Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Don't Shoot The Messenger

I recently had some discussion with a friend regarding the email below that I sent him on June 30, 2008

Overall, mass social mood shifted in year 2000 from “happy and greedy” to “angry and fearful”. Watch the news at night to confirm. The human mammal, like all other mammals, herds and hoards when fearful. Right now across the world the “super giants” are hoarding everything….oil, steel, grain, etc. (rice rationing at Sam’s Club!!)

The problems of the future are about much more than oil. Oil is at the forefront because it drives our economy and our excessive, gluttonous American lifestyle. We also see it at the pump on a weekly basis. Many challenges ahead.

I’m continually dumbfounded by the fact that most people believe that the economy is controlled by the president and their administration. I first ask: “wouldn’t all presidents want a good economy? If so, why don’t they create it?”. I’m a big believer in Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand.
Markets beat to their own cycle. Presidents are like bullriders trying just to stay on for 8 seconds and if they’re lucky, maybe they steer the bull in one direction for a brief moment. Was Jimmy Carter really that bad of a president or did he time his economic cycle poorly? Was Bill Clinton really that good of a president or did he time his presidency extremely well? I believe that one was cursed and the other blessed from the “get go”. The next president, whoever he is, is doomed and will likely parallel Carter, JFK, or LBJ. Hopefully for him it will only be as bad as Carter.

Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the “fall guy” and historically during “inflection points” those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch (ask Martha Stewart, George Bush, Jeff Emmelt, Ben Bernanke, and Brittany Spears).
The barometer since 6-23-08:

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