Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Day Reflection - 2012

Well I'm still trying to end my "random roving hiatus".  Just too much going on in my real world I guess.  Election Day is just too tempting to hold back.

My thoughts on the candidates.  I didn't vote for Obama in 2008 because I believed that he had zero experience to hold the most powerful position in the world.  Today I won't vote for him because "3 plus" years is still not enough real world experience especially considering the task at hand.  Mr. Romney probably has the best presidential resume that I've ever seen.  It has real world business experience, government experience, and significant experience relating to investment capital.  For the times at hand, this resume is a perfect fit.  In my mind, it was amazing to see his Bain Capital experience get attacked so strongly by The Left.  We need a venture capital mentality to sort through these financial rogue waves.  Here comes the "but".  But, Mr. Romney, if elected, would not do anything different from Obama and Bush.  The Bush and Obama presidencies in my mind have been identical. Their two main underlying themes have been "print money" and "occupy oil producing nations".  I don't see Mr. Romney doing anything different.  Continuing those two operations has massive negative consequences for our country.  Forty years of "excessive credit" has left us in quite a quandary.  Yes, forty years.  The Gipper opened up the "federal credit card" and every president has used it well.  We're now experiencing exponential growth of our debt which makes the current "man in charge" appear to be the most guilty.  The curve is only steepening and will continue to do so.  So, with that said, I'll say it again, it doesn't matter who the next president is.  The cycle will once again make it's selection.  "Fear and anger" are still the dominant emotions of the masses around the world.  It is my belief that fear and anger will benefit President Obama the most which will lead to a very narrow victory.  Many citizens still have some bad feelings about Bush and Cheney.  Fear will drive many to vote for Obama because he is a "known quantity".  Fear of what Romney might do is enough for some to vote Obama.  Yes, many are angry about the economy, but I don't think that most blame it on the current president.  They might even blame Bush and vote Democrat for that reason.

For the same reasons as stated below in my 2008 rant, I plan to vote for a third party candidate.  I'll either write in Ron Paul or vote Libertarian with Gary Johnson.  Now more than ever it is important to send a message that a third party is needed.  These two candidates spent $2 billion on their campaigns.  They were the only two invited to the debates.  We have a "machine" that's broken.  Both parties have exhausted their platforms.  Both parties spend all of their time and money trashing the other instead of fostering new ideas.  This election will be another stepping stone towards third party strength in 2016.  That's why my vote is not wasted. Change takes time.  Endorsing a bad system only exacerbates it.

The Republicans spent three years looking for a birth certificate instead of a candidate.  Once again, they've ended up with someone they don't care for.  How does that happen?  In 2008 they ended up with an old "washed up" politician and paired him with a numskull.  In this election, the party, controlled by the Evangelicals and the Fox News Mafia, ends up with a Mormon as candidate.  Fox News can't discuss this, but all of the "self proclaimed born agains" that I know believe that Mormonism is a cult.  Many of those individuals probably won't vote because of their religious belief dominating their decision.  That might be the deciding factor in the election.

To the Democrats, I once again say, "be careful what you wish for".  The past four years will be nothing compared to the next four.  That exponential curve is only steepening.  Massive inflation, especially of food and energy, will send the world into further chaos.  We've already seen this play out in "Phase I".  Like we always do, we gave this event a cute name for the media to spout and for the sheeple to regurgitate......the Arab Spring.  Of course, Fox News' interpretation of the event was that all of these countries want to be the United States.  "Phase II" will "up the ante".  In this next term, I believe that "fear and anger" will greatly escalate and the next president will pay dearly.  Calling him the "fall guy" might not even be a strong enough description.  The next vice president could very well be the next LBJ.

As in past years, I hope and pray for the best.  I go into this election day with continuing concerns that our populace is uninformed, disinterested, and in utter denial about the realities ahead.  Another large storm just devastated our shores and nobody was prepared.  They were too busy watching those millionaires on "Jersey Shore" versus preparing for a storm that was approaching the Jersey shore.  Good luck to all.  I hope that your boy wins and that you can endure the next four years with him.  Today might present a good opportunity to write on paper why you voted for your candidate.  It might make for interesting reading in the years ahead.

My post from election day 2008.  I've not changed my view on anything:
"The day has finally come. Two years and $2.5 billion later, we finally have out opportunity to cast our ballot. It seems that we've been in this process for ever! The experts predict that we will have a record turnout. Based on the timing in the economic cycle, that make a lot of sense. No matter the outcome, today proves to be historic.

Back in June at our annual beach trip, I predicted that Obama would win by 14%. That prediction was unanimously scoffed at and all stated that it will be a "photo finish" like Bush/Gore. My prediction then and now is that Obama will win by a landslide. I don't believe this because I think that he's the dominating candidate or necessarily the best candidate. I believe this because of the timing of the election with the economic cycle. As we entered the new millennium and the beginning of the "contraction" phase of the cycle, Bush took office. His approval ratings have consistently slid down to an all time low. In contractions, the mob becomes angry and fearful. Kings and presidents are thrown out of power during the contractions. The Republican party will suffer greatly during this election due to timing. The imperialistic occupation of Iraq has been cited as the explanation for the down trend in ratings, but ironically the conflict also aligns with the behavior "of the crowd" during the contraction phase.

The Obama landslide victory will reflect the significant shift in mass social mood from "happy and greedy" to "angry and fearful". The anger is focused on the Bush administration, yet the fear appears to be focused on the policies of a potential Obama administration. I believe that the anger will overpower the fear. When we're happy and greedy, we forgive a president for having sex with an intern in our country's White House. When we're happy and greedy, we typically re-elect the incumbent. John McCain is considered the incumbent. George Bush Sr. knows what happens when the tide shifts slightly off kilter. He still hasn't forgiven Greenspan for not printing more money to artificially stimulate the economy prior to his re-election bid. Greenspan made up for it during W's term.

Most concerning to me during this process, and mainly during the past six weeks, is the content of emails that I've received from my Republican friends. The fear mongering has been staggering. The most shocking have been those wrapping the election decision under the veil of Christianity. I believe that Jesus loves both candidates. The Republican party made the conscious decision to "go negative" instead of telling us why McCain was the right choice. During the Republican convention, all I heard were two things: "Vietnam POW" and "maverick".

The interesting question to ask on election day is: Should one vote for what they believe is best for themselves or for their country? For me personally, being a white upper middle class geologist in the petroleum industry, most would agree that I should vote Republican. The Republican Party states that they will keep my taxes low, keep illegal aliens from mowing my lawn, and they want to drill, drill, drill. Sounds like a simple decision. I actually believe that one should vote for what's best for the country as a whole. I firmly believe that one should assess the picture on a global scale. I also believe the "the chain is only as strong as the weakest link". If our "weakest link" gets weaker, it will affect all of us. So who is the best candidate for the country as a whole?

I don’t think it matters who the next president is. I know that 99% of you will disagree with this statement. I believe that he will be doomed by the economic cycle. The cycle is much greater than a president or a political party. The next president will time it horribly like Carter did, but much worse. He will be the fall guy. He will be worn down by the Middle East like LBJ was with Vietnam. Hopefully he won’t receive the fate of JFK. Yes, that sounds pessimistic, but history is very repetitive. Although Obama and Palin don’t have enough experience, especially for dealing with the rogue waves that lie ahead, I believe that both have great potential for a future moment in time. Obama has brought excitement and hope to the masses. I don’t ever recall seeing a 100,000 person rally for a presidential candidate. Palin has brought a freshness to the process and great hopes for future female candidates. McCain and Biden are career professional politicians and that’s not what the country needs. Bush’s term aligned with the “beginning of the end of the great expansion” and McCain can’t shake the Bush connection. I’m still trying to figure out if Obama is a Christian, Muslim, Arab, Kenyan, or terrorist?!?!

This morning I voted for Ron Paul as a "write in". I believe that our two parties are stuck in a state of significant paralysis. The rigidness and extreme perspectives are at a standoff. When this cycle finds a bottom in the coming years, it might be the opportunity for a third party to rise in power and stature. My vote can be easily cast as a wasted vote, but I truly believe that out of all of the candidates and through the entire process, Ron Paul was the only candidate that conveyed an honest and accurate understanding of the situation along with providing real, concrete solutions. He understands that a fiat system will ultimately come to a catastrophic ending. Someone in charge has to have a plan for this. Of course, I hope that I’m wrong. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed, and have been a full participant in theSupersize Me Era.

It's interesting to observe politics on the home front. My 14 year old son wants Obama, 12 year old daughter McCain, and my wife still was rooting for Hillary. How's that for diversity."


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