We're All In

I just love listening to Team Red and Blue continue to blame each other for everything. The chart below confirms the responsibility.  The answer: they all participated and we did too by accepting "the credit".  Remember "no interest loans"?  Zero percent financing? 4% mortgage refinance?

While Bush I was held back by Sir Greenspan, he wanted to print as much as the others.  This curve is looking outrageously steep too!

True Money Supply (Source: Agora Capital)

A Shift Toward The Big "D"

"In my October 2008 post, Four Potential Outcomes, I presented what I believed to be the four potential outcomes in the near future. Outcome #1, deflation, appears to have already swiftly occurred devasting asset prices in all sectors including commodities. The "missing piece" is that from an Austrian economics perspective, credit and money expansion need to deflate also. As we know, the opposite is occurring on a staggering level."
Random Roving, March 26, 2009

Well the chart below provides the "missing piece".  Money supply is tanking rapidly.  An Austrian economist would declare that deflation is here.  That would mean a decline in the value of everything. 

Source: Shadowstats.com

Drug Addict In Rehab

"Ambrose Evans Pritchard dedicated a piece yesterday to the collapse in M3 growth, something that hasn’t been seen in the US since the Great Depression. Monetarists the world around are frightened about this trend, and with good reason. US interest rates are already essentially zero. The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus has been epic in nature. And all this has still not prevented the actual textbook deflationary trend we now find ourselves in. "It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said. The major reason for this is that the banking system has severely curtailed its lending activities, which are largely (but not entirely) responsible for the growth in the money supply thanks to the money multiplier. One must ask how this is possible since essentially the banks have the Taxpayer Put in place where the US taxpayer is immediately hooked for any significant failure. For decades we have had an economy that relied on credit for its survival and now, like a drug addict in rehab, that credit is being limited. The result was fairly predictable. Given the massive debts in our system, there are two obvious choices. First, hyperinflate away the debt. However, that ultimately ends in the destruction of the currency and the end of the current fiat age. Secondly, we could default through deflation/devaluation, and try to, in effect, reset the system much like what happened in the 1930’s. The major difference between then and now is the relative financial position of both the nation and individuals. Both are considerably weakened as we approach this next phase in America’s existence. I’ve argued for the coordinated default/devaluation outcome for some time now. The collapse of M3 growth is one of the biggest factors on this side of the argument. The second is history. The US already has a rich experience in fiat money, dating back to before Lexington and Concord. We also have a rich history of defaults thanks to the over-issuance of fiat money. Granted, the defaults consisted of ceasing to redeem paper money for specie (Gold/Silver), but a default is a default. We are clearly out of control in terms of our debts, both internal and external, and don’t seem the least bit concerned about real generational or fiscal reform beyond traditional Washington lip service. The Fed has been largely ineffective at doing anything but fattening bank cash flows by squeezing savers and allowing banks to collect generous margins on the performing consumer loans they do have. The bailout money sits in bank coffers, withheld from an economy that now depends on loans for its very survival."

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19843.html

Cascading Bubbles

For reasons unknown, I've never really liked the term "bubble", but due to a lack of a better term, I'll use it today to illustrate a point.  I've always liked the phrase "overshoot and collapse" which is used in the biological realm to explain the rapid growth and subsequent crash in the population of a given species.  That's a subject for a later post.

I thought it would be interesting to analyze the impact of the money supply through time on various "bubbles".  The chart below illustrates quite beautifully how the money supply (M3-black dash) impacts the rise and fall of all markets.  The chart compares 5 asset types: technology, financials, oil, homebuilding, and wheat.  These all have experienced drastic "rise and falls" since the mid to late 90's.  Many commodities followed the exact pattern, but I used oil and wheat as two examples.  Click on the chart for a larger view.

Observations that can be made:

1. 
   
   M3 (money supply) rises in the early 80's (Reagan), flattens in late 80's (Bush I), rapidly accelerates in 1995 (Clinton), and keeps rising rapidly after 2000 (Bush II).
2. 
   
   Reagan pulls us out of the doldrums not by magical things called "trickle down" or "supply side", but by turning on the "money supply accelerator" in the early 80's.  Note the M3 Rate of Change curve on the bottom.  A trending up curve indicates a rapidly increasing money supplly while the downtrend is decelerating.
3. 
   
   The Great Maestro, Alan Greenspan, pulls off the accelerator in 1988 and Bush I loses re-election.
4. 
   
   Note that during the "flat" M3 from 1988-1995, the markets are aligned and flat. 
5. 
   
   In 1995, Clinton leads the public to believe that he magically makes the deficit disappear and balances the budget.  Meanwhile, the money supply starts a significant upward climb.  Note the M3 Rate of Change on the bottom of the graph.  It rises rapidly.
6. 
   
   Subsequent with the rapid rise in M3 in 1995, the markets go into "chaos" mode.  The money supply drives the financials and technology through the roof.  Note the steepness of the curves after 1995 in all sectors.  The end result is the DotCom mania.  Now we understand where all of that crazy investment and venture capital money came from!
7. 
   
   DotCom crashes only to see the "credit bubble" move into financials, homebuilding, and commodities (oil/wheat).  2001 marks a "new beginning".  Same game, but different sectors.
8. 
   
   The markets all align in late 2008 subsequent with the steepest rise in M3 Rate of Change.  Then they ALL come crashing down.  As Robert Prechter with Elliott Wave International has stated, "all the same".  Equities and commodities crash together in perfect synchrony.
9. 
   
   Money supply has significant impact on the markets.  While the Federal Reserve was supposedly created to help "nudge" the market when it needed assistance, the contrary is presented from this 30 year history.  After 1995, it looks more like a heroin junky flying up and down.

The Chart Speaks Volumes

The Fed's money printing machine has been busy since the Reagan years, but all presidents since and including Clinton have kept it on constant "full throttle". The last year even makes the prior years look tame. This is a chart that won't show up on the evening news that's for sure.

Source: Weiss Research Inc.

Multiple Plays

My favorite NFL player, Peyton Manning, has one of the most interesting pre-snap processes in the league. In the huddle, he presents 2-4 different plays that might be called. Tom Moore, the offensive coordinator, serves as mentor and presents the original 2-4 plays. Upon getting to the line, he assesses the defense and makes a final decision. He and center, Jeff Saturday, bark out the code words for the play and blocking scheme.

In my October 2008 post, Four Potential Outcomes, I presented what I believed to be the four potential outcomes in the near future. Outcome #1, deflation, appears to have already swiftly occurred devasting asset prices in all sectors including commodities. The "missing piece" is that from an Austrian economics perspective, credit and money expansion need to deflate also. As we know, the opposite is occurring on a staggering level.

Option #2, inflation, appears to me to be the "next wave". The Fed and the Obama administration are continuing the "money printing" that Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, and Dubya participated in. The difference is that it's being done at unprecedented levels. The "slope" of the M3 curve makes Clinton's "printing" look trivial. The most likely result will be massive hyperinflation. This will drive prices of everything through the roof. As stated in the Oct-2008 post, buy some commodities. Gold is already back near its pre-crash price.

Option #3, the "zig zag", is the sideways movement similiar to Japan from 1990 to present. This involves minor "ups and downs" with no significant growth or contraction. Based on the past six month decline in prices, I would say that this option is already ruled out. The significant drop in prices already in place is more than what I would describe as a "zig zag".

Option #4, "the party continues", is the most fascinating to me because my unofficial survey says that everyone is still "all in" with stocks. The "40-50 something" generation only knows stocks and 401k's. The concept of buying gold coins is so foreign to most and I admit that it was initially to me (just had some more shiny ones arrive yesterday....beautiful!). I believe that the American public hopes for a continuation of the Supersize Me Era. We really enjoyed it and we hope that somehow Obama can keep the party going. Unfortunately, I believe that the kegs have run dry and we'll be forced to shift our mentality to a place it hasn't been in our lifetime. It's best to be proactive than reactive. Reactive can be very painful. Hopefully you have a nice photo album of the era. It will be one to remember.

As stated earlier, Peyton Manning, comes to the line with 2-4 plays. I believe that the American public only has one play. Design your plan with multiple plays and risk weight their probability of occurence. Also, assess your advisor. Tom Moore, Manning's offensive coordinator, has a great track record of success which eliminates Peyton's need to question the play calling. Who is your play caller? Has he/she only presented one play?

Here's my assessment of the probability of occurence:
-Option #1: Deflation (35%)
-Option #2: Inflation (55%)
-Option #3: Zig-Zag (0%)
-Option #4: Continued Bubble Expansion (10%)

The heavier weighting of the inflation outcome has driven me to shift my portfolio strongly towards commodities (oil, natural gas, food, gold, and silver).

The Disappearance of M3

Based on the number of times I've received the YouTube link for Glenn Beck's recent animated performance on M3 (money supply), I conclude that this "piece of the puzzle" is finally coming to the forefront. Many don't know that during Bush's term in 2006, the Federal Reserve decided that it was too costly to track and report M3 to the U.S. citizens. Here is the official release from the Fed:

Discontinuance of M3
On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release. Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks). M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

SOURCE: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm



Glenn Beck's performance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlHBYQrCnIk

As I've said in the past, it is NOT WEEL

The Rising Tide

The rise in credit drove the rise in the financial markets, home sizes, debt levels, confidence, waistlines, car sizes, and childhood obesity. It’s all intertwined and some might say it was all artificially created. The “supersize me” era has ended. History will show that 2000 was the beginning of the end of this massive credit orgy. While everyone is blaming the mortgage market, I believe that this situation or cycle dates back to 1982 with Reagan/Voelker. That’s when the credit and greenback printing presses started warming up. Bush Sr./Greenspan participated. Clinton/Greenspan accelerated to a higher level and Dubyah/Bernanke continued the process. ALL were participants. Both political parties. To hear Greenspan interviewed last week and state that he knew this was coming is outrageous. He was the mastermind behind the majority of the credit cycle. The Fed continues to destroy the U.S. dollar. At some point, the printing presses will run out. Two years ago the Fed quit reporting M3 figures. They said that it was too expensive to track!!! Zimbabwe did the same thing with their inflation rate. Don’t worry, we got ya covered!