Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Witches In Edinburgh

A few years ago, I had the exciting opportunity to travel to Edinburgh, Scotland for several business trips. It's one of my favorite cities in the world. My cousins, the Scots, are a great passionate people. Edinburgh is a great city with an incredible history. The castle towers over the city and shines brightly at night.

I was playing tourist one Saturday and took the tour of the castle. At one point on the tour, we were standing next to one of the walls looking over the edge and the tour guide stated "it was at this location over a ten year period that two hundred witches were thrown over the wall to their death in the bogg below." One of the tourists yelled "what happen to the witches after the tenth year?" The guide quickly responded "I guess that they all disappeared!"

It's interesting to watch "the shift" occur live. After crossing a significant inflection point in the year 2000, we have seen a downward trend in mass social mood. Aligned with this shift, we've seen many witch hunts. Suddenly there are witches everywhere! The SEC is chasing the bad guys. The CIA is chasing the bad guys. The U.S. military is chasing the bad guys. Right wing Christians are chasing the bad guys. The tea party protesters are chasing the bad guys. Rush, Sean, and Ann are chasing the bad guys. The amazing aspect is that when mass social mood is trending upward, the witches don't seem to be that bad. Ask Clinton, OJ, and Madoff about that.

If I could, I would ask the castle tour guide, where have all of these witches suddenly come from?

"Bear markets bring recrimimation. Practices that were routine during the bull market suddenly become vilified. We cannot say exactly who the culprits will be this time, but they will probably be some of the most successful and aggressive exploiters of the old uptrend. In the interest of justice, (and the enformcement of a whole new social mood), many will be punished. Investors are itching for a fight. Soon, charges of manipulation and the need for reform will be flooding out."
Robert Prechter, 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast
"There is clearly more such mayhem to come, and Congress and financial authorities of every stripe are hard at work preparing the tar and feathers. A big bear market in social mood always attaches itself to the reputations of those who rose highest in the preceding advance."
Robert Prechter - January 2009

No comments: