Saturday, December 19, 2009

The Man Behind The Curtain

When will we find out who the real wizard is? My favorite quotes from the clip.
"Do you presume to criticize the great Oz? You ungrateful creatures. Think yourselves lucky that I'm giving you audience tomorrow instead of twenty years from now!" The Wizard of Oz

"Who are you?" Dorothy

"No my dear. I'm a very good man, just a very bad wizard." The Wizard of Oz

I envision Bernanke using this in his resignation speech some day. "No my dear. I'm a very good man, just a very bad Federal Reserve Chairman".


Friday, December 18, 2009

Climate of Hate

The TimesOnline reports that the Italian Prime Minister was the recipient of a flying cathedral:

"Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, left hospital today after spending a fourth night under observation after an assailant broke his nose with a model of the Milan cathedral. Massimo Tartaglia, 42, an electronics engineer with mental problems, threw a heavy souvenir statuette of the Duomo at Mr Berlusconi's face, leaving him with a fractured nose and two broken teeth. He later apologised to Mr Berlusconi by letter but told police the controversial populist Prime Minister was 'ruining Italy'. Italian newspapers today devoted their front pages to a parcel bomb planted in an underground corridor at Bocconi business university in Milan which was detonated by a timer in the early hours of yesterday morning. It contained two kilos of dynamite but had only "partially" exploded, police said. A group calling itself "The Informal Anarchist Federation" claimed responsibility. The same group also sent a parcel bomb to an immigration office at Gorizia on the Italian-Slovenian border. It exploded but caused no injuries. 'After the statuette, the dynamite' said Il Giornale, the newspaper owned by Mr Berlusconi's brother Paolo, adding 'here come the bombs'. It claimed that the parcel bombs, like Mr Tartaglia's attack, were 'the fruit of a climate of hate' against Mr Berlusconi created by the Left."

The recent "hoopla" over the two yahoos that crashed the party at the White House might have some real underlying meaning. Maybe the "elephant in the room" is that everyone feels that in this "climate of hate", our president might be at risk.

The mob continues to get angrier. Xenophobia and racism are climbing. I've had a handful of people state this week "did you notice that Tiger didn't like the black girls?". No, the thought hadn't occurred to me. I've concluded that he likes barmaids.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Person of The Year

It wasn't surprising to see Time Magazine name Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, to be their "Person of The Year". The award was bestoyed on him "Because of his monumental influence on the world’s most important economy". I do agree that he has monumental influence on the entire world economy. I will predict that this will be the "last high point" in Mr. Bernanke's career. As I stated in my post September 30, 2008, Mr. Bernanke will ultimately be everyone's "fall guy". When hyperinflation kicks into high gear, he will be the man that takes the blame. The great maestro, Alan Greenspan, will be long gone when the implosion occurs.

My vote for Person of The Year is Elin Nordegren, the now famous wife of Tiger Woods. In my Snake Charmers post back in May, I stated then "I have to ask today, when are one of these political wives going to stand up for women and rip the eyeballs out of one of these snakes at the press conference?". Well, Ms. Nordegren didn't need to be a politicians wife to stand up for all women across the world. She didn't go for the eyeballs with her fingernails either, she chose a 3 iron and opened a can of "whoopass" on Tiger's face. I applaud her actions. I'm not supporting domestic violence, but she did what so many women should have done before....take a strong stand against abuse and immoral behavior. I believe that her statement will standout for years to come. Rumors state that she plans to divorce Tiger. I hope that she does for the same reasons. You don't deserve a good wife when you don't respect her. Good luck to Ms. Nordegren and hopefully many women will be inspired to take back control of their life.

My runnerup nomination goes to Jenny Sanford, South Carolina's first lady, for telling her husband Governer Sanford to enjoy your life with your "soulmate". She filed for divorce this week.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The Vicious Cycle

My buddy JD turned me onto Thomas Friedman's book, "Hot, Flat, and Crowded". This is a great excerpt:

"At its core, the China-America growth engine worked like this: We in America built more and more stores, to sell more and more stuff, made in more and more Chinese factories, powered by more and more coal, and all those sales produced more dollars, which China used to buy more and more U.S. Treasury Bills, which allowed the Federal Reserve to extend more and more easy credit to more and more banks, consumers, and businesses so that more and more Americans could purchase more and more homes, and all those sales drove home prices higher and higher, which made more and more Americans feel like they had more and more money to buy more and more stuff made in more and more Chinese factories powered by more and more coal, which earned China more and more dollars to buy more and more T-bills to be recirculated back to America to create more and more credit so more and more people could build more and more stores and buy more and more homes . . .This relationship, so critical in inflating the post–Cold War credit bubble, was so intimate that when Americans suddenly stopped buying and building in the fall of 2008, thousands of Chinese factories went dark and whole Chinese villages found themselves unemployed."

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The Inflationary Boiling Frog

"The boiling frog story states that a frog can be boiled alive if the water is heated slowly enough — it is said that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will never jump out. The story is generally told in a figurative context, with the upshot being that people should make themselves aware of gradual change lest they suffer a catastrophic loss." Source: Wikipedia

Inflation can sometimes be analagous to the "boiling frog". It gradually creeps in and slowly climbs. The term inflation is often debated. I align with the Austrian economic definition that inflation is the "expansion of credit". Deflation, the opposite, would be the contraction of credit. Traditional economic theory would state that inflation is the rising of prices and deflation would be the opposite. Austrian inflation can definitely lead to the rise in prices.
Our credit expansion since 1982 resulted in a significant rising in prices....homes, cars, food, fuel, stocks.... The Federal Reserve continues to expand credit at record levels. Prices could be heading to a new level, hyperinflation. I just received my medical insurance renewal that included a 20% increase from last year...... Are we that boiling frog!




Monday, December 14, 2009

Drinking The Poison

Bloomberg reports:
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is prescribing 'poison' to the US economy by keeping interest rates near zero and fueling a wave of speculative capital that may cause the next global crisis, former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy Xie said. Bernanke is making decisions based on 'marginal considerations' that will help short-term growth and employment, instead of focusing on the 'soundness of the system,' Xie wrote in an e-mailed note. The next worldwide crisis will probably strike in 2012, driven by inflation as the low cost of borrowing spurs increases in asset prices, he said. 'There is a Chinese saying that one could quench the thirst by drinking poison,' said Xie, who predicted in September 2006 that the US economy would fall into a recession in 2008. 'Bernanke seems to be prescribing exactly this to the US economy. The slower Bernanke raises interest rates, the bigger the next crisis.' "

Back to The Economics of A Twelve Year Old

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Total Inebriation

"On at least one level, one can blame the economists and efficient market theorists. These academic types are like bartenders who deny the existence of alcoholics. 'Rational economic man' is always and everywhere sober, these pointy-headed idiots say. And thus, if all market participants are sober, public drunkenness cannot exist in the marketplace... and thus all prices put forth by the market are rationally and soberly justified.
This moronic assertion, bolstered by layers of Ivy League credibility, encourages investors to ignore signs of mania (just as the barfly waves off friendly hints that perhaps he should call it a night). As the evening wears on, the drink becomes more and more intoxicating... but no one admits to being tipsy, let alone drunk as a skunk. Total inebriation ensues."

Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group - 12/2/09

Drunk analogies must be getting popular:
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/10/last-call-for-alcohol.html