Weiss Research presents six reasons that they believe that a double-dip recession is hitting the U.S.:
-First, the economic rebound since March 2009 was bought with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. There has not been a real, market-generated recovery.
-Second, despite the huge sums of taxpayer money and serial bailouts, the rebound is the weakest on record.
-Third, at least 80 percent of this huge stimulus program has been used up. There isn't much left to keep the economic engines running.
-Fourth, aside from government debt, the wheels of credit creation are still sputtering. And that's a problem, since former recoveries have always been driven by credit growth. Last week's employment report spells bad news for retailers.
-Fifth, the labor market is still in dire straits — and so is consumer spending. Friday's disappointing payroll report is a very strong hint that the labor market is again deteriorating. Following the ECRI data, this is not surprising. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between the ECRI weekly index and payroll numbers. Furthermore, I expect much weaker employment reports in the weeks and months to come.
-Sixth, the housing mess has not been cleaned up yet. I expect another huge wave of mortgage debt defaults, leading to another round of falling home prices and problems for the banking sector.
http://www.weissgroupinc.com/research/index.html
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