My Dream Superbowl

What a day of NFL football yesterday. 9.5 hours of stress for me. Congrats Colts! Slow and steady continues to work for the Blue Nation.

How about those Saints! What a game. Brett Favre was incredible despite being hammered all night. They keep finding a way to win. 43 years of disappointment finally came to an end. Mardi Gras is off to an early start.

My phone was buzzing with text messages afterwards. The 11 year old down the street asked the same question....."Mr. B., who are you going to pull for?". I hope for a great game....one like last night. But, how can anyone on the planet NOT pull for the Saints? The franchise and the city deserves this one. I think that the Colts have the advantage, but Brees will have to attack those Colts corners much more aggressively than he did yesterday. It should be a great one!!

"My two favorite NFL teams are 8-0. Go Saints, Go Colts! What a Superbowl that would be."

Random Roving - November 8, 2009

"Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season. Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! It ain’t all bad…"

Random Roving - October 1, 2008

"But remember I predict a Super Bowl victory for the Saints next season!"

Random Roving - November 7, 2008

Multiple Plays

My favorite NFL player, Peyton Manning, has one of the most interesting pre-snap processes in the league. In the huddle, he presents 2-4 different plays that might be called. Tom Moore, the offensive coordinator, serves as mentor and presents the original 2-4 plays. Upon getting to the line, he assesses the defense and makes a final decision. He and center, Jeff Saturday, bark out the code words for the play and blocking scheme.

In my October 2008 post, Four Potential Outcomes, I presented what I believed to be the four potential outcomes in the near future. Outcome #1, deflation, appears to have already swiftly occurred devasting asset prices in all sectors including commodities. The "missing piece" is that from an Austrian economics perspective, credit and money expansion need to deflate also. As we know, the opposite is occurring on a staggering level.

Option #2, inflation, appears to me to be the "next wave". The Fed and the Obama administration are continuing the "money printing" that Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, and Dubya participated in. The difference is that it's being done at unprecedented levels. The "slope" of the M3 curve makes Clinton's "printing" look trivial. The most likely result will be massive hyperinflation. This will drive prices of everything through the roof. As stated in the Oct-2008 post, buy some commodities. Gold is already back near its pre-crash price.

Option #3, the "zig zag", is the sideways movement similiar to Japan from 1990 to present. This involves minor "ups and downs" with no significant growth or contraction. Based on the past six month decline in prices, I would say that this option is already ruled out. The significant drop in prices already in place is more than what I would describe as a "zig zag".

Option #4, "the party continues", is the most fascinating to me because my unofficial survey says that everyone is still "all in" with stocks. The "40-50 something" generation only knows stocks and 401k's. The concept of buying gold coins is so foreign to most and I admit that it was initially to me (just had some more shiny ones arrive yesterday....beautiful!). I believe that the American public hopes for a continuation of the Supersize Me Era. We really enjoyed it and we hope that somehow Obama can keep the party going. Unfortunately, I believe that the kegs have run dry and we'll be forced to shift our mentality to a place it hasn't been in our lifetime. It's best to be proactive than reactive. Reactive can be very painful. Hopefully you have a nice photo album of the era. It will be one to remember.

As stated earlier, Peyton Manning, comes to the line with 2-4 plays. I believe that the American public only has one play. Design your plan with multiple plays and risk weight their probability of occurence. Also, assess your advisor. Tom Moore, Manning's offensive coordinator, has a great track record of success which eliminates Peyton's need to question the play calling. Who is your play caller? Has he/she only presented one play?

Here's my assessment of the probability of occurence:
-Option #1: Deflation (35%)
-Option #2: Inflation (55%)
-Option #3: Zig-Zag (0%)
-Option #4: Continued Bubble Expansion (10%)

The heavier weighting of the inflation outcome has driven me to shift my portfolio strongly towards commodities (oil, natural gas, food, gold, and silver).

Happy New Years!

Another year has flown by and a new year is upon us. 2009 should be another wild ride!

It's 2009 and we have a lot to be thankful for:
-We have our health.
-God has taken good care of us.
-Our family is happy, safe, and well taken care of.
-We are employed.
-Our country hasn't been invaded by a more powerful country seeking our resources.
-We're not about to become the next president of the United States.
-We're not about to become the next Secretary of State of the United States.
-Our football team is rebuilding and will be back on top next year.
-Our country isn't experiencing riots.
-Our stock portfolio hasn't fallen 100%.
-George W. Bush is retiring.
-Gasoline is cheap.
-You still can walk in your grocery and buy food imported from all over the country and the world.
-You still have internet access.
-Brittany Spears is back at #1.
-The aliens are still only observing us.
-It's still not too late to get in shape.
-And last but not least: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band are not only about to release a new CD, but are performing at halftime at the Superbowl.

Since New Years is a good time to make predictions, I'll probably just review/revise mine from 10/1/08. I'm sticking with all of them, except my oil price prediction has already been proven wrong.

10/1/08 Predictions
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2008/10/four-potential-outcomes.html
· Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel WRONG
· Gold: $1500/ou before $500/ou
· Dow Jones Ind. Avg.: 5000 before 15000
· Next ten years will be the toughest we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime
· Next twenty much tougher than last twenty
· Next fifty much tougher than last fifty
· Military draft: within ten years, probably 5
· Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season
· Paris Hilton’s career tanks
· Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!!
My one new prediction: Superbowl 2009 - The Manning Bowl - Peyton vs Eli

I believe that 2009 will be a very challenging year. I don't agree with the gurus that forecast a recession end by the third quarter of next year. Remember that those gurus just informed you that we've been in a recession for the past year. So much for proactive forecasting and timely notification. I think that we're in for a very long haul. A 26 year party requires a long hangover.

My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!

For a laugh and summary of 2008:
http://sendables.jibjab.com/sendables/202809/2008_year_in_review

Happy New Year to all!!!