Friday, January 1, 2010

Happy New Year!! 2010 is Here.

It's my favorite time of the year to make predictions. I'm still sticking with all of my prior predictions. I'm interested in the "20-something" year cycles, so one year doesn't really make much of a difference.

"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08
This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come.

All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind.

I'm going to comment on my January 1, 2008 predictions one by one:

· Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - WRONG. Oil bottomed at $38/barrel. I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either.

· Gold: $1500/ou before $500/ou - I believe that $1500 is looking good.

· Dow Jones Ind. Avg.: 5000 before 15000 - We're currently in the middle. It still could be time to take the money and run.

· Next ten years will be the toughest we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Next twenty much tougher than last twenty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Next fifty much tougher than last fifty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Military draft: within ten years, probably 5 - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season - CORRECT! But I never would have predicted a great season at the helm of the Vikings.

· Paris Hilton’s career tanks - Who really cares. It was a joke anyway.

· Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!!

"I believe that 2009 will be a very challenging year. I don't agree with the gurus that forecast a recession end by the third quarter of next year. Remember that those gurus just informed you that we've been in a recession for the past year. So much for proactive forecasting and timely notification. I think that we're in for a very long haul. A 26 year party requires a long hangover." Random Roving - 12/31/08

I chronicled the 26 year party in a little more detail.

I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking.

My additional predictions for 2010 are:

-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm".

-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper......

-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction".

-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!"

-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch.

-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.

-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware.

-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over.

-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left?

"I don’t think it matters who the next president is. I know that 99% of you will disagree with this statement. I believe that he will be doomed by the economic cycle. The cycle is much greater than a president or a political party. The next president will time it horribly like Carter did, but much worse. He will be the fall guy. He will be worn down by the Middle East like LBJ was with Vietnam. Hopefully he won’t receive the fate of JFK. Yes, that sounds pessimistic, but history is very repetitive." Random Roving - 11/4/08 Election Day

"Was Jimmy Carter really that bad of a president or did he time his economic cycle poorly? Was Bill Clinton really that good of a president or did he time his presidency extremely well? I believe that one was cursed and the other blessed from the “get go”. The next president, whoever he is, is doomed and will likely parallel Carter, JFK, or LBJ. Hopefully for him it will only be as bad as Carter." 6-30-08

-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!".

-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country.

-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece.

-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert.

-The downward trend in social mood will present some very positive developments (yeah! finally!):

---families will move geographically and emotionally closer

---materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness.

---gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels.

---religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch.

I'm sticking with my same recommendations from last year. They still are valid and wise.
My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

"As we move into a new year, the stock market's technically weak rally and the repercussions of the burst real estate will follow along. So stay flexible with your investment strategy because we could be in for another hard fall." Claus Vogt - Weiss Research Inc.

I continue to get feedback that this blog focuses too much on negative topics. I'm not sure if I feel more like Paul Revere or the weatherman. No one calls the weatherman a pessimist when he predicts that a hurricane will hit land in five days. They take his/her advice, prepare, and head to higher ground. Don't shoot the optimistic messenger! He's only trying to "fire a warning shot".

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