Friday, April 30, 2010

The Emerging Shift

More from the interview with Long Wave master, David Knox Barker:

"Human psychology drives the cycles and there are trends in psychology. For instance, if you look at the 1970s to early ‘80s and the force that brought Ronald Reagan into office, it was a seasonal change in the long wave. It was a shift from the Roosevelt era of the 1930s of “The government should go out and save me from the economic forces” to “Let the free market take care of itself.” Then with Obama we saw a shift back to the idea that the government needs to step in and control the markets. A lot of the psychology you see is manifested in political trends. In the 1930s we gave the New Deal a chance. I talked in about that in the 1995 edition of my book, that fact that we’d probably see a global version of the New Deal proposed during the present crisis. And sure enough that’s exactly what was proposed [during the credit crisis of 2008]. The fact that people are even talking about a global New Deal is a sign that the psychology has radically changed. The socialists are excited because they think we’re headed in that direction, but I think they’re in for a major disappointment. I think we’re heading for a shift [in psychology] to a degree larger than the previous shift in political psychology. I sincerely believe the Tea Party movement is an early manifestation of this emerging shift, which I believe will be toward the Great Republic."

Read the entire interview:

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Xenophobia At The Next Level

"Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets."
Random Roving - January 1, 2010

Two stories caught my ear last week both relating to the continued increase in xenophobic behavior.  As the contraction phase continues, the masses, due to fear, will tend to aggregate together based on "likeness".  Remember, the "herd" always gets closer when the predator approaches.  Anger will be directed at those that are "different".  Different could come in many forms: race, religion, politics, and many other aspects on various scales.

Arizona passed a law to arrest illegal immigrants. Belgium is attempting to pass a law to make female burkas illegal to wear.  My interest in these topics is not necessarily whether they are right or wrong, but more on the timing and alignment of mass social mood.  When the illegal immigrants were building our homes and office buildings during the "credit orgy", we didn't seem to care.  When Belgium's economy was expanding, burkas were not an issue.  We focus on different issues during expansions and contractions.  The "happy and greedy" era is over and "fear and anger" have moved to the forefront.

"The measure - set to take effect in late July or early August - would make it a crime under state law to be in the U.S. illegally. It directs state and local police to question people about their immigration status if there is reason to suspect they are illegal."
Source CBS News

"Following in France’s attempted footsteps, Belgium is on its way to becoming the first country in Europe to ban the burka. A parliamentary committee agreed yesterday to outlaw the wearing of face-covering veils in public. The full Parliament will vote later this month.  Under the proposals, women could face a week in prison or a fine for wearing a veil in public."
Source: Styleite

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Rusty R.I.P.

Rusty (aka Rudder) rest in peace my friend.  You were the most selfless pet.
Rusty 1990-2010

Hawkings, E.T., and Native Americans

This just in from one of the most brilliant on the planet:
"Renowned British astrophysicist Stephen Hawking says intelligent alien life-forms almost certainly exist, but trying to communicate with them is 'too risky.' Their arrival, he says, would be like Columbus landing in the Americas, 'which didn't turn out out very well for the Native Americans.'"
SOURCE: Associated Press

Monday, April 26, 2010

A Technical Look At The Markets

For you market technicians, here's a really nice technical look at the markets from the PFS Group:

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Opa - Part 2

Greece continues to make the headlines.  The EU is squabbling and this bankrupt country is seeking a bailout from the EU and the IMF.  Wouldn't it be nice if the media provided some information leading up to these crises?  It would be helpful to hear about the "tremors" before the "big quake" occurs.
Random Roving presented the case in December, 2008.

"The weakest fall first with more to follow. The onion gets peeled back one layer of a time."
Random Roving - March 6, 2009 - "Peeling Back The Onion"

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Origin Of The Sheeple

If you've read this blog for some time, you know that I adore the term "sheeple".  I can't remember where I first heard it, but it just makes me laugh.  The mammalian nature of humans is sometimes comical.  The Google Elves even provided me with this great image.

I was at church Sunday, and this reading from John was read:

"When they had finished breakfast, Jesus said to Simon Peter, 'Simon, son of John, do you love me more than these?' He said to him, 'Yes, Lord, you know that I love you.' He said to him, 'Feed my lambs.'  He then said to him a second time, 'Simon, son of John, do you love me?' He said to him, 'Yes, Lord, you know that I love you.' He said to him, 'Tend my sheep.'  He said to him the third time, 'Simon, son of John, do you love me?' Peter was distressed that he had said to him a third time, 'Do you love me?' and he said to him, 'Lord, you know everything; you know that I love you.' (Jesus) said to him, 'Feed my sheep'."   John 21:15-17

So there you have it.  The term "sheeple" has biblical roots!

Friday, April 23, 2010

Corporatism vs Socialism

More from the interview with Long Wave master, David Knox Barker:

"It’s easy to look around at what has happened since the credit crisis and say, “This looks like a Redistributive World Empire.” But it’s also interesting to look at a recent quote from Ron Paul, who was responding to the accusation that Obama is a socialist. Ron Paul said, “Obama isn’t a socialist, he’s a corporatist.” The corporatist world view is the same view as the Redistributive World Empire, namely that there’s an elite class of business and government taken care of no matter what happens while the middle class is taxed to make sure that the elite class survives."

Read the entire interview:

Thursday, April 22, 2010

What Makes Us Fragile

"What makes us fragile is that institutions cannot have the same virtues (honor, truthfulness, courage, loyalty, tenacity) as individuals."
Nassim Taleb

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Puru & The Rock

Puru Saxena presents his forecast:

"The developed nations are over-extended, their debt levels are ballooning and their governments are creating copious amounts of money. Put simply, most industrialised nations are now caught between a rock and a hard place. After years of excesses, the developed world is slowly beginning to realise that you cannot continue to live beyond your means and spend your way to prosperity. Today, US national debt stands just north of US$12 trillion, its fiscal deficit for this year alone should come in around US$1.6 trillion and the nation faces mind-boggling deficits for as far as the eye can see. Furthermore, demand for US government debt has begun to wane and this implies that the Federal Reserve will have to resort to creating even more money over the following years. Make no mistake; the US cannot afford higher interest-rates and in order to keep a lid on the government bond yields, we are convinced that the Federal Reserve will resort to debt monetisation. In other words, the central bank will create new dollars in order to fund the deficits. Needless to say, this money-creation will be extremely dilutive and end up undermining the viability of the world’s reserve currency. If our assessment is correct, within the course of this decade, the interest-payments on the existing government debt will become so large that the US Treasury will need to issue new debt just so that it can keep paying interest on its outstanding debt. When that happens, you be sure that foreigners will not be eager buyers of US government debt. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will have to create additional money, just to keep the Ponzi-scheme going. And when all else fails, the US will simply debase its currency, thereby repaying its creditors in significantly depreciated dollars. Although our prognosis may sound far-fetched, we want to remind you that throughout history, currency debasement has been the norm rather than the exception. Let us put it simply, the US is now left with three options:
•Sovereign default (unimaginable)
•Severe economic contraction (unlikely)
•Currency debasement (most probable)"

The entire article:

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

The Great Republic

An interview with Long Wave master, David Knox Barker:

Q: The book chapter with the most frightening implications was the one entitled, “A Redistributive World Empire.” Please tell us more about it and what are the chances that the U.S. enters into this type of political system in the years ahead?

Barker: I picked up that term from, Redistributive World Empire, from Immanuel Wallerstein. There’s an interesting group called World Systems Analysis that studies the advance of civilizations, cultures, etc. Wallerstein has said that in the past he has said that any world economy has ultimately evolved into a redistributive world empire. Rome is the classic example of this type of empire, where the bread and circuses were required to pacify the masses and the Roman Senate was completely corrupt and of course the Caesars became corrupt and ultimately Rome collapsed. What’s interesting is that Wallerstein’s work has always seen that progression from a world economy to what he calls a redistributive world empire. This time around, however, he’s proposing that each long wave is a kind of birth pang of global socialism. Incidentally, Wallerstein has very left-leaning socialist inclinations. He believes that instead of going toward a redistributive world empire we’re going to go toward global socialism. Of course if you look at what has happened in the last year and the way we responded to the global financial crisis, you have to say, “Oh my goodness, Wallerstein may be right after all.” But if you look closer, what really has transpired is what looks more like a Redistributive World Empire where the middle class is taxed really for the interest of an elite class of political and business managers. I guess another term of Redistributive World Empire would be crony state capitalism. And state capitalism isn’t the same as international free market capitalism.

So basically in the book I present three scenarios. Scenario one is what Wallerstein says, namely that each long wave leads to a bigger crisis of capitalism with the birth of global socialism. I don’t think that’s where we’re headed. Then I examine the observation that in the past a crisis in the world economy always produced a redistributive world empire. You’d have to say that’s the most likely outcome where we’re headed based on the evidence. My proposal is the Great Republic, and I truly believe there is a great chance to go in the direction of true international free market capitalism as a result of the crisis that we’re sailing into. I think as you look around and see the austerity in Ireland and see the Germans preaching austerity to the Greeks, it’s important to realize that austerity is not a redistributive world empire. I actually believe that a sovereign debt collapse would be the ultimate mother of invention leading to the necessity of a Great Republic. There’s definitely the potential for such a collapse to produce change towards the Great Republic.

Read the entire interview:

Monday, April 19, 2010

Corralling The Movement

"Dissent and peaceful protest are portrayed as dangerous to society. Voicing your opinion is depicted as anti-American by the liberal MSM. On the other side, the Fox News neo-cons led by Ann Coulter and Sarah Palin, are trying to corral the movement for their purposes. This is what the entrenched ruling elite do. The fat cats from both parties want to derail the Tea Party movement. Smaller government is not a goal of Democrats or Republicans."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Deceitful Mouthpieces And Their Non-Thinking Worshippers

"There were already two fiscal hurricanes churning towards our shores before Obama and his non-critical thinking Democratic minions launched a third storm. No matter how many intellectually deceitful mouthpieces like Paul Krugman, Keith Olbermann, and Sean Hannity ignore the facts, the fiscal foundation of the country is crumbling under the weight of unfunded entitlement promises, out of control government spending and far flung military misadventures. Only someone who is intellectually bankrupt, like Krugman, would declare the National Debt at $8 trillion as a looming disaster when George Bush was President, but declare that a $12 trillion National Debt headed towards $20 trillion isn’t a danger now that Barack Obama is President. Olbermann proclaimed Afghanistan a disastrous misadventure when Bush was President. Now that Obama runs the show, the surge is working and Obama’s brilliant leadership has turned the tide. Hannity never uttered a negative word about a Republican neo-con, the Iraq War or the Afghan strategy between 2001 and 2008. Now he defames Obama on a nightly basis for being weak on Defense, despite that fact that Obama has doubled the troops in Afghanistan and proposed the largest Defense budget in the history of the country. The non-thinking worshippers of these ideologues never question or even reflect upon the facts."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

Entire article:

Friday, April 16, 2010

Money Supply Divergence

At the end of 2008, the money supply growth exhibited significant shifts in direction amongst the variables (M1-M3).  M3 growth declined rapidly while M1 rocketed upward.  Is this a telling sign of where consumer spending is heading?

Source: Wikipedia

The Burden of The Citizens

The reality that most have not grasped yet is that the consumer and citizens will "bear the brunt" of this crisis. We will absorb the debt through taxation on all fronts. It's still comical to think that Team Red didn't think that their candidate would raise taxes. Whoever is in office on all levels (federal, state, and local), will be increasing taxes for years to come.

I've made several posts regarding the "outer layers of the onion" like Iceland. Recently, a bill was proposed to have each citizen take on the debt of a failed bank. Here's what resulted:

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- "Icelanders rejected by a massive majority a bill that would saddle each citizen with $16,400 of debt in protest at U.K. and Dutch demands that they cover losses triggered by the failure of a private bank. Ninety-three percent voted against the so-called Icesave bill, according to preliminary results on national broadcaster RUV. Final results will be published today. The bill would have obliged the island to take on $5.3 billion, or 45 percent of last year’s economic output, in loans from the U.K. and the Netherlands to compensate the two countries for depositor losses stemming from the collapse of Landsbanki Islands hf more than a year ago. The island’s political leaders say they’ve already moved on to talks over a new accord…"

You have to like the name of the bill, "Icesave". At least at this point, the people still believe that they can reject the payment. It's inevitable that it will come in some shape or form under disguise.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Happy Tax Day

This day always presents an excellent opportunity to complain about the tax rate in the United States.  The graph below might bring you some comfort from a personal tax perspective.  All countries will be raising their taxes in the years to come to pay for our 28 year "credit orgy".  We will likely stay in the same relative position which is lower than most.  It's a great blessing to live in this country.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Market Psychology Correlation

In March, 2009, I presented a few market psychology models.  I've overlain Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigque's model with a current chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  It makes a nice correlation for the past eight years.  Are we "rocketing" out of the "bull trap" and believing that things are normal again?  Is fear, capitulation, and despair in our future?  Time will tell.  As I always say, plan for ALL scenarios.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Turning The Heat Up In Thailand

The heat continues to rise in Thailand.

China's Strengths

China continues to make the news as our chief competitor and financier. One of my email newsletters had some interesting perspective.

Robert Hsu claims that China's strengths are:
  • China has little exposure to the problems we have here.
  • China has no restrictions on spending stimulus money.
  • China’s banks are stronger, with no subprime mess holding them back.
  • China has over a $2 trillion surplus to spend as it sees fit.
  • China has turned its growth internal with a $586 stimulus spending program.
  • China has its own 1.3 billion-man market to sell to and a workforce that’s growing richer and spending money every day!

Monday, April 12, 2010

The Maestro's Canary

I love when Greenspan sends his warning signals.  A little late, Mr. Maestro!

"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a 'canary in the mine' that may signal further gains in interest rates.  Higher yields reflect investor concerns over 'this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,' Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s 'Political Capital With Al Hunt.'  'I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,' said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. An increase in long-term interest rates 'will make the housing recovery very difficult to implement and put a dampening on capital investment as well.'"
Business Week

"Alan Greenspan told a panel investigating the causes of the financial crisis Wednesday that steps can be taken to limit the impact of another shock, but the former Federal Reserve chairman warned that regulators can't fully prevent another crisis from happening.  In written testimony presented to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Greenspan said the recent crisis highlights the limitations of government oversight in the financial markets. 'Regulators cannot successfully use the bully pulpit to manage asset prices, and they cannot calibrate regulation and supervision in response to movements in asset prices," he said. "Nor can they fully eliminate the possibility of future crises.'"
Source: CNN

Yes, Maestro Greenspan, but they can stop printing money.

"Greenspan was a big cheerleader for adjustable-rate mortgages in 2004. He dismissed the idea that record levels of household debt were a problem as long as people could service it, courtesy of his super-low interest rates. He repeatedly rejected the notion of a housing bubble, admitting belatedly that there might be some “froth” in the residential real estate market. He gave political support to the Bush tax cut in 2001 because -- get this -- unless the government reduced taxes, there would be no more Treasuries for the Fed to buy to conduct monetary policy! He refused to raise margin requirements in the late 1990s to defuse the technology stock bubble, arguing publicly it would have no effect. (Privately, he acknowledged it would curtail the bubble but might nail the economy in the process.) He advocated a “risk-management” approach to monetary policy and failed to exercise even a modicum of risk- management during two asset bubbles on his watch. Could anyone have been more wrong about so many things than Alan Greenspan? And now he has the chutzpah to rewrite history? He will certainly give it another whirl at today’s hearing of the Financial Inquiry Crisis Commission."
Caroline Baum, Bloomberg

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Aristotle & The Story of Thales

"Aristotle described the story of Thales, a poor philosopher from Miletus who developed a 'financial device, which involves a principle of universal application.' Thales used his skill in forecasting and predicted that the olive harvest would be exceptionally good the next autumn. Confident in his prediction, he made agreements with local olive-press owners to deposit his money with them to guarantee him exclusive use of their olive presses when the harvest was ready. Thales successfully negotiated low prices because the harvest was in the future and no one knew whether the harvest would be plentiful or poor and because the olive-press owners were willing to hedge against the possibility of a poor yield. When the harvest-time came, and many presses were wanted all at once and of a sudden, he let them out at any rate he pleased, and made a large quantity of money."
Source: Wikipedia

Now you understand today's financial markets.

Saturday, April 10, 2010

The Wall of Worry

On, Kelley Wright makes an interesting case for market correction:
"The above notwithstanding, many in the punditry and on the sell side of Wall Street are trumpeting that investors are missing out on a new secular bull market by focusing too much on the ever present wall of worry. Let me tell you why I think they will rue the day. Germany is not going to come to the rescue of Greece, or any other country for that matter. In fact, I would suggest that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Europe's economic and monetary union as we know it. This will have consequences across the global financial markets. Recently signed health care legislation is a disaster for the US across many different fronts, the least of which is there still isn’t enough money to pay for it, which will result in a VAT tax and austerity initiatives; neither of which is pro-growth and drains consumption. State budgets are a mess; California is probably bankrupt. With unfunded pension liabilities into the hundreds of billions, not to mention the added costs of new health care mandates, the states will be the next group to line up for bailouts. Officially, unemployment is just below 10%. When looked at fully, however, the number is closer to 17%. People without a job do not consume; people worried about their job act in much the same way. The next change in trend for interest rates will most surely result in higher yields. While this may be a plus for coupon clippers, it will be a drain on those carrying consumer debts. Housing is still a mess. Commercial real estate loans are the next shoe to drop. So to those who think we are in a new secular bull market, I suggest you take off your rose colored glasses and look at bear market history. All major bear markets have had a similar pattern; three down legs interspersed by two, usually profitable, counter-trend rallies. If the present bear market began in 2000, the first down leg ended in late 2002. The first counter-trend rally topped in 2007 and the second leg down ended in March, 2009. So if history repeats a third leg waits out there. Is it chiseled in stone? Of course not; there is always the possibility that this time it is different."

An Important Map

This will be an important map to understand in the future:

The detailed explanation:

Friday, April 9, 2010

Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Boogeyman Strikes Again!

Well, the Boogeyman struck again.

"The Qatari diplomat who caused a midair security scare won't face charges after claiming he was trying to light his shoes on fire when it appears he was simply smoking in the bathroom. Passenger onboard United Airlines flight apparently tried to sneak a smoke. More PhotosFederal officials said Mohammed al Modadi was on official business when he boarded United Airlines Flight 663 from Washington to Denver, giving him diplomatic immunity. A law firm spokesman told The Associated Press that al Modadi has been released and was headed back to Washington."
Source: ABC News

Legends At Augusta

Two legends, Palmer and Nicklaus, tee off together today at Augusta National. Two fine champions, but also two real gentlemen. I hope that the media will focus some attention on these two today versus Tiger.

How can we get the media to focus more on the better part of our society. How much "dumbing down" with Jon and Kate, the Kardashians, Brittany, and the Bachelor can we take?

The Uniting Force

I'll continue to rant about the wasted time and energy of politics. The "them vs us" battle hasn't been this emotional in a long time. But, I argue that "behind the scenes", those "in charge" are really united. This might explain why after the financial meltdown, there has been ZERO reform. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Dianna Farrell:
Obama Administration: Deputy Director, National Economic Council
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Financial Analyst

Stephen Friedman:
Obama Administration: Chairman, President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Board Member (Chairman, 1990-94; Director, 2005-)

Gary Gensler:
Obama Administration: Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner and Co-head of Finance

Robert Hormats:
Obama Administration: Undersecretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, State Department
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs Group

Philip Murphy:
Obama Administration: Ambassador to Germany
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Head of Goldman Sachs, Frankfurt

Mark Patterson:
Obama Administration: Chief of Staff to Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geitner
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Lobbyist 2005-2008; Vice President for Government Relations

John Thain:
Obama Administration: Advisor to Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geitner
Former Goldman Sachs Title: President and Chief Operating Officer (1999-2003)

Henry Paulson:
Bush II Administration: Secretary, Treasury 2006 - 2009
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Chairman and CEO (1998-2006)

Neel Kashkari:
Bush II Administration: Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability, Treasury (2008 – 2009)Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice President, San Francisco; led Information Technology
Security Investment Banking Practice

Reuben Jeffery III:
Bush II Administration: Undersecretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, State Department (2007 –2009)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Managing Partner Paris until 2002
Security Investment Banking Practice

Robert Steel:
Bush II Administration: Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, Treasury, (2006 – 2008)Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman – 2004

Steve Shafran:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Private equity business in Asia until 2000

Edward C. Forst:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Co-head of Goldman’s investment management business

Dan Jester:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Deputy CFO

Kendrick R. Wilson III:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Chairman of Goldman’s financial institutions groups

Joshua Bolten:
Bush II Administration: White House Chief of Staff (2006 – 2009)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Executive Director, Legal & Government Affairs (1994-99)

Gary Gensler:
Bush II Administration: Undersecretary, Treasury (1999-2001) and Assistant Secretary, Treasury (1997-1999)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner and Co-head of Finance

Robert Rubin:
Bush II Administration: Secretary, Treasury 1995-1999
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman (1987-90)

Robert Zoellick:
Bush II Administration: United States Trade Representative (2001-2005), Deputy Secretary of State (2005-2006), World Bank President (2007 -)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman, International (2006-07)

William C Dudley:
NY Federal Reserve: Current President/CEO
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner and managing director – 2007

Stephen Friedman:
NY Federal Reserve: Former Chairman of the Board – 2009
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Board Member (Chairman, 1990-94; Director, 2005-)
Other Noteworthy Appointees:

Edward Liddy:
Current Title: AIG CEO
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Board Member (Chairman, 1990-94; Director, 2005-)

Duncan Niederauer:
Current Title: Chair/CEO NYSE
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Managing Director – 2007

Malcolm Turnbull:
Current Title: Federal Leader, Liberal Party, Australia
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner (1998-2001)

Mark Carney:
Current Title: Governor, Bank of Canada
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Managing Director Goldman Sachs Canada until 2003

David Watson:
Current Title: Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Chief European economist

Romano Prodi:
Current Title: Prime Minister of Italy (1996-1998 and 2006-2008) and President of the European Commission (1999-2004)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Paid adviser/consultant 1990
– 1993

Mario Draghi:
Current Title: Governor of the Bank of Italy (2006- )
Former Goldman Sachs Title: European Deputy Chairman/Partner until 2006

Massimo Tononi:
Current Title: Italian Deputy Treasury Chief (2006-2008)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner 2004 - 2006


Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Economic Philosophizing

"The economic crisis is well under way. However, there are major differences in predicting how the crisis will end. Yes, “under way”, because most people still think that we will be soon coming out of the crisis, may be even within a couple of months. Economic philosophizers still prognosticate that the economic boom is about re-emerge. Many in the Establishment even declare that the crisis is over. They forecast business as usual – the resurrection of the consumption-based economy, only if the banks were to start loaning again. Unfortunately, this will be impossible. However, this time the instability of the system has reached the core. The current economic policies can only lead us to one result – the destruction of the current global monetary system through hyperinflation. The flawed mainstream remedy, based on the failed doctrine of Keynesianism, is that in difficult times the state should intervene aggressively into the economy by spending more (and bailing out everybody) in order to protect jobs. As grim as it may sound, there is a glimmer of hope – the beginning of the hyperinflation is also the beginning of the end for the Crisis. Financial assets accumulated by individuals and businesses during the boom years have to be destroyed – the price for our financial folly today will be paid tomorrow. There is no way around it, as the scarce economic resources backing these financial assets have been consumed through the sophisticated redistribution mechanisms of innovative financial instruments and deficit spending. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a free lunch – the Baby Boomer generation has had an extra lunch today, but will have to skip the lunch tomorrow. The economic crisis is here and hyperinflation is on the way."

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

The Saint & The Communist

"When I feed the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a Communist."
Brazilian Bishop

Monday, April 5, 2010

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Happy Easter

Happy Easter to all! I hope that your Lenten journey was introspective.

A re-post of some wise words from late Father David Kirk:

"If you want to find God, really find God, go to where people are suffering. There, if you can open your eyes to the needs of others, and let your heart respond to're in for a great adventure! May this Sunday be a day for beginning to DO the word of God and not simple hear the word of God. Amen."

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Living With Your Eyes Closed

"Everybody wake up,
If your living with your eyes closed"

Dave Matthews Band, "Everybody Wake Up (Our Finest Hour Arrives)"

Friday, April 2, 2010

The Most Famous Mob

I've been posting a lot about the "angry mob" lately. Today might be a good day to reflect on one of the most famous angry mobs.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

April Fools Day

Enjoy a laugh with these fools! Mr. Hand would be proud!