Saturday, August 21, 2010

You Are Here

Maybe it's the "geologist in me", but when I'm touring somewhere I always love the map with the "you are here" arrow. It quickly gives you a reference point and spatial context. Now sometimes on a long hike, I hate those maps because they quickly inform you that your current location is far from your ultimate destination!

I've presented the chart below several times. I was reviewing it again this morning and find the quotes from President Hoover so interesting. Was he in denial, dishonest, or a good leader attempting to keep the sheeple from stampeding. I don't know. I would guess that he was "in the know" and was attempting to stop the stampede. Unfortunately herding mammals move "in mass" and one individual usually can't stop the stampede.

I've annotated the chart with my own "you are here" arrow. I've referred to what I call the "head fake" before. On October 8, 2009 I made a detailed post on the topic and that prediction was dead on. The last market rally was exactly that. It lures us back it. The "Kool-Aid" was poured for one last drink. I believe that the final sprint has occurred.

Unfortunately for our 401-k's, but fortunately for mankind's future, I believe that we are in a downward slide until at least 2012. A likely bottom might even be in 2016. But, at the bottom, we experience our "great awakening". Stayed tuned mon amis.

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