The PIIGS continue to lead the worldwide news stories. Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain. Greece, and now Italy, appear to be on the forefront. It's amazing that the sheeple believe that removing the prime ministers solves the debt problem. Going to be interesting to watch!
"The PIIGS continue to lead the pack to destruction."
Random Roving, January 1, 2011
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Lonely At The Top
The Greek Prime Minister teeters between resignation and securing a debt deal with his former EU buddies.
"Even if he survives the coming hours or days in office, the prime minister is widely seen as having expended nearly all his political capital. Ever since Greece asked for a bailout from the European Union in April 2010, he has struggled to satisfy seemingly irreconcilable constituencies: the Greek electorate and Greece’s foreign lenders, who have insisted on tough austerity measures in exchange for aid, pushing Greek democracy to the breaking point."
Source: NY Times
"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010
"Even if he survives the coming hours or days in office, the prime minister is widely seen as having expended nearly all his political capital. Ever since Greece asked for a bailout from the European Union in April 2010, he has struggled to satisfy seemingly irreconcilable constituencies: the Greek electorate and Greece’s foreign lenders, who have insisted on tough austerity measures in exchange for aid, pushing Greek democracy to the breaking point."
Source: NY Times
"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving, January 1, 2010
Thursday, October 20, 2011
German Vampires
"'We are not lazy; it's the Germans, they want to take our blood,' said Eleftherios Zarkados (Greek citizen)."
Source: CNN
"Organizations like the European Union are in the process of 'fragmenting'. During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel 'the pain', their partners in the EU will continue to ask 'why are we being dragged down by them?'."
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Michael Lewis On Charlie Rose
This is a fascinating interview (2nd half about Iceland, Ireland, and Greece).
http://www.charlierose.com/
http://www.charlierose.com/
Protesting Protection
In a scenario similar to the police in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, the Greek police have now decided to protest. So who arrests the non-police protestors?
"The very people who have been charged with protecting the Greek parliament and politicians from furious crowds and who have even been criticised by Amnesty International for their heavy-handedness, the Greek police, have themselves now begun to protest EU-IMF austerity. On Monday, police from the Special Guards unit climbed Mount Lycabettus, the highest point in Athens, to hang a giant black banner underneath the hill’s famous Chapel of St. George saying 'Pay day, day of mourning'. Some 50 striking police officers protected the banner from police who remained in service and who had been sent to tear the banner down."
Source: EU Observer
"The very people who have been charged with protecting the Greek parliament and politicians from furious crowds and who have even been criticised by Amnesty International for their heavy-handedness, the Greek police, have themselves now begun to protest EU-IMF austerity. On Monday, police from the Special Guards unit climbed Mount Lycabettus, the highest point in Athens, to hang a giant black banner underneath the hill’s famous Chapel of St. George saying 'Pay day, day of mourning'. Some 50 striking police officers protected the banner from police who remained in service and who had been sent to tear the banner down."
Source: EU Observer
Monday, September 19, 2011
Opa All Over Again?
As Yogi Berra might say "is it Opa all over again?".
"European stock markets fell sharply on Monday, with banks like Societe Generale SA sinking on concerns Greece could default on its debt ahead of crisis talks aimed at determining whether the embattled nation gets the next round of much-needed aid."
Market Watch, 9/19/11
"We are moving apart. Organizations like the European Union are in the process of "fragmenting". During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel "the pain", their partners in the EU will continue to ask 'why are we being dragged down by them?'."
Random Roving, March 30, 2010
Opa 1
Opa 2
Opa 3
"European stock markets fell sharply on Monday, with banks like Societe Generale SA sinking on concerns Greece could default on its debt ahead of crisis talks aimed at determining whether the embattled nation gets the next round of much-needed aid."
Market Watch, 9/19/11
"We are moving apart. Organizations like the European Union are in the process of "fragmenting". During an upward trending mass social mood, we make peace and sign peace treaties. We form cooperative organizations during these times and merge currencies. Now, the tide has shifted. Keep an eye on the EU. As Greece, Spain, and others continue to feel "the pain", their partners in the EU will continue to ask 'why are we being dragged down by them?'."
Random Roving, March 30, 2010
Opa 1
Opa 2
Opa 3
Monday, January 31, 2011
Anger & Hope
"It all began in one small Tunisia town with one despondent man, frustrated by lack of employment who set himself on fire and in turn set the whole Arab world ablaze with anger and hope. As the dominos fall throughout the Arab and northern African world, many of us wonder what is waiting on the other side. Will the people in these countries get the freedom and hope they desire?"
Source: Africana Online
An updated N. African protest map. The "nodes on the network" continue to connect. It might be a good time for a re-read of Gladwell's "Tipping Point"!
I've used my analogy of The Onion probably too much, but my "Argentina-Onion" post still ranks as my highest visited ever. The N. African onion layers are peeling back quickly. What's interesting, is that right across the "Mediterranean pond" there are countries such as Spain, Italy, and Portugal that are in much more financial trouble, but the power of the EU keeps them afloat. When the outer layers of the EU onion peel back further, it will be interesting to watch. Tunisia, Algeria, and Jordan haven't really attracted major news coverage, but Egypt sure has. Why, because Egypt is a more important peace in the "chess game". A U.S. ally, but a country with a long history of major conflict in the region, especially with our good friends in Israel. Stay tuned.
Source: Africana Online
An updated N. African protest map. The "nodes on the network" continue to connect. It might be a good time for a re-read of Gladwell's "Tipping Point"!
 |
| Protest Map - N. Africa / Middle East |
Thursday, January 20, 2011
And The Winner Is??
A current look at worldwide unemployment ranking.
Source: Bespoke Investments
 |
| Worldwide Unemployment |
Source: Bespoke Investments
Friday, September 17, 2010
The Great Pig Roast
This is one category that we would prefer to not be in the Top 5 of. When is the next pig roast?
P: Portugal
I: Ireland
G: Greece
S: Spain
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The Top Five
It's always interesting to see what "strikes a chord" with others. As of today, one of my posts in 2009 stands out way ahead of the pack with 831 page views. It already has 31 today, so something appears to strike a chord with that one. Maybe another look at "The Onion Peels In Argentina" is warranted. The web stats reveal that the viewers are U.S. based so the topic of interest probably wasn't Argentina, but the reminder of chaos in our country's past.
Friday, August 27, 2010
A Reaganite Departs The Herd
Finally a Reaganite breaks ranks and speaks about reality.
"If there were such a thing as Chapter 11 for politicians, the Republican push to extend the unaffordable Bush tax cuts would amount to a bankruptcy filing. The nation’s public debt — if honestly reckoned to include municipal bonds and the $7 trillion of new deficits baked into the cake through 2015 — will soon reach $18 trillion. That’s a Greece-scale 120 percent of gross domestic product, and fairly screams out for austerity and sacrifice. Republicans used to believe that prosperity depended upon the regular balancing of accounts — in government, in international trade, on the ledgers of central banks and in the financial affairs of private households and businesses, too. But the new catechism, as practiced by Republican policymakers for decades now, has amounted to little more than money printing and deficit finance — vulgar Keynesianism robed in the ideological vestments of the prosperous classes. This approach has not simply made a mockery of traditional party ideals. It has also led to the serial financial bubbles and Wall Street depredations that have crippled our economy. More specifically, the new policy doctrines have caused four great deformations of the national economy, and modern Republicans have turned a blind eye to each one.
The first of these started when the Nixon administration defaulted on American obligations under the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement to balance our accounts with the world. Now, since we have lived beyond our means as a nation for nearly 40 years, our cumulative current-account deficit — the combined shortfall on our trade in goods, services and income — has reached nearly $8 trillion. That’s borrowed prosperity on an epic scale. It is also an outcome that Milton Friedman said could never happen when, in 1971, he persuaded President Nixon to unleash on the world paper dollars no longer redeemable in gold or other fixed monetary reserves. Just let the free market set currency exchange rates, he said, and trade deficits will self-correct. It may be true that governments, because they intervene in foreign exchange markets, have never completely allowed their currencies to float freely. But that does not absolve Friedman’s $8 trillion error. Once relieved of the discipline of defending a fixed value for their currencies, politicians the world over were free to cheapen their money and disregard their neighbors. In fact, since chronic current-account deficits result from a nation spending more than it earns, stringent domestic belt-tightening is the only cure. When the dollar was tied to fixed exchange rates, politicians were willing to administer the needed castor oil, because the alternative was to make up for the trade shortfall by paying out reserves, and this would cause immediate economic pain — from high interest rates, for example. But now there is no discipline, only global monetary chaos as foreign central banks run their own printing presses at ever faster speeds to sop up the tidal wave of dollars coming from the Federal Reserve. The second unhappy change in the American economy has been the extraordinary growth of our public debt. In 1970 it was just 40 percent of gross domestic product, or about $425 billion. When it reaches $18 trillion, it will be 40 times greater than in 1970. This debt explosion has resulted not from big spending by the Democrats, but instead the Republican Party’s embrace, about three decades ago, of the insidious doctrine that deficits don’t matter if they result from tax cuts. In 1981, traditional Republicans supported tax cuts, matched by spending cuts, to offset the way inflation was pushing many taxpayers into higher brackets and to spur investment. The Reagan administration’s hastily prepared fiscal blueprint, however, was no match for the primordial forces — the welfare state and the warfare state — that drive the federal spending machine. Soon, the neocons were pushing the military budget skyward. And the Republicans on Capitol Hill who were supposed to cut spending exempted from the knife most of the domestic budget — entitlements, farm subsidies, education, water projects. But in the end it was a new cadre of ideological tax-cutters who killed the Republicans’ fiscal religion. Through the 1984 election, the old guard earnestly tried to control the deficit, rolling back about 40 percent of the original Reagan tax cuts. But when, in the following years, the Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker, finally crushed inflation, enabling a solid economic rebound, the new tax-cutters not only claimed victory for their supply-side strategy but hooked Republicans for good on the delusion that the economy will outgrow the deficit if plied with enough tax cuts. By fiscal year 2009, the tax-cutters had reduced federal revenues to 15 percent of gross domestic product, lower than they had been since the 1940s. Then, after rarely vetoing a budget bill and engaging in two unfinanced foreign military adventures, George W. Bush surrendered on domestic spending cuts, too — signing into law $420 billion in non-defense appropriations, a 65 percent gain from the $260 billion he had inherited eight years earlier. Republicans thus joined the Democrats in a shameless embrace of a free-lunch fiscal policy. The third ominous change in the American economy has been the vast, unproductive expansion of our financial sector. Here, Republicans have been oblivious to the grave danger of flooding financial markets with freely printed money and, at the same time, removing traditional restrictions on leverage and speculation. As a result, the combined assets of conventional banks and the so-called shadow banking system (including investment banks and finance companies) grew from a mere $500 billion in 1970 to $30 trillion by September 2008. But the trillion-dollar conglomerates that inhabit this new financial world are not free enterprises. They are rather wards of the state, extracting billions from the economy with a lot of pointless speculation in stocks, bonds, commodities and derivatives. They could never have survived, much less thrived, if their deposits had not been government-guaranteed and if they hadn’t been able to obtain virtually free money from the Fed’s discount window to cover their bad bets. The day of national reckoning has arrived. We will not have a conventional business recovery now, but rather a long hangover of debt liquidation and downsizing — as suggested by last week’s news that the national economy grew at an anemic annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. Under these circumstances, it’s a pity that the modern Republican Party offers the American people an irrelevant platform of recycled Keynesianism when the old approach — balanced budgets, sound money and financial discipline — is needed more than ever."
David Stockman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget under U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
Source: NY Times
"If there were such a thing as Chapter 11 for politicians, the Republican push to extend the unaffordable Bush tax cuts would amount to a bankruptcy filing. The nation’s public debt — if honestly reckoned to include municipal bonds and the $7 trillion of new deficits baked into the cake through 2015 — will soon reach $18 trillion. That’s a Greece-scale 120 percent of gross domestic product, and fairly screams out for austerity and sacrifice. Republicans used to believe that prosperity depended upon the regular balancing of accounts — in government, in international trade, on the ledgers of central banks and in the financial affairs of private households and businesses, too. But the new catechism, as practiced by Republican policymakers for decades now, has amounted to little more than money printing and deficit finance — vulgar Keynesianism robed in the ideological vestments of the prosperous classes. This approach has not simply made a mockery of traditional party ideals. It has also led to the serial financial bubbles and Wall Street depredations that have crippled our economy. More specifically, the new policy doctrines have caused four great deformations of the national economy, and modern Republicans have turned a blind eye to each one.
The first of these started when the Nixon administration defaulted on American obligations under the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement to balance our accounts with the world. Now, since we have lived beyond our means as a nation for nearly 40 years, our cumulative current-account deficit — the combined shortfall on our trade in goods, services and income — has reached nearly $8 trillion. That’s borrowed prosperity on an epic scale. It is also an outcome that Milton Friedman said could never happen when, in 1971, he persuaded President Nixon to unleash on the world paper dollars no longer redeemable in gold or other fixed monetary reserves. Just let the free market set currency exchange rates, he said, and trade deficits will self-correct. It may be true that governments, because they intervene in foreign exchange markets, have never completely allowed their currencies to float freely. But that does not absolve Friedman’s $8 trillion error. Once relieved of the discipline of defending a fixed value for their currencies, politicians the world over were free to cheapen their money and disregard their neighbors. In fact, since chronic current-account deficits result from a nation spending more than it earns, stringent domestic belt-tightening is the only cure. When the dollar was tied to fixed exchange rates, politicians were willing to administer the needed castor oil, because the alternative was to make up for the trade shortfall by paying out reserves, and this would cause immediate economic pain — from high interest rates, for example. But now there is no discipline, only global monetary chaos as foreign central banks run their own printing presses at ever faster speeds to sop up the tidal wave of dollars coming from the Federal Reserve. The second unhappy change in the American economy has been the extraordinary growth of our public debt. In 1970 it was just 40 percent of gross domestic product, or about $425 billion. When it reaches $18 trillion, it will be 40 times greater than in 1970. This debt explosion has resulted not from big spending by the Democrats, but instead the Republican Party’s embrace, about three decades ago, of the insidious doctrine that deficits don’t matter if they result from tax cuts. In 1981, traditional Republicans supported tax cuts, matched by spending cuts, to offset the way inflation was pushing many taxpayers into higher brackets and to spur investment. The Reagan administration’s hastily prepared fiscal blueprint, however, was no match for the primordial forces — the welfare state and the warfare state — that drive the federal spending machine. Soon, the neocons were pushing the military budget skyward. And the Republicans on Capitol Hill who were supposed to cut spending exempted from the knife most of the domestic budget — entitlements, farm subsidies, education, water projects. But in the end it was a new cadre of ideological tax-cutters who killed the Republicans’ fiscal religion. Through the 1984 election, the old guard earnestly tried to control the deficit, rolling back about 40 percent of the original Reagan tax cuts. But when, in the following years, the Federal Reserve chairman, Paul Volcker, finally crushed inflation, enabling a solid economic rebound, the new tax-cutters not only claimed victory for their supply-side strategy but hooked Republicans for good on the delusion that the economy will outgrow the deficit if plied with enough tax cuts. By fiscal year 2009, the tax-cutters had reduced federal revenues to 15 percent of gross domestic product, lower than they had been since the 1940s. Then, after rarely vetoing a budget bill and engaging in two unfinanced foreign military adventures, George W. Bush surrendered on domestic spending cuts, too — signing into law $420 billion in non-defense appropriations, a 65 percent gain from the $260 billion he had inherited eight years earlier. Republicans thus joined the Democrats in a shameless embrace of a free-lunch fiscal policy. The third ominous change in the American economy has been the vast, unproductive expansion of our financial sector. Here, Republicans have been oblivious to the grave danger of flooding financial markets with freely printed money and, at the same time, removing traditional restrictions on leverage and speculation. As a result, the combined assets of conventional banks and the so-called shadow banking system (including investment banks and finance companies) grew from a mere $500 billion in 1970 to $30 trillion by September 2008. But the trillion-dollar conglomerates that inhabit this new financial world are not free enterprises. They are rather wards of the state, extracting billions from the economy with a lot of pointless speculation in stocks, bonds, commodities and derivatives. They could never have survived, much less thrived, if their deposits had not been government-guaranteed and if they hadn’t been able to obtain virtually free money from the Fed’s discount window to cover their bad bets. The day of national reckoning has arrived. We will not have a conventional business recovery now, but rather a long hangover of debt liquidation and downsizing — as suggested by last week’s news that the national economy grew at an anemic annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. Under these circumstances, it’s a pity that the modern Republican Party offers the American people an irrelevant platform of recycled Keynesianism when the old approach — balanced budgets, sound money and financial discipline — is needed more than ever."
David Stockman, Director of the Office of Management and Budget under U.S. President Ronald Reagan.
Source: NY Times
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
A Pictoral of CDS's
These fancy, complex financial instruments called credit default swaps (CDS's) appear to be rearing their ugly head again. Check out the graphs below of 5 year prices.
"Sovereign debt default risk as measured by 5-year CDS prices has spiked for Hungary and the countries surrounding it today, but default risk for this region still remains well below levels seen in late 2008 and early 2009." Source: Bespoke
Entire article: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/6/4/crisis-moves-to-hungary.html
"Sovereign debt default risk as measured by 5-year CDS prices has spiked for Hungary and the countries surrounding it today, but default risk for this region still remains well below levels seen in late 2008 and early 2009." Source: Bespoke
Entire article: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/6/4/crisis-moves-to-hungary.html
Sunday, May 30, 2010
The End of The Keynesian Era
"In terms of the world, Greece has no economic meaning. Greece is way out in the decimals. Economic problems of California are certainly larger. Yet, no one is buying Gold because of the end of the California dream. No one is talking about the dissolution of the U.S. because of the economic collapse of California, Illinois, and New Jersey. Where Greece is important is in ending the decades of economic damage done by Keynesian dogma. Greece had become one of the great success stories for Keynesianism. The nation lived off of debt, and illusions of wealth. Borrowed money was used to pay government workers and reward pensioners after a few short years of work. Bond markets suddenly discovered that Greece may never be able on its own to repay that debt. Hyman Minsky would have referred to today’s governments as Ponzi borrowers. Bond market did as it should with near bankrupt Keynesian economies. It turned off the money. The panic, or crisis if there is one, is that governments across Europe, and the Obama Regime, can not accept the idea of markets disciplining governments. Imagine the panic in halls of government all around the world as politicians ponder governing without borrowed money with which to buy votes. Government debt is nothing more than legitimized vote buying by politicians. That, in fact, is the essence of Keynesian dogma, and it is the real crisis about which politicians are so concerned. Like all great economic crises, this one too will probably be a disappointment. Economic world will not end, though the economic fantasy land of Keynesianism may indeed wilt. That, however, will be on the back side of the crisis. Today we seem to still be on the front side of the crisis. Crises, like all hills, mole or real, have a front side and a back side. Front side is all emotional and panic filled. On the front side are created outrageous forecasts in order to spur web site traffic."
Source: Ned Schmidt, May 19, 2010
Source: Ned Schmidt, May 19, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Violence In Jamaica Mon
While Jamaica is economically insignificant on a worldwide scale, recent events align with the downward trend in mass social mood. The angry mob takes on the governments security forces. Thailand, Greece, and Jamaica are the most recent examples.
"At least 26 people were said to be dead after a third day of violence in Kingston, Jamaica, as security forces assaulted the slum stronghold of armed groups believed to be defending accused Jamaican drug lord Christopher "Dudus" Coke. Mr. Coke, the son of one of Jamaica's most influential gang leaders, is fighting extradition to the U.S., where he is wanted on drug and gun-trafficking charges. One member of the security forces had been killed and seven injured in the confrontation that broke out following Prime Minister Bruce Golding's decision to extradite Mr. Coke, according to local media reports. Mr. Golding, perhaps fearing violence, had wavered on the extradition, but issued a warrant for Mr. Coke's arrest last week. Soldiers were on guard in Kingston, Jamaica, Monday. Armed police and soldiers barged past barricades into the capital's most violent slums, clashing with defenders of a gang leader sought by the U.S. Shooting, looting and attacks on Jamaican police soon followed. On Sunday, the government declared a state of emergency."
Source: The Wall Street Journal
"At least 26 people were said to be dead after a third day of violence in Kingston, Jamaica, as security forces assaulted the slum stronghold of armed groups believed to be defending accused Jamaican drug lord Christopher "Dudus" Coke. Mr. Coke, the son of one of Jamaica's most influential gang leaders, is fighting extradition to the U.S., where he is wanted on drug and gun-trafficking charges. One member of the security forces had been killed and seven injured in the confrontation that broke out following Prime Minister Bruce Golding's decision to extradite Mr. Coke, according to local media reports. Mr. Golding, perhaps fearing violence, had wavered on the extradition, but issued a warrant for Mr. Coke's arrest last week. Soldiers were on guard in Kingston, Jamaica, Monday. Armed police and soldiers barged past barricades into the capital's most violent slums, clashing with defenders of a gang leader sought by the U.S. Shooting, looting and attacks on Jamaican police soon followed. On Sunday, the government declared a state of emergency."
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Paying The Greek Piper
The Greek's sent the US markets into a tailspin today! If you've been reading this blog, you first heard about Greece's problems on 12/12/2008.
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2008/12/opa.html
From Larry Edelson at Weiss Research:
"For decades now, reasonable people have warned that the European Union’s insane government spending and skyrocketing debt could not go on forever. The day would inevitably come when Europe would have to pay the piper. In Greece, that day is today! The nation is in absolute chaos: Hundreds of thousands of government workers are staging their third general strike of the year to protest the huge spending cuts the government must make to avoid defaulting on its debt. The entire country is paralyzed. Air traffic controllers, train and ferry operators, teachers and even shopkeepers have walked off of their jobs. Hospitals are working with emergency medical staff only. And despite the more than 1,500 police that have been deployed to prevent violence in Athens, there’s blood in the streets:
-A firebomb at an Athens bank killed at least three people yesterday.
-Young thugs are hurling gasoline bombs at stores, businesses and government buildings, setting fires throughout Athens.
-As many as 60,000 union demonstrators have attempted to storm the parliament building, hurling rocks at riot police, who pelted them with tear gas, stun grenades and baton charges.
-In Thessaloniki, 20,000 protesters marched through the city center, smashing the windows of stores and restaurants."
"THIS is what we’ve been warning you about. THIS is what a sovereign debt crisis looks like. THIS is the kind of chaos — and worse — that euro-zone leaders are now terrified will spread across the continent."
SOURCE: Weiss Research Inc.
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2008/12/opa.html
From Larry Edelson at Weiss Research:
"For decades now, reasonable people have warned that the European Union’s insane government spending and skyrocketing debt could not go on forever. The day would inevitably come when Europe would have to pay the piper. In Greece, that day is today! The nation is in absolute chaos: Hundreds of thousands of government workers are staging their third general strike of the year to protest the huge spending cuts the government must make to avoid defaulting on its debt. The entire country is paralyzed. Air traffic controllers, train and ferry operators, teachers and even shopkeepers have walked off of their jobs. Hospitals are working with emergency medical staff only. And despite the more than 1,500 police that have been deployed to prevent violence in Athens, there’s blood in the streets:
-A firebomb at an Athens bank killed at least three people yesterday.
-Young thugs are hurling gasoline bombs at stores, businesses and government buildings, setting fires throughout Athens.
-As many as 60,000 union demonstrators have attempted to storm the parliament building, hurling rocks at riot police, who pelted them with tear gas, stun grenades and baton charges.
-In Thessaloniki, 20,000 protesters marched through the city center, smashing the windows of stores and restaurants."
"THIS is what we’ve been warning you about. THIS is what a sovereign debt crisis looks like. THIS is the kind of chaos — and worse — that euro-zone leaders are now terrified will spread across the continent."
SOURCE: Weiss Research Inc.
Opa - Part 3
The Greeks continue rioting. As I've said before, the Tea Parties are a bunch of "white button downs" holding posters. My "favorite Republican" took his 10 year old son out of school to attend one. I told him that when the real protests arrive, you won't be taking the family. Stay tuned.
"In the U.S., the Tea Parties mentioned above were rather like, well, tea parties. In France, the demonstrations are large, but the tone is not yet violent. According to Time Magazine, millions marched in that country bu the disruption was a "comparatively modest nuisance.' In London, the "Financial Fools Day' protest against the G-20 was much larger and more focused than the April 2000 demonstration agains the IMF. And this time things turned ugly fast: 'At first, jazz bands, jugglers and drummers lent a carnival atmosphere to the gathering, but within an hour, anger at the collapse of the financial system turned to violence.' But the protest is a long way from the violent bear market finale that Elliott Wave Financial Forecast was referring to in 2000. At this point, the movement is just 'a vague attack on consumerism, coupled with anti-capitalist rhetoric,' which Daniel Finkelstein of the London Times points out is ' a total dead end,' revolution-wise. When the bottom is at hand or already in place, the rage will be greater and more widespreead, and there will be no question what the rebellion is about."
Robert Prechter - Elliott Wave Financial Forecast - April 2009
"In the U.S., the Tea Parties mentioned above were rather like, well, tea parties. In France, the demonstrations are large, but the tone is not yet violent. According to Time Magazine, millions marched in that country bu the disruption was a "comparatively modest nuisance.' In London, the "Financial Fools Day' protest against the G-20 was much larger and more focused than the April 2000 demonstration agains the IMF. And this time things turned ugly fast: 'At first, jazz bands, jugglers and drummers lent a carnival atmosphere to the gathering, but within an hour, anger at the collapse of the financial system turned to violence.' But the protest is a long way from the violent bear market finale that Elliott Wave Financial Forecast was referring to in 2000. At this point, the movement is just 'a vague attack on consumerism, coupled with anti-capitalist rhetoric,' which Daniel Finkelstein of the London Times points out is ' a total dead end,' revolution-wise. When the bottom is at hand or already in place, the rage will be greater and more widespreead, and there will be no question what the rebellion is about."
Robert Prechter - Elliott Wave Financial Forecast - April 2009
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Opa - Part 2
Greece continues to make the headlines. The EU is squabbling and this bankrupt country is seeking a bailout from the EU and the IMF. Wouldn't it be nice if the media provided some information leading up to these crises? It would be helpful to hear about the "tremors" before the "big quake" occurs.
Random Roving presented the case in December, 2008.
"The weakest fall first with more to follow. The onion gets peeled back one layer of a time."
Random Roving - March 6, 2009 - "Peeling Back The Onion"
Random Roving presented the case in December, 2008.
"The weakest fall first with more to follow. The onion gets peeled back one layer of a time."
Random Roving - March 6, 2009 - "Peeling Back The Onion"
Saturday, April 10, 2010
The Wall of Worry
On http://www.financialsense.com/, Kelley Wright makes an interesting case for market correction:
"The above notwithstanding, many in the punditry and on the sell side of Wall Street are trumpeting that investors are missing out on a new secular bull market by focusing too much on the ever present wall of worry. Let me tell you why I think they will rue the day. Germany is not going to come to the rescue of Greece, or any other country for that matter. In fact, I would suggest that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Europe's economic and monetary union as we know it. This will have consequences across the global financial markets. Recently signed health care legislation is a disaster for the US across many different fronts, the least of which is there still isn’t enough money to pay for it, which will result in a VAT tax and austerity initiatives; neither of which is pro-growth and drains consumption. State budgets are a mess; California is probably bankrupt. With unfunded pension liabilities into the hundreds of billions, not to mention the added costs of new health care mandates, the states will be the next group to line up for bailouts. Officially, unemployment is just below 10%. When looked at fully, however, the number is closer to 17%. People without a job do not consume; people worried about their job act in much the same way. The next change in trend for interest rates will most surely result in higher yields. While this may be a plus for coupon clippers, it will be a drain on those carrying consumer debts. Housing is still a mess. Commercial real estate loans are the next shoe to drop. So to those who think we are in a new secular bull market, I suggest you take off your rose colored glasses and look at bear market history. All major bear markets have had a similar pattern; three down legs interspersed by two, usually profitable, counter-trend rallies. If the present bear market began in 2000, the first down leg ended in late 2002. The first counter-trend rally topped in 2007 and the second leg down ended in March, 2009. So if history repeats a third leg waits out there. Is it chiseled in stone? Of course not; there is always the possibility that this time it is different."
"The above notwithstanding, many in the punditry and on the sell side of Wall Street are trumpeting that investors are missing out on a new secular bull market by focusing too much on the ever present wall of worry. Let me tell you why I think they will rue the day. Germany is not going to come to the rescue of Greece, or any other country for that matter. In fact, I would suggest that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Europe's economic and monetary union as we know it. This will have consequences across the global financial markets. Recently signed health care legislation is a disaster for the US across many different fronts, the least of which is there still isn’t enough money to pay for it, which will result in a VAT tax and austerity initiatives; neither of which is pro-growth and drains consumption. State budgets are a mess; California is probably bankrupt. With unfunded pension liabilities into the hundreds of billions, not to mention the added costs of new health care mandates, the states will be the next group to line up for bailouts. Officially, unemployment is just below 10%. When looked at fully, however, the number is closer to 17%. People without a job do not consume; people worried about their job act in much the same way. The next change in trend for interest rates will most surely result in higher yields. While this may be a plus for coupon clippers, it will be a drain on those carrying consumer debts. Housing is still a mess. Commercial real estate loans are the next shoe to drop. So to those who think we are in a new secular bull market, I suggest you take off your rose colored glasses and look at bear market history. All major bear markets have had a similar pattern; three down legs interspersed by two, usually profitable, counter-trend rallies. If the present bear market began in 2000, the first down leg ended in late 2002. The first counter-trend rally topped in 2007 and the second leg down ended in March, 2009. So if history repeats a third leg waits out there. Is it chiseled in stone? Of course not; there is always the possibility that this time it is different."
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Sierpinski's Triangle and The U.S. States
In February 2009, I made a post referencing Sierpinski's Triangle for a theory on the fractal nature of this calamity. The New York Times reports today about "the state of the States":
"California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay. And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that they, too, could face a debt crisis. New Hampshire was recently ordered by its State Supreme Court to put back $110 million that it took from a medical malpractice insurance pool to balance its budget. Colorado tried, so far unsuccessfully, to grab a $500 million surplus from Pinnacol Assurance, a state workers’ compensation insurer that was privatized in 2002. It wanted the money for its university system and seems likely to get a lesser amount, perhaps $200 million. Connecticut has tried to issue its own accounting rules. Hawaii has inaugurated a four-day school week. California accelerated its corporate income tax this year, making companies pay 70 percent of their 2010 taxes by June 15. And many states have balanced their budgets with federal health care dollars that Congress has not yet appropriated."
The entire article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/business/economy/30states.html
"California, New York and other states are showing many of the same signs of debt overload that recently took Greece to the brink — budgets that will not balance, accounting that masks debt, the use of derivatives to plug holes, and armies of retired public workers who are counting on benefits that are proving harder and harder to pay. And states are responding in sometimes desperate ways, raising concerns that they, too, could face a debt crisis. New Hampshire was recently ordered by its State Supreme Court to put back $110 million that it took from a medical malpractice insurance pool to balance its budget. Colorado tried, so far unsuccessfully, to grab a $500 million surplus from Pinnacol Assurance, a state workers’ compensation insurer that was privatized in 2002. It wanted the money for its university system and seems likely to get a lesser amount, perhaps $200 million. Connecticut has tried to issue its own accounting rules. Hawaii has inaugurated a four-day school week. California accelerated its corporate income tax this year, making companies pay 70 percent of their 2010 taxes by June 15. And many states have balanced their budgets with federal health care dollars that Congress has not yet appropriated."
The entire article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/business/economy/30states.html
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