Darkness At The Box Office

As I watched "Hunger Games" with my daughter, nephew, and brother-in-law last weekend, I couldn't help but think about the alignment of the dark theme of the movie with the contracting cycle that we're in.  It's so fascinating that a book about teens murdering each other in a game is required reading for class in some schools.  Yes, the storyline is interesting, but the darkness of the story and the dark imagery throughout the movie is telling.  I had the same revelation sitting through the first Twilight movie. Darkness reigns for sure.  First, "Harry Potter", then "Twilight" and now "Hunger Games".  If I remember correctly, there's not a ray of sunshine in any of the movies....both literally and figuratively.  Yes, "Hunger Games" presents a message about a potential future for our country.  Some could argue that the movie depicts the 1% and the 99% very well.  My fascination is more with the fact that these dark themes are the mega-movies of the current and past decade.  As I've mentioned many times, Robert Prechter with Elliott Wave International has done significant research regarding movie and music themes and how they align with mass social mood. It would be hard to argue after watching thirty minutes of the world news at night that the world isn't in a "dark" mood.  The chart below places each movie along my "mass social mood barometer", the Dow/Gold Ratio.  Interesting alignment of the mega-movie release dates and their place along the "Great Contraction" cycle.  The real concerning point is that we're a long ways from the bottom of the contraction. Many more dark films to watch I'm afraid.

The Mass Social Mood Barometer (Dow/Gold Ratio)

Fuggeddabowdit

"We tell ourselves we’re in an economic recovery, meaning we expect to return to a prior economic state, namely, a turbo-charged “consumer” economy fueled by easy credit and cheap energy. Fuggeddabowdit. That part of our history is over. We’ve entered a contraction that will seem permanent until we reach an economic re-set point that comports with what the planet can actually provide for us. That re-set point is lower than we would like to imagine. Our reality-based assignment is the intelligent management of contraction. We don’t want this assignment. We’d prefer to think that things are still going in the other direction, the direction of more, more, more. But they’re not. Whether we like it or not, they’re going in the direction of less, less, less. Granted, this is not an easy thing to contend with, but it is the hand that circumstance has dealt us. Nobody else is to blame for it.” – Jim Kunstler

Evangelistic Contraction

"The North Carolina-based Billy Graham Evangelistic Association is laying off nearly 50 workers, or about 10 percent of its staff, as it shifts focus to its online ministry and other initiatives. Rhinehart says the workers losing their jobs are getting severance packages and career assistance.  About 55 workers were let go in 2009."Source: Washington Post

"The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen 'the peak'. Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals."Random Roving, "Happy New Year 2010 is Here", January 1, 2010 

Article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/on-faith/billy-graham-evangelistic-association-to-lay-off-nearly-50-workers-shifting-focus-to-internet/2012/03/01/gIQA5E4DkR_story.html

Shock & Sacrifices

“In real life our species has such a modest ability to deal with distant outcomes or to defer gratification that a bad ending is probably inevitable. We need, it seems, the shock of a Pearl Harbor to really gear up and make sacrifices.”
Jeremy Grantham

Occupy Destruction

For a long time I noted that when the tear gas appeared we will have entered a new level of the contraction.  That occurred last year. Check.  With the recent events in Oakland by the Occupy Movement, I believe we've entered the next "tick down" with protestors causing destruction of property.

"Officials surveyed damage Sunday from a volatile Occupy protest that resulted in hundreds of arrests the day before and left the historic City Hall vandalized after demonstrators broke into the building, smashed display cases, cut electrical wires and burned an American flag.  Police placed the number of arrests at about 400 from Saturday's daylong protest — the most contentious since authorities dismantled the Occupy Oakland encampment late last year."
Source: The Chicago Tribune

Another Mega-Implosion

"At the height of his power, Bishop Eddie L. Long would pack tens of thousands of people into his megachurch in the suburbs of Atlanta. With his well-cut suits, passion for Bentleys, and dynamic, accessible style of preaching, he quickly climbed the list of the nation’s most powerful religious leaders. He built his ministry, which stretches to Kenya and other countries, on a strong message of conservative Christianity that included promises of prosperity and attacks on homosexuality. But life inside Bishop Long’s home had been crumbling. And on Sunday, members of his dwindling congregation heard news they had been bracing for. Their charismatic bishop, who in May settled with five young men who accused him of sexual coercion and who has fought a series of other legal battles, said he was temporarily stepping away from the pulpit to try to save his marriage."
Source: NY Times

Some key "takeaway" words from the snippet above: "height of his power", "passion for Bentleys", "most powerful religious leaders", "promises of prosperity", "crumbling", and "charismatic".  Is 2011 the year of the demise of the world's charismatic leaders?  What will 2012 look like?

"Religion will become smaller, 'deeper', and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen 'the peak'. Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010

Not On The Radar

"Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010


"A man clad in black who was obsessed with President Barack Obama pulled his car within view of the White House at night and fired shots from an assault rifle, cracking a window of the first family's living quarters while the president was away, authorities said about their still-developing investigation. Sources tell CBS News Ortega-Hernandez was not on the radar of the Secret Service before Friday's shooting. But investigators believe he may have targeted the White House due to a hatred of President Obama. Businessman Monte McCall, said Ortega-Hernandez compared the president to the 'Antichrist' when they met recently.  Authorities are investigating the man's mental health and say there are indications he believed attacking the White House was part of a personal mission from God, according to two different law enforcement officials who spoke with The Associated Press."

Source: CBS News

 













"Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the 'fall guy' and historically during 'inflection points' those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The 'mob' has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 23, 2008

For years, the "Fox News Mafia" has had us focused on Middle Eastern Muslim men.  I predict that the next "big boogeyman" will be one of us. It proved to be in Norway earlier this year.

"After being apprehended, Breivik was characterized by police officials as being a right-wing extremist and an Islamophobe.  Breivik is described by the newspaper Verdens Gang as considering himself a conservative nationalist.  According to The Australian, Breivik was highly critical of Muslim immigration into Christian societies, is pro-Israel and an admirer of the US Tea Party movement.  Deputy police chief Roger Andresen initially told reporters that 'We have no more information than... what has been found on [his] own websites, which is that it goes towards the right and that it is, so to speak, Christian fundamentalist.'"

Source: Wikipedia

"This is the astonishingly detailed 1,500-page manifesto published on the internet by Anders Behring Breivik on Friday, hours before he carried out his attacks which would leave at least 93 dead. The document, named 2083 - A European Declaration of Independence because he believes the war to rescue Europe from multiculturalism will last another 72 years, is published under the anglicised name 'Andrew Berwick - London, England, 2011'. Chillingly, it features a claim that Breivik is just one of 12 members of a secret right-wing anti-multicultural, anti-Marxist, anti-feminist, anti-Islamic society, the 'Knights Templar' founded in London in April 2002."

Source: Daily Mail

Silvio & JoePa

Many websites report the news and regurgitate the Associated Press. Here my goal is to attempt to connect the dots. So, linking Italy's PM and college football coach Joe Paterno means what?

One of the core themes of this blog is that humans herd and subsequently create cycles of "mass" behavior through history. This can be observed in financial markets, war cycles, politics, fashion, pop culture, and many other categories.

We all know that the recent events at Penn State are a tragedy. What's significant to me is how quickly legendary coach Joe Paterno was terminated. He is guilty in part, but lets face it, he didn't perform the hideous crimes. The conclusion is, during contracting cycles where mass social mood dominates in "fearful and angry", icons fall quickly. The mob moves quickly and topples the ones that once stood on a pedestal. In contrast, during expansion cycles, icons survive great controversies. Bill Clinton's sexual encounter with a young intern might be the best example of all time. Many still believe that he was one of the greatest presidents of all time. Well timed bad behavior.

Jumping across "the pond", Italy's Prime Minister is sacked after serving 17 years in office.  Do the people of Italy really believe that putting a new person in office immediately solves the debt crisis?  No, they are just angry and "lynching" feels good.  Many more leaders and icons will tumble.  Libya might be a great microcosm where one asks the question "ok, now what?".

"Silvio Berlusconi dominated Italy for 17 years with a unique mix of political talent and brazen behavior but in the end the born showman was humiliatingly jeered from office, brought down by pressure from abroad.  Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi formally resigned on Saturday, ending one of the most scandal-plagued eras in recent Italian history amid the jeers of hundreds of protestors gathered in central Rome to celebrate his departure."
Source: Reuters

"The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 30, 2008

Trouble In The Trough

The PIIGS continue to lead the worldwide news stories.  Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain.  Greece, and now Italy, appear to be on the forefront.  It's amazing that the sheeple believe that removing the prime ministers solves the debt problem.  Going to be interesting to watch!

"The PIIGS continue to lead the pack to destruction."
Random Roving, January 1, 2011

Clusters & The Machine

"To deny the reality that large clusters of human beings tend to act with a herd mentality is contrary to all visible evidence. The herd mentality can be observed in the Dot-com bubble, Americans unquestioningly allowing passage of the Patriot Act, the housing bubble, the mass hysteria over the latest iSomething, Black Friday riots at retail stores to obtain the 'hottest' toy or gadget, and the slaves to the latest fashions and trends as directed by the corporate media machine. The masses don’t realize they are being manipulated by the few who understand the power of propaganda."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

The entire article:
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=22946

Here Comes The Tear Gas

The tear gas appears right on schedule.

"Authorities made a series of arrests at Occupy Wall Street protests in California and Georgia on Tuesday with clashes in one city that involved tear gas being used on demonstrators.  Police said they fired the tear gas on protesters in Oakland, California, after the crowd threw paint and other objects at officers."
Source: CNN

You were warned....you say "it can't happen here?":
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/04/onion-peels-in-argentina.html

"One of Robert Prechter's main themes for the downward contraction is the escalation of social unrest. Along with this comes a power struggle between the government and the people. As Americans, what should we prepare for?"
Random Roving, December 12, 2008

Angry Birds

"We're in an Angry Birds kind of world, unfortunately.  One of the reasons for this is that too many people are focusing on what isn't working and less on what is.  Instead of promoting solutions, there seems to be a 'tear it down' atmostphere at every level of society."
Cal Thomas, Conservative Columnist
Source: CNN

"As social mood becomes more positive people become more confident trusting and content. They feel little need to prepare a defensive or offensive force. As social mood becomes more negative, people become more fearful, distrusting, and angry. They are impelled to prepare to defend themselves or attack an enemy."

Elliott Wave Theorist, 1999

German Vampires

"'We are not lazy; it's the Germans, they want to take our blood,' said Eleftherios Zarkados (Greek citizen)."

Source: CNN

"Organizations like the European Union are in the process of 'fragmenting'. During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel 'the pain', their partners in the EU will continue to ask 'why are we being dragged down by them?'."

Random Roving, March 30, 2010

Riggin' & Exiting

“'I don’t think it’s a time to make money -- this is a time to rig for survival,' said Charles Stevenson, 64, president of hedge fund Navigator Group Inc. and head of the co-op board at 740 Park Ave. The building, home to Blackstone Group LP Chairman Stephen Schwarzman and CIT Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer John Thain, was among those picketed by protesters yesterday. 'The future is not going to be like a past we knew,' he said. 'There’s no exit from this morass.'"

Source: Bloomberg

From Pepper to Teargas?

Does pepper spray precede teargas?  It appears that these minimum wage earning security guards had their hands full at the Smithsonian.



"We have a generation of kids waking up to the reality that their parents have not only indebted them for life, but also destroyed their current job market and prospects. Kent State might end up looking like a mild one when this one peaks.  Cutting off cell phones and internet access will really get these kids fired up! 'I want my MTV!'"
Random Roving, December 12, 2009

"One of Robert Prechter's main themes for the downward contraction is the escalation of social unrest. Along with this comes a power struggle between the government and the people.  As Americans, what should we prepare for?"
Random Roving, December 12, 2008

Competition For 3rd Place Begins

"The next four years will be very challenging on all fronts. As I've stated before, the economic cycle is must stronger than a political party or individual politicians. The psychology of the masses will drive the direction. I believe that the Democrats will be navigating the ship through major rogue waves. At the end of that process, the party will be in shambles. At that point, the masses will be disenchanted with both parties. At 'the bottom', there will be a third party that finally gains some steam and becomes a viable competitor. That party will probably be somewhere in the middle."
Random Roving, November 8, 2008

"The coalition of thousands of anti- Wall Street protesters in New York and cities across the U.S. has the potential to grow into the 'Tea Party of the Left,' said Brayden King, who’s written on social and political movements at Northwestern University."
Source: Bloomberg

This will be fun to watch. Red vs Blue Tea Parties!

And The Next Hoffa Will Be?



Jimmy Riddle Hoffa

"The cavalry arrived in Lower Manhattan. Representatives from no fewer than 15 of the country's largest labor unions joined the Occupy Wall Street protesters for a mass rally and march today in New York City."

Source: ABC



"The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'."

Random Roving, November 24, 2009

Who will be the "Hoffa" of this era?

The Contracting Mega-Church

"The streets that were once choked with traffic are now bare. The church's sprawling parking lot is half full. Inside the stylish sanctuary, ushers sway to choir music in front of empty seats.  On a typical Sunday morning, New Birth Missionary Church in suburban Atlanta would be hopping. But on a recent Sunday, the sprawling church complex looked half-deserted and the mood seemed flat.  Six months after a sex scandal involving New Birth's senior pastor, Bishop Eddie Long, became public, the megachurch no longer packs them in. Yet there are loyalists, like C.D. Dixon, who have not joined the exodus."
Source: CNN

"The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen 'the peak'. Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals."
Random Roving, "Happy New Year 2010 is Here", January 1, 2010 

A Fourth Turning Update

"The storyline promulgated by the mainstream linear thinking opinion leaders is the economy is recovering, the banking system is sound, the stock market is booming, buying a house is a great investment, inflation is below 2%,  jobs are being created, and consumers have regained their confidence and spending power. This message is hammered home on a daily basis by the corporate run mainstream media. It is patently false and the thinking members of the American public know it. The economic condition of the country is rapidly deteriorating. While politicians posture and lie to the citizens, the fissures in our financial system grow wider. As of today, regeneracy and unification behind one common national purpose seems light years away. Strauss & Howe speculated in 1997 about potential events that could spur events during the next Fourth Turning.The event necessary to cause a regeneracy in this country will need to be on an epic scale. Based upon a review of the foreseeable issues confronting our society it is clear to me that a worse financial implosion will strike before the 2012 presidential election. It may be triggered by a debt ceiling confrontation, the ending of QE2, a panic out of the USD, hyperinflation, a surge in oil prices, or some combination of these possibilities. The ensuing collapse of the stock and bond markets will remove the last vestiges of trust in the existing financial system and the government bureaucrats who have taken taxpayer dollars and funneled them to these Wall Street oligarchs."
James Quinn, "The Burning Platform"

A must read article:
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=14483

The 3 C's

"The circumstances that got us here will not lead us out. Watchwords for the future: Community, cooperation & co-dependance at a local level."
The Automatic Earth
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/