Dancing With The Sheeple

This blog can often serve as a confessional.  I must admit that my wife made me (yes) watch Dancing With The Stars with her.  As the kids say, "OMG".  Please bring on a root canal next time!  What will the anthropologists say in 100 years when they look back and examine our current culture??

You Are Here

Maybe it's the "geologist in me", but when I'm touring somewhere I always love the map with the "you are here" arrow. It quickly gives you a reference point and spatial context. Now sometimes on a long hike, I hate those maps because they quickly inform you that your current location is far from your ultimate destination!

I've presented the chart below several times. I was reviewing it again this morning and find the quotes from President Hoover so interesting. Was he in denial, dishonest, or a good leader attempting to keep the sheeple from stampeding. I don't know. I would guess that he was "in the know" and was attempting to stop the stampede. Unfortunately herding mammals move "in mass" and one individual usually can't stop the stampede.

I've annotated the chart with my own "you are here" arrow. I've referred to what I call the "head fake" before. On October 8, 2009 I made a detailed post on the topic and that prediction was dead on. The last market rally was exactly that. It lures us back it. The "Kool-Aid" was poured for one last drink. I believe that the final sprint has occurred.

Unfortunately for our 401-k's, but fortunately for mankind's future, I believe that we are in a downward slide until at least 2012. A likely bottom might even be in 2016. But, at the bottom, we experience our "great awakening". Stayed tuned mon amis.

Origin Of The Sheeple

If you've read this blog for some time, you know that I adore the term "sheeple".  I can't remember where I first heard it, but it just makes me laugh.  The mammalian nature of humans is sometimes comical.  The Google Elves even provided me with this great image.

I was at church Sunday, and this reading from John was read:

"When they had finished breakfast, Jesus said to Simon Peter, 'Simon, son of John, do you love me more than these?' He said to him, 'Yes, Lord, you know that I love you.' He said to him, 'Feed my lambs.'  He then said to him a second time, 'Simon, son of John, do you love me?' He said to him, 'Yes, Lord, you know that I love you.' He said to him, 'Tend my sheep.'  He said to him the third time, 'Simon, son of John, do you love me?' Peter was distressed that he had said to him a third time, 'Do you love me?' and he said to him, 'Lord, you know everything; you know that I love you.' (Jesus) said to him, 'Feed my sheep'."   John 21:15-17

So there you have it.  The term "sheeple" has biblical roots!

The Rooting of a Stampede

"One of the most dangerous aspects of this bear market rally is that virtually no one believes or understands that we are still operating within the context of a much longer-term secular bear market. Once this becomes obvious, the sheeple will begin to panic and the stampede will take root. This is in part why Phase II declines prove to be even more devastating than the initial Phase I decline."
Tim Wood - February 26, 2010

The Madness of Crowds

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Running With The Crowd

"Most predictions fall within a rather narrow range that does not deviate from consensus views in the financial community. In large measure, this reflects an all-too-human propensity to minimize risk and avoid isolation. There is, after all, comfort in running with the crowd. Doing so makes it impossible to be singled out for being wrong, and allows one to avoid envy or resentment that often inflicts those who are right more often than not."
Henry Kaufman's Memoirs