Random Roving: Is Anyone Alive Out There???

Monday, April 6, 2009

Is Anyone Alive Out There???

Every once in a while you have one of those great days that you wish that you could wrap up and relive again some time in the future. Sunday was one of those great days. I started the day at an early Palm Sunday Mass. It's one of my favorites because it always calls for crowd participation. We, the parishioners, got to play the voice of the angry mob. The great story weaves very diverse themes of love, deceit, prophecy, disapointment, loyalty, cowardness, bravery, weakness, and sadness. Once again, the women in the story, Mary and Mary, stay strong while the eleven men flee and wander aimlessly. The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak.

After mass, it was off to Austin, one of my favorite cities. A beautiful drive with the convertible top down and Texas bluebonnets in full bloom across the pastures. Lunch on Lake Travis, a brisk hike along Town Lake, and then off to the hotel to prepare for the finale'. An attempt at a nap was terminated by my discovery of Braveheart on TV.....can't nap through that one! It was as good the 20th time as the first.

Some ritas and Tex Mex for dinner and then off to stop #1 on Springteen In Texas Week. Bruce and the E Street Band played 3 hours in the Texas Longhorn Drum. No breaks, no halftime. Three hours of great tunes interweaving the two themes of "tough times" and "hope". He opened up with Badlands that laid down the foundation for these times: "Lights out tonight, trouble in the heartland. Got a head-on collision, smashin in my guts man. Im caught in a crossfire that I don't understand." Then on to the new song, Outlaw Pete....could have been Outlaw Madoff! Back on top with Lucky Day and Working On A Dream. His one sermon came during Working On A Dream where he proclaimed that "we're going to build a house of hope, joy and faith".

The show included many classics and some I hadn't seen in some time. The band continues to deliver after all of these years. When the crowd was slowing down, Bruce yelled "is anyone alive out there?".

So back to my earlier story. It's Holy Week. Is anyone alive out there??

Land of Hopes & Dreams

Grab your ticket and your suitcase

Thunder's rolling down the tracks

You don't know where you're goin'

But you know you won't be back

Darlin' if you're weary

Lay your head upon my chest

We'll take what we can carry

And we'll leave the rest

Big Wheels rolling through fields

Where sunlight streams

Meet me in a land of hope and dreams

I will provide for you

And I'll stand by your side

You'll need a good companion for

This part of the ride

Leave behind your sorrows

Let this day be the last

Tomorrow there'll be sunshine

And all this darkness past

Big wheels roll through fields

Where sunlight streams

Meet me in a land of hope and dreams

This train

Carries saints and sinners

This train

Carries losers and winners

This Train

Carries whores and gamblers

This Train

Carries lost souls

This Train

Dreams will not be thwarted

This Train

Faith will be rewarded

This Train

Hear the steel wheels singin'

This Train

Bells of freedom ringin'

This Train

Carries broken-hearted

This Train

Thieves and sweet souls departed

This Train

Carries fools and kings

This Train

All aboard

This Train

Dreams will not be thwarted

This Train

Faith will be rewarded

This Train

Hear the steel wheels singin'

This Train

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Mission Statement

Friend: What's the mission of this blog?
Kirk: To be honest, I’m not really sure! Since March, 2000, I’ve been concerned with the state of the world and have felt compelled to share. I can’t really explain it.

Friend: A lot of these topics are just plain scary.
Kirk: Fear is an emotion. Read the information with a clear, balanced, and unemotional mind. My intent is not to scare anyone, but to motivate action. One of my favorite Buffet quotes: “It’s one thing to think that it is going to rain. It’s another to build an ark”. Go design and build your ark!

Friend: When did you become such a pessimist?
Kirk: I’m the most optimistic person I know! Pessimism and optimism are emotions. It’s best to make important decisions with as little emotion as possible. In 2000, I became very concerned with the future of our nation, world, and economy. On 9/11/01, those concerns escalated to another level. I believe that in hindsight, the entry into the new millennium will be noted as an important inflection point. To believe that the stock market is going lower does not make one a pessimistic. They say that there is always a bull market in something. In contrast, in 2001 I began to believe that oil and gold were due for a resurgence. So what does it make one that believes one thing is going up and the other down? History has shown that the world is quite cyclical. Through time we’ve had peaceful times and periods of great conflicts. Peace has never lasted forever. My research has led me to believe that tougher times are ahead. That’s not pessimistic, it’s an educated hypothesis. Don’t let fear paralyze you. Don’t be an ostrich.

Friend: Aren’t you obsessing over this?
Kirk: My concern for the future increases each day as I see events unfolding that others have forecasted for some time. Watching the news is like watching a movie replaying that I’ve already seen. When the market started crashing a few weeks ago, I wasn’t shocked at all. I’ve been waiting since May 2000. I see it as a natural cleansing that is required before the next phase of growth can occur. It’s like the appearance of the first blizzard in winter. You know it’s coming and you also know that spring will follow. There’s no need to be pessimistic or concerned because you know what to expect and you know to dress warm and to store up some firewood. But, don’t be a bear and go hide in a cave!

Friend: You seem to be enjoying this!
Kirk: No, this won’t be an enjoyable process, but the final destination and cleansing will be good for all of us as moral, hopeful, optimistic human beings.

Friend: When did you start thinking that you’re so smart?
Kirk: I don’t. I’m actually regurgitating information from people I believe know what they’re doing. I’m a messenger, a facilitator of information. I’m like Cliff Notes, but I’m free!

Friend: Why are you so negative on stocks? I’ve always heard that you should always own stocks.
Kirk: Yes, 90% of the experts will agree with that. Mr. Buffet just told the world so. I believe that there are times to pull out and observe from the sidelines. There’s a time to go for it on “4th and 1” and there’s a time to punt. I don’t believe that it’s time to be Les Miles. Stocks have been great investments for our entire adult life so we don’t know anything else. We’ve only seen a couple of seasons of the Kondratieff Cycle during our adult life.

Friend: Why are you so obsessed with the stock market?
Kirk: Actually I’m not. In May, 2000 I sold 100% of my stocks. Call it a “premature evacuation”! My real interest is aligned with Prechter’s theory that the markets are barometers of mass social mood. I’m thoroughly intrigued with the cyclical nature of historical events and how their timing aligns with market cycles. The purpose is to better understand potential future trends, events, and outcomes. My major concern the last few years is that we are due for a contraction phase. The expansion phase was so good and so long, so the next phase concerns me greatly. Is our generation, the 40-somethings, prepared for adversity? My greatest concern is that we have a 15 year old boy who, in three years, is a candidate for military service if a draft were to be reinstated. In contraction phases, the peace process ends and countries engage in wars. Resource wars for oil and water are very likely. The imperialistic invasion of Iraq is part of the escalating worldwide oil war. I believe that it’s very likely that the draft will reinstate due to the fact that our military is stretched thin and activity on dual fronts will be taxing. Say your prayers.

Friend: Do you really believe that one can predict the future?
Kirk: No I don’t believe that one can predict the exact future. I do believe that history repeats itself and that humans have short memories. With that said, history books are great places to learn. I also believe that the universe is very cyclical. I do believe that I can predict the weather next August in Houston within ten degrees. Yes I’m predicting the future, but it’s based on a consistent long term historical cycle. The timing is very difficult, but if you have a perspective on the character of the next phase, then you can be on watch for the inflection point.

Friend: So what should I do?
Kirk: I’m not qualified to be your financial planner and probably not qualified to be my own! I highly recommend that you watch Chris Martenson’s Crash Course. http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course/