The Evolution Towards "Apart"

Another example that during a declining mass social mood, cooperation declines in perfect alignment.

"Google Inc, the world's biggest search engine, has been in a two-month standoff with Beijing over restrictions on the Internet and Google's claims that it and other companies were hit by hacking from within China. The company's chief executive, Eric Schmidt, said last week he hoped to announce soon an outcome from talks with Chinese officials on offering an uncensored search engine in that country of 384 million Internet users. Many experts have doubted China's ruling Communist Party would compromise on censorship, and on the weekend the Financial Times reported the talks had reached an impasse and Google was "99.9 percent" certain to shut its Chinese search engine, Google.cn. "Our forecast has always remained firm that once Google announced it would not accept censorship, then it was nearly impossible to imagine a scenario either where Google didn't act on that or the government accepted their position," Mark Natkin, managing director of Marbridge Consulting, told Reuters. Marbridge Consulting is a Beijing-based company that advises on China's IT and telecommunications sectors." Source: Reuters


My buddy, Bubbalew, continues to profess that during these difficult times, the "one world government" is going to take over. I believe that the opposite is ALREADY occurring. We are moving apart. Organizations like the European Union are in the process of "fragmenting". During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel "the pain", their partners in the EU will continue to ask "why are we being dragged down by them?". In the US, you might hear similar rumblings with respect to states like California and Michigan. As stated prior, look for prior "cat fights" to reignite. I still find N. Ireland as an interesting one to watch due to the "Christian vs Christian" aspect of it.

Stay tuned.

Happy New Year!! 2010 is Here.

It's my favorite time of the year to make predictions. I'm still sticking with all of my prior predictions. I'm interested in the "20-something" year cycles, so one year doesn't really make much of a difference.

"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08
This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come.

All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind.

I'm going to comment on my January 1, 2008 predictions one by one:

· Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - WRONG. Oil bottomed at $38/barrel. I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either.

· Gold: $1500/ou before $500/ou - I believe that $1500 is looking good.

· Dow Jones Ind. Avg.: 5000 before 15000 - We're currently in the middle. It still could be time to take the money and run.

· Next ten years will be the toughest we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Next twenty much tougher than last twenty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Next fifty much tougher than last fifty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Military draft: within ten years, probably 5 - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season - CORRECT! But I never would have predicted a great season at the helm of the Vikings.

· Paris Hilton’s career tanks - Who really cares. It was a joke anyway.

· Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!!

"I believe that 2009 will be a very challenging year. I don't agree with the gurus that forecast a recession end by the third quarter of next year. Remember that those gurus just informed you that we've been in a recession for the past year. So much for proactive forecasting and timely notification. I think that we're in for a very long haul. A 26 year party requires a long hangover." Random Roving - 12/31/08

I chronicled the 26 year party in a little more detail.

I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking.

My additional predictions for 2010 are:

-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm".

-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper......

-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction".

-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!"

-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch.

-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.

-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware.

-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over.

-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left?

"I don’t think it matters who the next president is. I know that 99% of you will disagree with this statement. I believe that he will be doomed by the economic cycle. The cycle is much greater than a president or a political party. The next president will time it horribly like Carter did, but much worse. He will be the fall guy. He will be worn down by the Middle East like LBJ was with Vietnam. Hopefully he won’t receive the fate of JFK. Yes, that sounds pessimistic, but history is very repetitive." Random Roving - 11/4/08 Election Day

"Was Jimmy Carter really that bad of a president or did he time his economic cycle poorly? Was Bill Clinton really that good of a president or did he time his presidency extremely well? I believe that one was cursed and the other blessed from the “get go”. The next president, whoever he is, is doomed and will likely parallel Carter, JFK, or LBJ. Hopefully for him it will only be as bad as Carter." 6-30-08

-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!".

-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country.

-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece.

-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert.

-The downward trend in social mood will present some very positive developments (yeah! finally!):

---families will move geographically and emotionally closer

---materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness.

---gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels.

---religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch.

I'm sticking with my same recommendations from last year. They still are valid and wise.
My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

"As we move into a new year, the stock market's technically weak rally and the repercussions of the burst real estate will follow along. So stay flexible with your investment strategy because we could be in for another hard fall." Claus Vogt - Weiss Research Inc.

I continue to get feedback that this blog focuses too much on negative topics. I'm not sure if I feel more like Paul Revere or the weatherman. No one calls the weatherman a pessimist when he predicts that a hurricane will hit land in five days. They take his/her advice, prepare, and head to higher ground. Don't shoot the optimistic messenger! He's only trying to "fire a warning shot".

Northern Ireland Segment on GMA

A nice two minute segment on Northern Ireland from Good Morning America that aligns well with my recent post on the situation. The gentlemen/author at the end of the clip makes some very important statements.

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7055053

DJIA/Gold Ratio: A Frame of Reference For Northern Ireland

This is the fifth post focusing on the DJIA/Gold Ratio. The ratio provides an interesting "frame of reference" and backdrop for events that occur through time. I recently made a post regarding the renewed conflict in Northern Ireland. One aspect of conflict is the "tit for tat" process. It's a "closed loop" with no terminating point. The "tat" occurred yesterday in Northern Ireland.

Gunmen kill a police officer in Northern Ireland
By John F. Burns and Alan Cowell Herald Tribune
Published: March 10, 2009
Two days after two British soldiers were shot and killed in Northern Ireland, gunmen opened fire and killed a police officer late Monday, news reports said, reinforcing a challenge to the authorities to maintain a mood of reconciliation underpinning a still-uncertain peace.
The killing came as the British prime minister, Gordon Brown, visited Northern Ireland to insist that the protracted peace effort beginning with the Good Friday agreement in 1998 could not be reversed, despite the death of two soldiers outside a British Army base in Antrim on Saturday. The soldiers were shot hours before they were set to depart for Afghanistan.

The Northern Ireland conflict provides an interesting opportunity to align it with the frame of reference of the economic cycle that I have presented in the past (DJIA/Gold Ratio). The theory is that during the expansion phase of the economic cycle we predominantly have peace. Most economies are growing, people are prospering, and happiness is the dominant mood. In contrast, during the contraction phase, the masses quickly and collectively become fearful and angry. This "shift in mood" leads to conflict. One the the commencement points is usually a "rekindled old fire". Northern Ireland fits the description very well. The chart below presents the model with the DJIA/Gold Ratio serving as the metric.

Now lets take some key events from Northern Ireland over the past 28 years and see how they align with the ratio through time. During the 80's and 90's many attempts were made for peace in Northern Ireland. This culminated in the signing of the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement that officially called a ceasefire in 1998. It's important to note that this agreement is reached practically at the peak of the DJIA/Gold Ratio. Unfortunately, it didn't take long for more terrorist events to occur. In August, 1998 An explosion in Omagh kills twenty-eight. The Real IRA, an anti-Agreement splinter group of the Provisional IRA, claims responsibility. Since the Belfast Agreement, a general decline in peace has occurred. The events of the past week indicate that more trouble could lie ahead. If one believes that mass social mood aligns with the economic cycle, than the chart and the forecasted trend might indicate more significant conflict lies ahead.