Not On The Radar

"Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010


"A man clad in black who was obsessed with President Barack Obama pulled his car within view of the White House at night and fired shots from an assault rifle, cracking a window of the first family's living quarters while the president was away, authorities said about their still-developing investigation. Sources tell CBS News Ortega-Hernandez was not on the radar of the Secret Service before Friday's shooting. But investigators believe he may have targeted the White House due to a hatred of President Obama. Businessman Monte McCall, said Ortega-Hernandez compared the president to the 'Antichrist' when they met recently.  Authorities are investigating the man's mental health and say there are indications he believed attacking the White House was part of a personal mission from God, according to two different law enforcement officials who spoke with The Associated Press."

Source: CBS News

 













"Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the 'fall guy' and historically during 'inflection points' those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The 'mob' has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 23, 2008

For years, the "Fox News Mafia" has had us focused on Middle Eastern Muslim men.  I predict that the next "big boogeyman" will be one of us. It proved to be in Norway earlier this year.

"After being apprehended, Breivik was characterized by police officials as being a right-wing extremist and an Islamophobe.  Breivik is described by the newspaper Verdens Gang as considering himself a conservative nationalist.  According to The Australian, Breivik was highly critical of Muslim immigration into Christian societies, is pro-Israel and an admirer of the US Tea Party movement.  Deputy police chief Roger Andresen initially told reporters that 'We have no more information than... what has been found on [his] own websites, which is that it goes towards the right and that it is, so to speak, Christian fundamentalist.'"

Source: Wikipedia

"This is the astonishingly detailed 1,500-page manifesto published on the internet by Anders Behring Breivik on Friday, hours before he carried out his attacks which would leave at least 93 dead. The document, named 2083 - A European Declaration of Independence because he believes the war to rescue Europe from multiculturalism will last another 72 years, is published under the anglicised name 'Andrew Berwick - London, England, 2011'. Chillingly, it features a claim that Breivik is just one of 12 members of a secret right-wing anti-multicultural, anti-Marxist, anti-feminist, anti-Islamic society, the 'Knights Templar' founded in London in April 2002."

Source: Daily Mail

Osama, Obama, and Slap Ya Mama

Well The Boogeyman is dead....or is he?  Big bad Obama knocked off big bad Osama.  And so these modern day "Crusades" continue on.  We might have just entered the next era.  So I assume our troops are heading home...right?

It will be fun to watch the battle for the credit.  It might resemble when Reagan took office and witnessed the release of the Iranian hostages.  Bring on 2012!

And yes, try that "Slap Ya Mama" seasoning for your next crawdaddy boil...great stuff!  I needed a third rhyme!

Happy New Year! 2011 is here

As I've said for the past few years on this blog, this is one of my favorite days of the year. It's a great time for reflection, and spending some time thinking about the future.  As always, I like to review my predictions from the prior year, critique them, and present a few more. As stated in the past, I'm no expert, but the cycles continue to progess as they have in the past.

One year ago for Christmas, I sent 22 copies of Strauss & Howe's book, "The Fourth Turning" as Christmas gifts to my closest friends and family.  Unfortunately, maybe two of the recipients actually read the book.  Most found it too gloomy and depressing. I will present several excerpts over the coming months.  The book published in 1997 has been right on the mark with it's forecasts and predictions.

Here are my predictions from 1/1/10 and my comments:
-"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08  This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come.  CORRECT. This was an original from 1/1/08 and still keeps on proving correct. I'll repredict the same for 2011.  Worldwide money printing appears to continue and can only raise prices and destroy currencies.  Watch for the point when interest rates start to tick back up.  Congrats to my buddy, Magoo, who bought his first Krugerrand in 2010. Buy some more in 2011.

-Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either.  INCORRECT/CORRECT. Oil hovered around $70/barrel for most of the year.  I believe that prices will average over $100/barrell for 2011.

-All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind.  STILL IN PROGRESS.  Three of the four potential outcomes still appear to be possibilities. The probability of the Obama administration "wowing" us in the next two years is very unlikely in my mind.  I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind.  From an Austrian economic definition, we are already deflating due to the contracting money supply.  This one is the $64,000 question.

-Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!!  CORRECT!!!  It will be hard to top this one.


-I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking.  STILL IN PROGRESS.  It appears that the "linears" are still in the majority while the cycle vibrates on.
 
-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm".  CORRECT.  Not only has the Fed printing like mad, but the rest of the world is following suit.  "We've only just begun."  The Carpenters
 
-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper......  CORRECT.  What a year for gold, silver, and corn!
 
-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction".  STILL IN PROGRESS.  Derivatives will continue to unwind.  They blamed the 2008 massacre on mortgages, but at the core was a derivative gambling casino.  Much more to come.
 
-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!"  CORRECT.  Not a good time for a Greece or UK trip.  You might catch a rock in the head.
 
-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch.  CORRECT. I don't think that anyone would argue about this one.  The Schiff Senate Race turned out to be a dud though.  In due time!
 
-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.
CORRECT. The mob is angrier than ever.  The angry white American bible carrying man hasn't made his statement yet.
 
-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware.  CORRECT/INCORRECT.  The ratings fall is dead on, but a few incumbents survived.  Not for long though.  2012 will be a political bloodbath.
 
-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over.  CORRECT. This will continue to play out for 25 years.
 
-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left?  CORRECT.  Much more to come at a higher level.  Tighten up the Secret Service.
 
-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!".  CORRECT.  The anti-Muslim sentiment is frightening.  Propaganda and the Fox News Patriots will keep this one on the front burner.  You can't continue country occupation and seizing resources without some "fear factor" driving it.  Where's Osama???
 
-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country.  CORRECT.  If you disagree, turn on Fox News.
 
-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece.  CORRECT. My list was way too short.  The PIIGS continue to lead the pack to destruction.


-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert.  CORRECT.  These will be great bellwethers to watch.

-Families will move geographically and emotionally closer.  IN PROGRESS.  This will occur over the next 10-15 years.  See "The Fourth Turning".

-Materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness.  IN PROGRESS. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. See "The Fourth Turning".  The trend toward "simplifying" is in progress.

-Gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels.  YET TO COMMENCE. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. Gluttony still appears to be the "American Way".

-Religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch.  IN PROGRESS.  Ted Haggard kicked off the trend and Robert Schuller was the next major pillar to fall.  When will Joel Osteen's basketball palace collapse?

Well that's a critique of my 2010 predictions.  Now, what about 2011??  I believe that my perspective has not waivered.  The cycle continues on so these developments will only deepen and intensify.  The worldwide manipulation of the financial system will have grave consequences.  We've stolen from the next two generations and I'm not sure if they will ever forgive us.  I see the "angry and fear" cycle heading up to the next level in preparation for a frightening 2012.  The Mayan Calendar fear will make Y2K look miniscule.  It's easy to stampede a herd.  Just scare the leaders and the rest will follow.  Also keep an eye on the continued toppling of cultural icons.  Tiger Woods, Brett Favre, and John Edwards are just the beginning.  We build them up during the "up cycle" and tear them down during the "down cycle".  Will the cycling doping scandal take Lance Armstrong down?  Will Hannah Montana take another bong hit??  The "live" CNN camera feed of the BP oil spill was very symbolic.  The magnifying glasses are turned on to "high power".  Celebrities, politicians, and corporate CEO's beware.

I'm sticking with my same recommendations from 2009 and 2010. They still are valid and wise.


My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

May 2011 be your year!

Wonderful Thing

It's official.  The QE2 has left the port and so far she's sailing with a full passenger list. Captain Bernanke is at the helm!  Steward Obama is hoping that the passengers are hungry!

I had the pleasure of experiencing QE2 live last night as I was buying a car.  When I finally made it to the finance office to cut the check, the dealership employee was begging me to not pay cash.  "Mr. Barrell, do you realize how cheap credit is right now?  You'll never find cheaper money."  And I replied, "I know, but debt is not a good thing anymore."  He looked at me with great confusion.  The Kool Aid party resumes and many will be suckered in to adding more to their debt load.  Haven't we just decided to add "fuel to the fire"?  If your house is burning, you don't soak it in more kerosen do you?  The personal savings rate across the country has been on the rise, we'll see if this next round of "free money" doesn't drive it back to negative numbers.

"Wonderful thing, wireless, isn’t it?"
Captain Arthur Rostron, to Second Officer James Bisset, on the Titantic having told him the latest news on the known positions of icebergs. This was at around 10:00 p.m., April 14th, 1912.

Boobus Americanus

James Quinn may have come up with one better than "sheeple".  Boobus Americanus...why didn't I think of that one?
"Today’s Keynesian economists have convinced boobus Americanus that the Great Depression was caused by the Federal Reserve being too tight with monetary policy and the Hoover administration not providing enough fiscal stimulus. Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama used this line of reasoning to ram through an $850 billion pork-laden stimulus package, as well as the purchase of $1.2 trillion of toxic mortgages by the Federal Reserve.  The only trouble is that this storyline is a complete sham.  The fact that colossal stimulus spending, zero interest rates, the purchase of over a trillion in toxic assets by the Fed, and the loosest monetary policy in history have done absolutely nothing to revitalize the economy, has proven that Keynesian policies have been a wretched failure. This is not a surprise to Austrian school economists.  Keynesian policies failed during the Great Depression, and they are failing today. An economic catastrophe caused by loose monetary policies, crushing levels of debt, and appalling lending practices cannot be solved by looser monetary policies, issuance of twice as much debt, and government commanding banks (or, in the case of Fannie and Freddie, “commandeering”) to make more bad loans.  The Great Depression was caused by Federal Reserve expansion of the money supply in the 1920s that led to an unsustainable credit-driven boom. When the Federal Reserve belatedly tightened in 1928, it was too late to avoid financial collapse. According to Murray Rothbard, in his book America’s Great Depression, the artificial interference in the economy was a disaster prior to the depression, and government efforts to prop up the economy after the crash of 1929 only made things worse. Government intervention delayed the market’s adjustment and made the road to complete recovery more difficult."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

the entire article:
http://www.theburningplatform.com/

The Fall Guys

"President Obama's inner circle will likely be losing some key players. CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante reports that sources say David Axelrod, the president's closest advisor, will move to Chicago next spring. Axelrod is expected to reassume his role as campaign manager in Mr. Obama's 2012 reelection bid. A potential, if not likely, replacement for Axelrod is current White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. The dominoes don't stop there. Rahm Emanuel, the president's Chief of Staff, may leave the White House as soon as next month."
Source: CBS News

"It was only a matter of time for the rats to start jumping off of the ship. It only makes sense for the budget director to leap first. Geitner and Rahm-bo will be next."

Random Roving, June 30, 2010

"The next four years will be very challenging on all fronts. As I've stated before, the economic cycle is must stronger than a political party or individual politicians. The psychology of the masses will drive the direction. I believe that the Democrats will be navigating the ship through major rogue waves. At the end of that process, the party will be in shambles. At that point, the masses will be disenchanted with both parties. At 'the bottom', there will be a third party that finally gains some steam and becomes a viable competitor. That party will probably be somewhere in the middle"
Random Roving, November 8, 2008

Another One Bites The Dust

It seems like yesterday when the last rat fled the ship.

"The departure of economic adviser Larry Summers opens the way for President Barack Obama to shake up leadership of his economic team and show he is taking seriously growing public frustration over the sluggish economic recovery."
Source: Reuters

Many more to come.

The Evangelical Mob

"Neither Democrats nor Republicans can afford to ignore the antiestablishment fervor displayed Saturday during Beck's rally that took on the tone of an evangelical revival.  Billed as a nonpolitical event, it nevertheless was a clarifying moment for those curious as to what clout an anti-Washington sentiment could have on midterm congressional elections in November. The gathering was advertised as an opportunity to honor American troops. But it also illustrated voters' exasperation — and provided additional evidence that Democrats in power — as well as some incumbent Republicans — may pay the price when voters go to the polls."
Source: Associated Press

"The angry mob is seeking culprits. The game of politics is hot as ever. Rush Limbaugh has resurfaced as the Republican hero. Obama is now to blame for this whole crisis."
Random Roving, "The Blame Game", March 7, 2009

"During a descending mass social mood, people become angry and fearful."
Random Roving, "It's A Mad Mad Mad Mad World", February 27, 2009

The Loss of Confidence Part 2

"Public confidence in government is at one of the lowest points in a half century, according to a survey from the Pew Research Center. Nearly 8 in 10 Americans say they don't trust the federal government and have little faith it can solve America's ills, the survey found. The survey illustrates the ominous situation President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party face as they struggle to maintain their comfortable congressional majorities in this fall's elections. Midterm prospects are typically tough for the party in power. Add a toxic environment like this and lots of incumbent Democrats could be out of work." The Associated Press 4-19-10

The Mass Social Mood Model

"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving - January 1, 2010

"When the tide is rising, we're happy participants, but when it lowers we seek someone other than ourselves to blame."
Random Roving - March 7, 2009

The First Rat Jumps Off The Ship

It was only a matter of time for the rats to start jumping off of the ship.  It only makes sense for the budget director to leap first.  Geitner and Rahm-bo will be next. 

"Peter Orszag, White House budget director, yesterday became the first high-profile official to step down from office in Barack Obama's administration.  Mr Orszag, 41, whom the US president dubbed a "propeller-head" in reference to his geeky character, helped shepherd through last year's $787bn fiscal stimulus and played a vital role in negotiating the almost $1,000bn healthcare bill that was passed in March."
Source: Financial Times
Entire article:  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b39195e-7e60-11df-94a8-00144feabdc0.html

Same Old Black Gold Story

This week President Obama made a case for focusing on an energy policy. Jon Stewart's research team did an amazing job with this one.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
An Energy-Independent Future
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

So we leave this video with how much confidence that our fearless leaders will solve the problem. It will take a major crisis much greater than this oil spill to "move this beast".

The Breakup Of The Two Dynasties?

As usual, I'll stray from the typical "known" perspective of a recent event.  We all know that the BP oil spill is a tragedy of epic proportions.  We know that BP's CEO will be jobhunting soon (not really; he'll get a tremendous parachute; next thing to be mad at).  We all know that the politicians are seizing the moment.  Jindall won't leave the beach.  Nungesser has elevated his political ambition.  Obama is the fall guy (you know he blew up the levees).  Palin is paralyzed with her "drill baby drill" speech.  But, I digress.

One of the most interesting developments is the intense anger at BP because it is a British company.  I've heard so many sheeple proclaim "why is a foreign oil company drilling in our waters?".  Now you ask?  Because they and many others have been doing it for years.  We need them to because we need their investment capital. 

Could this event be the beginning of a rift with our "next of kin"?  Our co-invasion buddies?  Xenophobia against our native homeland?  During the contraction we herd with those like us and move away from those that are different.  Remember, keep an eye on the European Union.  It will come to a catastrophic conclusion.  Mark my words.

Deceitful Mouthpieces And Their Non-Thinking Worshippers

"There were already two fiscal hurricanes churning towards our shores before Obama and his non-critical thinking Democratic minions launched a third storm. No matter how many intellectually deceitful mouthpieces like Paul Krugman, Keith Olbermann, and Sean Hannity ignore the facts, the fiscal foundation of the country is crumbling under the weight of unfunded entitlement promises, out of control government spending and far flung military misadventures. Only someone who is intellectually bankrupt, like Krugman, would declare the National Debt at $8 trillion as a looming disaster when George Bush was President, but declare that a $12 trillion National Debt headed towards $20 trillion isn’t a danger now that Barack Obama is President. Olbermann proclaimed Afghanistan a disastrous misadventure when Bush was President. Now that Obama runs the show, the surge is working and Obama’s brilliant leadership has turned the tide. Hannity never uttered a negative word about a Republican neo-con, the Iraq War or the Afghan strategy between 2001 and 2008. Now he defames Obama on a nightly basis for being weak on Defense, despite that fact that Obama has doubled the troops in Afghanistan and proposed the largest Defense budget in the history of the country. The non-thinking worshippers of these ideologues never question or even reflect upon the facts."
James Quinn, The Burning Platform

Entire article: http://theburningplatform.com/blog/2010/04/04/sunday-bloody-sunday/

The Uniting Force

I'll continue to rant about the wasted time and energy of politics. The "them vs us" battle hasn't been this emotional in a long time. But, I argue that "behind the scenes", those "in charge" are really united. This might explain why after the financial meltdown, there has been ZERO reform. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...
IN GOLDMAN SACHS WE TRUST????

Dianna Farrell:
Obama Administration: Deputy Director, National Economic Council
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Financial Analyst

Stephen Friedman:
Obama Administration: Chairman, President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Board Member (Chairman, 1990-94; Director, 2005-)

Gary Gensler:
Obama Administration: Commissioner, Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner and Co-head of Finance

Robert Hormats:
Obama Administration: Undersecretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, State Department
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs Group

Philip Murphy:
Obama Administration: Ambassador to Germany
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Head of Goldman Sachs, Frankfurt

Mark Patterson:
Obama Administration: Chief of Staff to Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geitner
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Lobbyist 2005-2008; Vice President for Government Relations

John Thain:
Obama Administration: Advisor to Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geitner
Former Goldman Sachs Title: President and Chief Operating Officer (1999-2003)

Henry Paulson:
Bush II Administration: Secretary, Treasury 2006 - 2009
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Chairman and CEO (1998-2006)

Neel Kashkari:
Bush II Administration: Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability, Treasury (2008 – 2009)Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice President, San Francisco; led Information Technology
Security Investment Banking Practice

Reuben Jeffery III:
Bush II Administration: Undersecretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, State Department (2007 –2009)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Managing Partner Paris until 2002
Security Investment Banking Practice

Robert Steel:
Bush II Administration: Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, Treasury, (2006 – 2008)Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman – 2004

Steve Shafran:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Private equity business in Asia until 2000

Edward C. Forst:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Co-head of Goldman’s investment management business

Dan Jester:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Deputy CFO

Kendrick R. Wilson III:
Bush II Administration: Advisor on setting up TARP to Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson 2008
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Chairman of Goldman’s financial institutions groups

Joshua Bolten:
Bush II Administration: White House Chief of Staff (2006 – 2009)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Executive Director, Legal & Government Affairs (1994-99)

Gary Gensler:
Bush II Administration: Undersecretary, Treasury (1999-2001) and Assistant Secretary, Treasury (1997-1999)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner and Co-head of Finance

Robert Rubin:
Bush II Administration: Secretary, Treasury 1995-1999
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman (1987-90)

Robert Zoellick:
Bush II Administration: United States Trade Representative (2001-2005), Deputy Secretary of State (2005-2006), World Bank President (2007 -)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Vice Chairman, International (2006-07)

William C Dudley:
NY Federal Reserve: Current President/CEO
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner and managing director – 2007

Stephen Friedman:
NY Federal Reserve: Former Chairman of the Board – 2009
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Board Member (Chairman, 1990-94; Director, 2005-)
Other Noteworthy Appointees:

Edward Liddy:
Current Title: AIG CEO
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Board Member (Chairman, 1990-94; Director, 2005-)

Duncan Niederauer:
Current Title: Chair/CEO NYSE
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Managing Director – 2007

Malcolm Turnbull:
Current Title: Federal Leader, Liberal Party, Australia
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner (1998-2001)

Mark Carney:
Current Title: Governor, Bank of Canada
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Managing Director Goldman Sachs Canada until 2003

David Watson:
Current Title: Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Chief European economist

Romano Prodi:
Current Title: Prime Minister of Italy (1996-1998 and 2006-2008) and President of the European Commission (1999-2004)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Paid adviser/consultant 1990
– 1993

Mario Draghi:
Current Title: Governor of the Bank of Italy (2006- )
Former Goldman Sachs Title: European Deputy Chairman/Partner until 2006

Massimo Tononi:
Current Title: Italian Deputy Treasury Chief (2006-2008)
Former Goldman Sachs Title: Partner 2004 - 2006

Source: http://the-classic-liberal.com/white-goldman-sachs-house/

Eating Ice Cream In The Forest

Boy, the angry mob just got more angry this week. "Obamacare" set off the latest fireworks. As our VP said, "This is a big f**king deal!". Way to go Joe.

To state once again, being non-partisan, one can analyze a situation with a non-biased and unemotional perspective. The emotions are riding high these days. My email box is "on fire" the past few days with emails about Hitler, the collapsing US empire, and some cute little tales about kids running for office by promising ice cream.

So my question is, "does anyone think for themselves anymore?". All I hear from friends, associates, strangers, and the yahoos on TV is regurgitated political garbage. Does anyone actually research anything and form their own opinion? I can tell you exactly what a Republican or Democrat will say today. I'm not sure if "sheeple" or "zombies" is the best analogy.

As predicted on election day, President Obama will be the fall guy. A 28 year cycle has come to an end and someone has to hold the "hot potato". The fear is just amazing. Can you imagine if Obama passed the Patriot Act??? Wow. The Hitler emails would be ten fold.

Dubya was smart. He created the great "boogeyman" to scare the sheeple before he passed the Patriot Act and invaded the richest oil region in the world. Herding mammals "come together" when in fear. Once tightly together, selling these initiatives was easy. Most don't even know what the Patriot Act is or allows because they were hiding from the boogeyman when it quickly passed through our governing bodies.

Why didn't anyone protest that Dubya created the least jobs per year than any president in the last 11 presidents?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/tab/article/

Over Bush's two terms, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 28%! Over eight years, you not only didn't grow your retirement account, but you lost over a quarter of it. So, again I ask, "where was the tea party?".

When Bush left office, the US had $55,000,000,000,000 of unfunded liabilities! That's 55 trillion! He left us with record debt. Where was the tea party? You might want to make the 32.5 minute investment again:
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/02/325-minute-investment.html

Passing legislation for healthcare is a little more challenging. How do you create a "healthcare boogeyman". The "haves" already have coverage, so they risk losing something. Obama didn't take my advice to complete some short passes first!

Where is the Wall Street boogeyman? There has not been one change in the SEC rules since the meltdown. Amazing isn't it? Where are the teaparty protestors? I guess that they were not Madoff or Stanford victims. Why doesn't Sean, Ann, Glenn, and Bill throw a tea party asking for changes in the SEC? You don't want to know the answer to that one.

Well folks, stay calm and realize that there's more to come. Keep "the cycle model" in mind when you watch the news at night. If you know the "hurricane is coming", you won't be surprised and panic. It's time to distinguish the "forest from the trees".

Babysitting The Politicians

"The great issue, this friendly critic added, is debt. The public knows this; Congress and the White House do not. 'To me the Republicans are as rotten as the Democrats' in terms of spending. 'Almost.' 'I hope we have big changes in 2010,' the friend said. Only significant loss will force the president to focus on spending. 'To heal our country we need to get the arrogance out of the White House and the elitists out of the Congress. We need tough love. We need a real adult in the White House because we don't have adults in the Congress.'"
Peggy Noonan's Friend

Source: The Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704878904575031563325226450.html?mod=rss_Today

A Crescendo in American Anger

The Washington Post reports:
American disapproval of Obama is on the rise
By Joel Achenbach
Washington Post Staff Writer - Wednesday, January 27, 2010
"The state of the union is obstreperous. Dyspepsia is the new equilibrium. All the passion in American politics is oppositional. The American people know what they don't like, which is: everything. That sounds like nihilism, but they're against that, too. Consider the poll last week by The Washington Post and ABC News. People were asked a standard question about how much confidence they had in President Obama to "make the right decisions" for the nation's future. A majority -- 53 percent -- gave the two most dismal of the four possible responses: "just some" and "none at all." The same question had been asked a year earlier; in just 12 months, the "none at all" camp had tripled, from 9 percent to 27 percent. We are at a strange moment: a crescendo in American anger even as the man in the White House hums along in a state of preternatural equanimity. Obama, who will take over prime-time television Wednesday night for his annual address to Congress, has seen such a drastic erosion of popularity that he may get only about 35 or 40 standing ovations instead of the usual 50 or so. The Againstness Epidemic has been years in the making. Individual strains of opposition have been cultivated in the petri dishes of special interest groups, religious fundamentalists, blogs, cable TV shows, talk radio, fringe subcultures (birthers, truthers, tea partiers). They feed into, and are fed by, entrenched industries of disagreeableness (fossil fuel companies, labor unions, the Chamber of Commerce, Rush Limbaugh). We live in a country in which being contrarian now means advocating a mainstream initiative."

The media is always late to the party.

"Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the “fall guy” and historically during “inflection points” those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving - June 30, 2008

"The mob will get even more angry."
Random Roving - January 1, 2010

Happy New Year!! 2010 is Here.

It's my favorite time of the year to make predictions. I'm still sticking with all of my prior predictions. I'm interested in the "20-something" year cycles, so one year doesn't really make much of a difference.

"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08
This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come.

All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind.

I'm going to comment on my January 1, 2008 predictions one by one:

· Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - WRONG. Oil bottomed at $38/barrel. I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either.

· Gold: $1500/ou before $500/ou - I believe that $1500 is looking good.

· Dow Jones Ind. Avg.: 5000 before 15000 - We're currently in the middle. It still could be time to take the money and run.

· Next ten years will be the toughest we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Next twenty much tougher than last twenty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Next fifty much tougher than last fifty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Military draft: within ten years, probably 5 - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.

· Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season - CORRECT! But I never would have predicted a great season at the helm of the Vikings.

· Paris Hilton’s career tanks - Who really cares. It was a joke anyway.

· Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!!

"I believe that 2009 will be a very challenging year. I don't agree with the gurus that forecast a recession end by the third quarter of next year. Remember that those gurus just informed you that we've been in a recession for the past year. So much for proactive forecasting and timely notification. I think that we're in for a very long haul. A 26 year party requires a long hangover." Random Roving - 12/31/08

I chronicled the 26 year party in a little more detail.

I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking.

My additional predictions for 2010 are:

-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm".

-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper......

-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction".

-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!"

-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch.

-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.

-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware.

-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over.

-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left?

"I don’t think it matters who the next president is. I know that 99% of you will disagree with this statement. I believe that he will be doomed by the economic cycle. The cycle is much greater than a president or a political party. The next president will time it horribly like Carter did, but much worse. He will be the fall guy. He will be worn down by the Middle East like LBJ was with Vietnam. Hopefully he won’t receive the fate of JFK. Yes, that sounds pessimistic, but history is very repetitive." Random Roving - 11/4/08 Election Day

"Was Jimmy Carter really that bad of a president or did he time his economic cycle poorly? Was Bill Clinton really that good of a president or did he time his presidency extremely well? I believe that one was cursed and the other blessed from the “get go”. The next president, whoever he is, is doomed and will likely parallel Carter, JFK, or LBJ. Hopefully for him it will only be as bad as Carter." 6-30-08

-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!".

-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country.

-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece.

-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert.

-The downward trend in social mood will present some very positive developments (yeah! finally!):

---families will move geographically and emotionally closer

---materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness.

---gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels.

---religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch.

I'm sticking with my same recommendations from last year. They still are valid and wise.
My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

"As we move into a new year, the stock market's technically weak rally and the repercussions of the burst real estate will follow along. So stay flexible with your investment strategy because we could be in for another hard fall." Claus Vogt - Weiss Research Inc.

I continue to get feedback that this blog focuses too much on negative topics. I'm not sure if I feel more like Paul Revere or the weatherman. No one calls the weatherman a pessimist when he predicts that a hurricane will hit land in five days. They take his/her advice, prepare, and head to higher ground. Don't shoot the optimistic messenger! He's only trying to "fire a warning shot".

All Out

"Well, we are out of money now"
President Obama, 5-22-09 - C-SPAN Interview
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Last Call For Alcohol

After taking a roadtrip this past weekend to LSU with my kids, it brought back a lot of great college memories. Something about the smell of bourbon in Tiger Stadium triggered some flashbacks.

I compare our current economic times with a massive hangover. If there's one thing I learned after my 4.5 years at LSU, it is that a great party is always followed by a bad hangover. I would surmize that the "fun" and the "hangover" have a linear relationship. You can't just have the fun without the pain to follow. That's "natural law" of alcohol consumption.

We have to go back to 1982 to really understand when and how this party really started. Bartender Ronnie known by most bar patrons as "The Gipper" kicked the party off with a nice happy hour. Drinks were 2 for 1 and the party quickly kicked into high gear. Bar owner at the time, Mr. Volcker, loved the happy hour concept. Getting the patrons drunk early led to great revenues later in the evening.

When Ronnie announced that his time was up, the bar patrons asked for a bartender just like him. In steps George I who had all intentions of continuing the party. Unfortunately, the bar was sold just prior to Bush I starting his shift. Early in the bar ownership, Mr. Greenspan was more cautious with his drink specials. In 1987, a patron drove home drunk, crashed, and sued the bar.

Due to George's limitations, the bar patrons asked for a new bartender. In steps Bubba. He knew what the patrons liked. He restarted the cheap drinks and threw in a few dancing girls and free cigars. The party went into overdrive. Everyone was intoxicated and the drinks kept pouring and pouring. The law only allowed bartenders to serve for so many hours, so in steps new bartender George II.

At first, the patrons were cautious, but after seeing him beat up some unruly patrons, everyone got on board and the party continued. Bar fights started to breakout more often during George II's shift, but the alcohol kept flowing so the crowd continued to dance the night away. The bar ownership had changed one more time, but the new owner, Mr. Bernanke, promised that they were going to "party like it was 1999!". To deal with the fighting thugs, he just hired a bunch of massive bouncers to keep the crowd in line.

Some wise patrons decided that they had consumed enough for one night and they departed for home. The bar just didn't feel the same to them anymore. While they missed out on the wildest part of the night, they travelled home safely and quickly relaxed in the comfort of their home. George II, like Bubba, had to end his shift, but the remaining patrons were about to kick it up one more notch.

The new bartender, Barack, shows up and announces "tequila shots are 2 for 1 for the rest of the night!". Many hours into the partying, the patrons are so intoxicated they don't know right from left. Tequila is pouring everywhere and the bar is in high gear. Dancing and singing, the patrons don't want the night to end. Barry was so cool of a bartender, that he even drank beer with the patrons.

Without warning, the lights come on, and someone announces on the PA system, "last call for alcohol". There's a frenzy as everyone races to the bar to get one final round of tequila from Barack. Due to the limited time left, there is a lot of pushing and shoving. Everyone knows that all won't be able to sip one final round of tequila, salt, and lime. One patron yells, "one more body shot please!". The bar finally closes. Being daily savings time night, it was able to stay open one extra hour. One extra hour of tequila seemed like a great gift at 2 a.m.

At 3 a.m. the real partiers headed for their cars and the drunken ride home. Two were killed as they crashed head-on into a tree. Most were blessed to arrive home safely despite their inebriated condition. Sleep came and lasted well into the next morning.

As the bar patrons awoke, their head throbbed, and their muscles ached. Their mouths were so dry, they hardly could speak. They quickly questioned the decisions from the night before. One yelled "Why did we do those tequila shooters?". The other yelled back "Why did we do four rounds of those tequila shooters?". The third yelled "because it tasted good my friends!".

As the day wore on and the hangover continued, some started to get angry at the bartenders from the night prior. "They knew we were drunk. Why would they keep serving us?". Another stated "That last dude Barack should have never sold tequila shots 2 for 1. How could we pass on that?". "Yes, it's his fault one said to another. He just wanted to make the bar more money. He took advantage of us.".

Amazing to all, the same crew ventured into the same bar the next night. They didn't seek out the tequila, but they quickly shifted back into party mode. The weekend consisted of two nights, and they wanted to get their share.
THE END

So I ask, when will we hear "last call for alcohol!". Be proactive and head home from "the bar" early. Take some tylenol before bedtime and drink a lot of water! The party was fun and we all took part. Blaming the last bartender is cowardly and irresponsible. If you want to blame any, you have to blame them all. Remember, it all started at 2 for 1 happy hour. Don't blame the bartenders for your own decisions.