Tremors Abound

Today the Associated Press reports:

"The Secret Service has determined that a juvenile was behind the online survey that asked whether people thought President Barack Obama should be assassinated, an agency spokesman said Thursday. No criminal charges will be filed against the juvenile or the juvenile's parents, spokesman Edwin Donovan said. Donovan would not identify the names of the child or parents or say where they are from. The poll, posted Saturday on Facebook, was taken off the popular social networking site quickly after company officials were alerted to its existence. But, like any threat against the president, Secret Service agents took no chances. The poll asked respondents "Should Obama be killed?" The choices: No, Maybe, Yes, and Yes if he cuts my health care."

"Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the “fall guy” and historically during “inflection points” those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The 'mob' has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch (ask Martha Stewart, George Bush, Jeff Emmelt, Ben Bernanke, and Brittany Spears)." Random Roving - June 30, 2008

Article source:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iSHdC8oUo_rn0oPC-cZ9oVqaFIGgD9B2B5000

The Circus Continues

I was riding into work today and the DJ on the radio was going crazy over the recent Brittany Spears concert. She stated that this could be the "greatest comeback ever!". I was thinking "better than the Bills over the Oilers in 1993????

Pop culture provides some great insight into the state of mass social mood. Her meltdown last year aligned very well with the downturn of the contraction phase. Maybe this recent rebound will align with the last bear market rally. The title "CIRCUS" might be very timely and appropriate. I would say that if Brittany is still at the top of the charts, this contraction has quite a ways to go. At the bottom, pop divas won't be at the forefront of our consciousness. Oops, I did it again!

Don't Shoot The Messenger

I recently had some discussion with a friend regarding the email below that I sent him on June 30, 2008

Overall, mass social mood shifted in year 2000 from “happy and greedy” to “angry and fearful”. Watch the news at night to confirm. The human mammal, like all other mammals, herds and hoards when fearful. Right now across the world the “super giants” are hoarding everything….oil, steel, grain, etc. (rice rationing at Sam’s Club!!)

The problems of the future are about much more than oil. Oil is at the forefront because it drives our economy and our excessive, gluttonous American lifestyle. We also see it at the pump on a weekly basis. Many challenges ahead.

I’m continually dumbfounded by the fact that most people believe that the economy is controlled by the president and their administration. I first ask: “wouldn’t all presidents want a good economy? If so, why don’t they create it?”. I’m a big believer in Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand.

Markets beat to their own cycle. Presidents are like bullriders trying just to stay on for 8 seconds and if they’re lucky, maybe they steer the bull in one direction for a brief moment. Was Jimmy Carter really that bad of a president or did he time his economic cycle poorly? Was Bill Clinton really that good of a president or did he time his presidency extremely well? I believe that one was cursed and the other blessed from the “get go”. The next president, whoever he is, is doomed and will likely parallel Carter, JFK, or LBJ. Hopefully for him it will only be as bad as Carter.

Obama has a bright future. I hope for his sake that he loses, because he will be the “fall guy” and historically during “inflection points” those presidents have been the recipients of bullets (Lincoln, McKinley, Kennedy, Reagan). The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch (ask Martha Stewart, George Bush, Jeff Emmelt, Ben Bernanke, and Brittany Spears).

The barometer since 6-23-08:

Happy New Years!

Another year has flown by and a new year is upon us. 2009 should be another wild ride!

It's 2009 and we have a lot to be thankful for:
-We have our health.
-God has taken good care of us.
-Our family is happy, safe, and well taken care of.
-We are employed.
-Our country hasn't been invaded by a more powerful country seeking our resources.
-We're not about to become the next president of the United States.
-We're not about to become the next Secretary of State of the United States.
-Our football team is rebuilding and will be back on top next year.
-Our country isn't experiencing riots.
-Our stock portfolio hasn't fallen 100%.
-George W. Bush is retiring.
-Gasoline is cheap.
-You still can walk in your grocery and buy food imported from all over the country and the world.
-You still have internet access.
-Brittany Spears is back at #1.
-The aliens are still only observing us.
-It's still not too late to get in shape.
-And last but not least: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band are not only about to release a new CD, but are performing at halftime at the Superbowl.

Since New Years is a good time to make predictions, I'll probably just review/revise mine from 10/1/08. I'm sticking with all of them, except my oil price prediction has already been proven wrong.

10/1/08 Predictions
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2008/10/four-potential-outcomes.html
· Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel WRONG
· Gold: $1500/ou before $500/ou
· Dow Jones Ind. Avg.: 5000 before 15000
· Next ten years will be the toughest we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime
· Next twenty much tougher than last twenty
· Next fifty much tougher than last fifty
· Military draft: within ten years, probably 5
· Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season
· Paris Hilton’s career tanks
· Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!!
My one new prediction: Superbowl 2009 - The Manning Bowl - Peyton vs Eli

I believe that 2009 will be a very challenging year. I don't agree with the gurus that forecast a recession end by the third quarter of next year. Remember that those gurus just informed you that we've been in a recession for the past year. So much for proactive forecasting and timely notification. I think that we're in for a very long haul. A 26 year party requires a long hangover.

My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

For a laugh and summary of 2008:
http://sendables.jibjab.com/sendables/202809/2008_year_in_review

Happy New Year to all!!!