Thursday, November 18, 2004

Prechter on Oil

Published by Elliott Wave International
Conviction as "Broad and Deep" as He's Seen in 30 Years...
The annual New Orleans Investment Conference was this past weekend, and, as in other years, Bob Prechter was there to give a talk. The November Elliott Wave Theorist (published today) gives Bob's impressions of what he heard -- several of his thoughts are well worth repeating here.

"If there was one theme of the conference, it was the inevitability of soaring oil prices.... People were clamoring to sign up for oil and gas deals, drilling operations, etc....
"The consensus that oil prices can only go upward for the rest of human existence is as broad and deep a conviction as I have ever witnessed toward any market in 30 years in the financial analysis profession. When oil was selling for $12 a barrel a few years ago, no one was interested. There were no booths at conferences touting higher oil. But isn't that exactly when investors should have been buying it?... The point is this: If almost everyone is betting on higher oil prices, then all bets are in."

What got my attention is the comment about conviction being as "broad and deep" as he has ever seen in 30 years -- that covers lots of ground and lots of conviction.
The key issue is clear: If all bets are in, where does the market go from here?

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