies in my hometown of New Orleans. It was late in the evening and we were exiting Pat O'Briens and as we were turning left and approaching Bourbon Street we came upon the famous fast food eatery, Takee Outee. Takee Outee was a tiny little Chinese takeout that was quite questionable in it's cleanliness, but at 2 a.m. the egg rolls were to die for. That evening I was needing a late night snack so I walked up to the counter and ordered one eggroll. The Chinese man behind the counter quickly said "no eggwoll". I said, "one eggroll". He again said "no eggwoll". I said "no I just want one eggroll". He emphatically said "no eggwoll". I pointed in the glass covered area at the last eggroll and said "I just want THAT eggroll!". He reached in the case and lifted the plastic eggroll up in my face and yelled "not weel". Reality quickly set in and I realized that I had been arguing with the man for two minutes trying to purchase a plastic eggroll. I concluded it was time to head to the house!

When I look at our current financial markets and our "super size me" lifestyle, I often think of the Chinese man at Takee Outee and think "not weel". For twenty six years, we've inflated the system with massive amounts of credit. All presidents since Reagan participated in the process. Are our big cars, big houses, big vacations, and big appetites real? The savings rate for the average American is below 0%. Now that eggroll is real. Our debt is real. When we fully grasp the reality of the situation and come to grips with our past credit-driven lifestyle, I wonder what our gameplan and mindset will be. It's time to pass on the eggroll and head to the house. How will we handle that long ride home??

An Educational Conversation With Warren and Charlie

This interview between Charlie Rose and Warren Buffet is very informative and educational. It was conducted on 10/1/08.
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/01/1/an-exclusive-conversation-with-warren-buffett

Politics, Economics, and The Bull Trap

Here's a link to a very informative article that provides a thorough "data supported" explanation of where we are. The market indices and the underlying parameters appear to be in full alignment.

After Shocks from the October Meltdown
by Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Market Trends, SirChartsAlot, Inc. November 7, 2008
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/dorsch/2008/1107.html

While you're on Financial Sense Online, browse around and note the breadth of content on this website. Also checkout Jim Puplava's radio/internet broadcast
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Crash Proof

My friend, Bubbaloo, turned me on to Peter Schiff, the author of the book, Crash Proof.

Checkout the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NvjrfC6i0I

Buy the book:
http://www.amazon.com/Crash-Proof-Economic-Collapse-Sonberg/dp/0470043601/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226069360&sr=8-2

Here's a great contrast of two views:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mwib3qODFOQ

"The reader of this book faces a difficult task, one that will put him in such an extreme minority that he will feel isolated and unsupported. By selling all of your stocks, you will take the maverick road, and you will take it alone. I have no doubt that by the time this bull market is ending, our call for a huge crash and depression will be laughed off the street. Do not lose your perspective when the time comes. It will take great courage to make money during this bull market. However, it will take greater courage to get out near the top, because that's when the world will call you a damn fool for selling."
Robert Prechter, At The Crest of The Tidal Wave, 1995, p. 217

Be Careful What You Wish For

It's only been three days since the election and fireworks are popping on all fronts. The Democrats are euphoric, the Republicans angry, McCain and Palin camps are fighting, and the stock market returned to it's inevitable downward spiral.

I've had the opportunity the last few days to visit with members of both teams. The Democrats are just plain giddy over the "butt spanking" that they successfully delivered. After a close Gore loss and a Kerry defeat, it appears that there was some pent up frustration. My Republican friends are very angry and have declared an end to the world. Some have even defined the moment as biblical prophecy. I had the great pleasure to golf with my favorite registered Republican this week and his four favorite words were: Stalinist, Marxist, Socialist, and U.S.S.A.

It's amazing in only three days to see the "blame game" commence on all fronts. The Democrats are saying "you see I told you that the country wanted change". The McCain camp is firing shots at Sarah Palin. This one shocked me. Palin appeared to give it her best shot. She started the process off dealing with the fact that the whole world knew that her teenage daughter had just become pregnant. She weathered some bad interviews and most of all the brutal depiction on SNL. Great fun unless it's you. My favorite registered Republican told me yesterday that Bush was a great guy for extending an invitation to the Obamas to tour the White House. I say that it would be an honorable guesture for McCain to hold a press conference today and state his appreciation for Palin's effort. Lets all be honest. McCain was a washed up candidate and the Republicans should have been able to pitch a stronger, fresher candidate. To blame your VP partner is weak.

On the flip side, I say to my Democrat friends "be careful what you wish for". The Democrats have complete control over the near future. For that, they will be given complete credit for 100% of what happens. The Republicans are already blaming Obama for the stock market drops the last two days. Thats despite the fact that it's down 34% for the year under the Bush administration. The next four years will be very challenging on all fronts. As I've stated before, the economic cycle is must stronger than a political party or individual politicians. The psychology of the masses will drive the direction. I believe that the Democrats will be navigating the ship through major rogue waves. At the end of that process, the party will be in shambles. At that point, the masses will be disenchanted with both parties. At "the bottom", there will be a third party that finally gains some steam and becomes a viable competitor. That party will probably be somewhere in the middle.

Obama and The Hogs

On January 23, 1971, just four years after they drafted him, the New Orleans Saints traded Billy Kilmer to the Washington Redskins. As a Saints fan and Kilmer fan, I was torn. At age eight, I made the decision to start rooting for the Redskins as my "backup" team just in case the Saints didn't make the playoffs. Well, that turned out to be a great strategy!

In 1987, Doug Williams came off of the bench to replace Jay Schroeder at quarterback for the Redskins. That led to a playoff birth and a victory in Superbowl XXII. At that time, there was a lot of skepticism about black quarterbacks. Many thought that they were not smart enough. Doug Williams proceeded out on the field that day with a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Despite the fact that he underwent a six hour root canal the day prior, he performed off the charts. The Skins scored five touchdowns in the second quarter and finished with a convincing 42-10 rout of the Broncos. Doug Williams delivered and set the record straight.

Football is a sport that includes eleven teammates on the field at one time. One of the great strengths of the Redskins in that era was their coach, Joe Gibbs, and their offensive line appropriately nicknamed "The Hogs". The Hogs protected many Redskin quarterbacks through the years.

Barack Obama, our president elect, is faced with a similar scenario as Doug Williams. He carries a huge burden on his shoulders being the first black president. In January, he will enter the Superbowl as quarterback. His "root canal" will be the financial system and unrest in the Middle East. In the coming weeks, we will see who he selects to be his coach and Hogs. If I were him, I would pick some massive Hogs that can block and give him time to complete some passes. Start off slow in the first quarter, and then try to make some big plays in the second quarter. Doug Williams paved the way for Cunningham, Stewart, McNair, Culpepper, McNabb, Brooks, Vick, and Blake. Barack Obama now has the opportunity and challenge to pave the road to the future for many others.

P.S. After Joe Gibbs left the Redskins, I lost touch with the team and picked the Colts up as my new "backup" team when Jim Mora arrived. The later arrival of my fellow New Orleanian, Peyton Manning, sealed the deal. But remember I predict a Super Bowl victory for the Saints next season!

The Death of Michael Crichton

I was shocked to read this morning of Michael Crichton's passing. I was not aware that he was battling cancer. Here's a nice article and audio from NPR:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96689392

I've read several of his books and his knowledge of science and technology is incredible. After reading "Jurassic Park" years ago, I was disappointed that his stimulating intertwining of science in the book didn't transpire to the silver screen. He presented a good, fair, and diverse perspective on the environment in "State of Fear". The end of the book contained a massive amount of references for further reading. "Next" presented a very scary view of the future of the biotech industry. Talking monkeys, yikes!!

His life story on Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton

We've lost a stimulating, intelligent, and insightful author and entreprenuer at too young of an age.

Congratulations Mr. Obama

It was predicted to be a historic night and that it was. The masses have spoken and they've spoken clearly. Barack Obama captured 52% of the popular vote and a staggering 67% of the electoral vote. As the cycle turns, the house gets cleaned. Most interesting to me is that 56% of women voted against Palin. Over 118 million people voted. That's double an American Idol vote!

It was exciting to witness history being made. Throughout most of the election process, race was not discussed greatly. Last night, it was obvious that many were excited that we finally elected a black person to the office of president. As a country, we should be proud of this moment. I believe that it has spoken volumes to the world.

I believe that Republicans have to admit the following: Obama is a very intelligent man. He ran an incredibly strategic campaign. He is an extremely eloquent speaker. He has inspired the masses. I've not seen rallies quite like the ones I saw last night. He has inspired Generation X. He has attracted people like Colin Powell and Warren Buffet so I expect that he'll build an impressive cabinet.

Mr. McCain gave a gracious speech and laid the groundwork for participation and cooperation.

Seeing live video from Harlem made me think about my late uncle, Father David Kirk, who marched with Dr. Martin Luther King in the 60's and spent 40 years in Harlem fighting for the homeless. He would be very proud today.

Mr. Obama has a challenging job ahead. This morning on CNN, one of the correspondents called it "the worst inbox in the world". Stay tuned, these are interesting times.

Source: CNN

An Election Day Reflection

The day has finally come. Two years and $2.5 billion later, we finally have out opportunity to cast our ballot. It seems that we've been in this process for ever! The experts predict that we will have a record turnout. Based on the timing in the economic cycle, that make a lot of sense. No matter the outcome, today proves to be historic.

Back in June at our annual beach trip, I predicted that Obama would win by 14%. That prediction was unanimously scoffed at and all stated that it will be a "photo finish" like Bush/Gore. My prediction then and now is that Obama will win by a landslide. I don't believe this because I think that he's the dominating candidate or necessarily the best candidate. I believe this because of the timing of the election with the economic cycle. As we entered the new millennium and the beginning of the "contraction" phase of the cycle, Bush took office. His approval ratings have consistently slid down to an all time low. In contractions, the mob becomes angry and fearful. Kings and presidents are thrown out of power during the contractions. The Republican party will suffer greatly during this election due to timing. The imperialistic occupation of Iraq has been cited as the explanation for the down trend in ratings, but ironically the conflict also aligns with the behavior "of the crowd" during the contraction phase.

The Obama landslide victory will reflect the significant shift in mass social mood from "happy and greedy" to "angry and fearful". The anger is focused on the Bush administration, yet the fear appears to be focused on the policies of a potential Obama administration. I believe that the anger will overpower the fear. When we're happy and greedy, we forgive a president for having sex with an intern in our country's White House. When we're happy and greedy, we typically re-elect the incumbent. John McCain is considered the incumbent. George Bush Sr. knows what happens when the tide shifts slightly off kilter. He still hasn't forgiven Greenspan for not printing more money to artificially stimulate the economy prior to his re-election bid. Greenspan made up for it during W's term.

Most concerning to me during this process, and mainly during the past six weeks, is the content of emails that I've received from my Republican friends. The fear mongering has been staggering. The most shocking have been those wrapping the election decision under the veil of Christianity. I believe that Jesus loves both candidates. The Republican party made the conscious decision to "go negative" instead of telling us why McCain was the right choice. During the Republican convention, all I heard were two things: "Vietnam POW" and "maverick".

The interesting question to ask on election day is: Should one vote for what they believe is best for themselves or for their country? For me personally, being a white upper middle class geologist in the petroleum industry, most would agree that I should vote Republican. The Republican Party states that they will keep my taxes low, keep illegal aliens from mowing my lawn, and they want to drill, drill, drill. Sounds like a simple decision. I actually believe that one should vote for what's best for the country as a whole. I firmly believe that one should assess the picture on a global scale. I also believe the "the chain is only as strong as the weakest link". If our "weakest link" gets weaker, it will affect all of us. So who is the best candidate for the country as a whole?

I don’t think it matters who the next president is. I know that 99% of you will disagree with this statement. I believe that he will be doomed by the economic cycle. The cycle is much greater than a president or a political party. The next president will time it horribly like Carter did, but much worse. He will be the fall guy. He will be worn down by the Middle East like LBJ was with Vietnam. Hopefully he won’t receive the fate of JFK. Yes, that sounds pessimistic, but history is very repetitive. Although Obama and Palin don’t have enough experience, especially for dealing with the rogue waves that lie ahead, I believe that both have great potential for a future moment in time. Obama has brought excitement and hope to the masses. I don’t ever recall seeing a 100,000 person rally for a presidential candidate. Palin has brought a freshness to the process and great hopes for future female candidates. McCain and Biden are career professional politicians and that’s not what the country needs. Bush’s term aligned with the “beginning of the end of the great expansion” and McCain can’t shake the Bush connection. I’m still trying to figure out if Obama is a Christian, Muslim, Arab, Kenyan, or terrorist?!?!

This morning I voted for Ron Paul as a "write in". I believe that our two parties are stuck in a state of significant paralysis. The rigidness and extreme perspectives are at a standoff. When this cycle finds a bottom in the coming years, it might be the opportunity for a third party to rise in power and stature. My vote can be easily cast as a wasted vote, but I truly believe that out of all of the candidates and through the entire process, Ron Paul was the only candidate that conveyed an honest and accurate understanding of the situation along with providing real, concrete solutions. He understands that a fiat system will ultimately come to a catastrophic ending. Someone in charge has to have a plan for this. Of course, I hope that I’m wrong. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed, and have been a full participant in the Supersize Me Era.

It's interesting to observe politics on the home front. My 14 year old son wants Obama, 12 year old daughter McCain, and my wife still was rooting for Hillary. How's that for diversity!

Now that the entire process is ending, I present my awards for the candidates:
-Best resume' for the job award: Mitt Romney
-Most bewildering strategy award: Rudy G
-The "What Was That" award: Fred Thompson
-The Bill Clinton award: John Edwards
-The Pitbull With Lipstick Award: I can't stand the Clintons, but I have to give it to Hillary. She's the only person that I've seen turn Bill O'Reilly into a teddy bear.
-The most sincere award: Three candidates conveyed honesty and sincerity to me throughout the process: Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama, and Ron Paul. How's that for a diverse group.
-The best speaker award: Barack Obama
-The Big Winner Award: Sarah Palin; she rocketed on the scene and will be a huge winner in defeat. She's given hope to all of the young ladies that want to seek leadership positions in the future.
-The live off the distant past award: John McCain; I respect the man greatly for his military service and incredible tenacity to survive a terrible situation, but you can't focus a campaign on your military story from 40 years ago.
-The best tag line award: I'm torn between "change" and "maverick"
-The financial guru award: Ron Paul; he has incredible knowledge about the world financial system and the challenges ahead. The media and the process marginalized him and will regret it in hindsight.
-The Most Diverse Candidate Award: Barack Obama; multi-racial, raised in Hawaii by white mother from Kansas and grandparents, Kenyan father, degrees from Columbia and Harvard
-The big big winner: Tina Fey and SNL!

Well, these are interesting times. This will be an interesting day, week, month, year, and decade.
Good luck to your team. Your input is always appreciated!
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