Occupy Destruction

For a long time I noted that when the tear gas appeared we will have entered a new level of the contraction.  That occurred last year. Check.  With the recent events in Oakland by the Occupy Movement, I believe we've entered the next "tick down" with protestors causing destruction of property.

"Officials surveyed damage Sunday from a volatile Occupy protest that resulted in hundreds of arrests the day before and left the historic City Hall vandalized after demonstrators broke into the building, smashed display cases, cut electrical wires and burned an American flag.  Police placed the number of arrests at about 400 from Saturday's daylong protest — the most contentious since authorities dismantled the Occupy Oakland encampment late last year."
Source: The Chicago Tribune

The Herd Gets Armed

It appears that the herd and the angry mob are getting armed.

"The FBI said the number of people who got background checks to buy guns for December had already broken a record, and that was with several days left in the month."
Source: BayouBuzz.com
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/louisiana-local-news/baton-rouge-news/414722-gun-sales-set-record-this-month

Silvio & JoePa

Many websites report the news and regurgitate the Associated Press. Here my goal is to attempt to connect the dots. So, linking Italy's PM and college football coach Joe Paterno means what?

One of the core themes of this blog is that humans herd and subsequently create cycles of "mass" behavior through history. This can be observed in financial markets, war cycles, politics, fashion, pop culture, and many other categories.

We all know that the recent events at Penn State are a tragedy. What's significant to me is how quickly legendary coach Joe Paterno was terminated. He is guilty in part, but lets face it, he didn't perform the hideous crimes. The conclusion is, during contracting cycles where mass social mood dominates in "fearful and angry", icons fall quickly. The mob moves quickly and topples the ones that once stood on a pedestal. In contrast, during expansion cycles, icons survive great controversies. Bill Clinton's sexual encounter with a young intern might be the best example of all time. Many still believe that he was one of the greatest presidents of all time. Well timed bad behavior.

Jumping across "the pond", Italy's Prime Minister is sacked after serving 17 years in office.  Do the people of Italy really believe that putting a new person in office immediately solves the debt crisis?  No, they are just angry and "lynching" feels good.  Many more leaders and icons will tumble.  Libya might be a great microcosm where one asks the question "ok, now what?".

"Silvio Berlusconi dominated Italy for 17 years with a unique mix of political talent and brazen behavior but in the end the born showman was humiliatingly jeered from office, brought down by pressure from abroad.  Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi formally resigned on Saturday, ending one of the most scandal-plagued eras in recent Italian history amid the jeers of hundreds of protestors gathered in central Rome to celebrate his departure."
Source: Reuters

"The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 30, 2008

Angry Birds

"We're in an Angry Birds kind of world, unfortunately.  One of the reasons for this is that too many people are focusing on what isn't working and less on what is.  Instead of promoting solutions, there seems to be a 'tear it down' atmostphere at every level of society."
Cal Thomas, Conservative Columnist
Source: CNN

"As social mood becomes more positive people become more confident trusting and content. They feel little need to prepare a defensive or offensive force. As social mood becomes more negative, people become more fearful, distrusting, and angry. They are impelled to prepare to defend themselves or attack an enemy."

Elliott Wave Theorist, 1999

Occupy What?

Jimmy Kimmel might have summed up the "Occupy Movement" when he captured "Occupy Wall Street" protestors saying this, "What do we want? We're not really sure! When do we want it? Now!"

Fear and anger without any direction or leadership might not progress far.  An angry leader has to appear. Stay tuned.

The Fury

"The mob doesn't think. It has no mind of its own."
Joe Wilson (Spencer Tracy's character in "The Fury")

C'est La France

Les jeunes français prennent en charge.

Now That's What I'm Talkin' Bout

And the Tea Party is fired up about 86,000 people at the Glenn Beck "love-fest"???  The French are leading the charge.

"In the fourth such protest in a little over a month, unions estimated that 3.5 million people had taken to the streets against President Nicolas Sarkozy's pension bill – a 20 per cent rise from previous marches and what they called an 'exceptional' figure."
Source: Telegraph UK

Now we're starting to talk about something tangible!

"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'."
Random Roving, "Three Strikes You're Out", November 29, 2009

The Return Of The Crusades

"Like the prophets of old, Terry Jones has a message -- and it's fiery. The controversial Florida preacher, who first lit a spark on Facebook when he called for people around the world to set fire to copies of the Koran, is now at the center of an international conflagration."
Source: ABC News

"The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible."
Random Roving, "Happy New Year! 2010 Is Here", January 1, 2010

Kangaroo Court

"In times like these politics gets very crazy. The public forgets how misled and confused it is and develops vicious certainties that do not necessarily jibe with reality. The public becomes a mob and democracy turns into a kangaroo court, which is to say: a mockery of the rule of law. I suspect we'll see a correlation of turbulence in politics and markets as the weeks pound forward toward Halloween. By election day, democracy itself will be in disrepute and the streets will run with mad dogs. When this sucker goes down (to paraphrase a past president) it's going to be like a fire in a circus tent. Don't expect much from the clowns' bucket brigade. We'll be lucky if they don't toss gasoline into the grandstands."
James Kunstler, Author, "The Long Emergency"

Entire Article:
http://kunstler.com/blog/2010/08/the-queasy-season.html

Chaos In Kyrgyzstan

The mob obtains a victory in Kyrgyzstan.

Sipping Tea

The Huffington Post reports:

"Abusive, derogatory and even racist behavior directed at House Democrats by Tea Party protesters on Saturday left several lawmakers in shock. Preceding the president's speech to a gathering of House Democrats, thousands of protesters descended around the Capitol to protest the passage of health care reform. The gathering quickly turned into abusive heckling, as members of Congress passing through Longworth House office building were subjected to epithets and even mild physical abuse. A staffer for Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told reporters that Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) had been spat on by a protestor. Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), a hero of the civil rights movement, was called a 'ni--er.' And Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) was called a 'faggot,' as protestors shouted at him with deliberately lisp-y screams. Frank, approached in the halls after the president's speech, shrugged off the incident. But Clyburn was downright incredulous, saying he had not witnessed such treatment since he was leading civil rights protests in South Carolina in the 1960s. 'It was absolutely shocking to me,' Clyburn said, in response to a question from the Huffington Post. 'Last Monday, this past Monday, I stayed home to meet on the campus of Claflin University where fifty years ago as of last Monday... I led the first demonstrations in South Carolina, the sit ins... And quite frankly I heard some things today I have not heard since that day. I heard people saying things that I have not heard since March 15, 1960 when I was marching to try and get off the back of the bus.'"

"As this cycle continues downward, it will be important to know what you believe in. You will be challenged to stand up for what you believe in whatever that is. When you see the cowardly hooded white man on horseback heading down the road, what are you going to do about it?"
Random Roving, "The Man Under The Hood" - November 9, 2009

The Media & The Mob

The media is catching on, but "late to the party" as always. More perspective relating to Evan Bayh's announcment.

"As voter polls continue to show a rising tide of resentment for congressional incumbents, Indiana's Evan Bayh became the latest official to announce he will not seek re-election."
PBS Newshour - February 16, 2010

"Anti-incumbent, anti-government sentiment permeates the air. A lot can change in the next nine months, but the current political pendulum seems to be swinging against the incumbent Democratic majority and towards a purified, conservative Republican party."
The Daily Campus

What they don't realize is that the angry mob is "swinging the pendulum" at whoever is in office despite their political party. Team Red is missing the point. The same phenomenom that put Obama in office also put "Centerfold Boy" Brown in office. The angry mob wants anyone BUT who currently holds the office.

"The wrath of angry voters has had a decidedly bipartisan impact, with recent retirement announcements coming from Republican Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and other Republican House members from Michigan, Indiana, Arkansas and Arizona."
CBS News

"I used to think that a whole generation of new, young voters would be disillusioned if Barack Obama was not elected president. Now I think those same new, young voters are becoming disillusioned because he is president--and he hasn't delivered on changing the way Washington works."
US News & World Reports

"National swings between the two parties are amplified by politicians' natural tendency to stay put when things are going well and retire when the political climate looks stormy."
Andrew Gelman - FiveThirtyEight.com

"There is clearly more such mayhem to come, and Congress and financial authorities of every stripe are hard at work preparing the tar and feathers. A big bear market in social mood always attaches itself to the reputations of those who rose highest in the preceding advance."
Robert Prechter - January 2009

"It's interesting to watch "the shift" occur live. After crossing a significant inflection point in the year 2000, we have seen a downward trend in mass social mood. Aligned with this shift, we've seen many witch hunts. Suddenly there are witches everywhere!
Random Roving - October 20, 2009 - "Witches In Edinburgh"

"The angry mob is seeking culprits. The game of politics is hot as ever. Rush Limbaugh has resurfaced as the Republican hero. Obama is now to blame for this whole crisis. Those with financial losses are seeking someone to blame."
Random Roving - March 7, 2009 - "The Blame Game"

The Sound of Hooves On The Pavement

The word "change" has returned in the political arena. As I stated before the presidential election, it's a battle between the two mass social mood emotions: "fear" and "anger". Anger won out in that election even though Team Red got very aggressive with fear at the end (e.g. "he's not even a US citizen!", "he's the anti-Christ").

Mass. Voters: It Was Time For Change
Brown Election A Signal To Washington, State Democrats
BOSTON -- "Massachusetts election of its first Republican to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades may have sent political shock waves reverberating through Washington, but Scott Brown's big win may not have been much of a surprise to Bay State voters, many of whom said it simply signals their hunger for change. Brown, 50, a little-known GOP state senator from Wrentham, Mass., staged an epic upset Tuesday when he beat an entrenched Democratic party attorney general, Martha Coakley, to grab the Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy for 47 years."
Source: WCVB Boston

It wasn't truly an incumbent election, but it was a significant "incumbent position".

"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving - January 1, 2010

"But hubris has yielded to shock here at the possibility that the next political trend the Bay State might foreshadow is a voter backlash against the Democratic Party. That election, which will be held on Tuesday, was widely seen as a formality. Are we in for another shot heard 'round the world? Perhaps. More likely, listen for the sound of horse hooves on the pavement, and a modern-day version of Paul Revere's historic warning—the backlash is coming."
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Technological Stress

I made a reference to this article a couple of weeks ago. The contributor has a very interesting perspective on the intertwining aspects of technology, mass social mood, and the rapidly changing world. He seems to align with the interpretation of 1999 beginning the "fear and anger" cycle.

"The question is: Will we be able to move beyond this decade of anxiety?The new millennium looked as it was off to an edgy start in 2000 with mass paranoia about the Y2K bug infecting the world’s computers. After that scare fizzled out, an actual disaster struck, driving panic into the hearts of many in the West: The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C. The collective mood of the first decade of this millennium has been, in some ways, coloured by the reactions to this unprecedented and savage attack on U.S. terrain. Fear has been the decade’s dominant theme, leading leaders in many countries to use technology to expand their military might, their spy networks and their “security.” With 2010 arriving next month, many are wondering whether the “war on terror” and all that’s gone with it has accomplished much. For one thing, fewer people than ever seem to feel secure."

The entire article:
http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/thesearch/archive/2009/12/02/20-powerful-trends-go-with-us-into-next-decade.aspx