"Believers in the fledgling recovery are ignoring some key facts. There are already 11 million homeowners underwater on their mortgages. As of March, banks had an inventory of about 1.1 million foreclosed homes, up 20% from a year earlier. Another 4.8 million mortgage holders were at least 60 days behind on their payments or in the foreclosure process. This “shadow inventory” was up 30% from a year earlier. At the current rate of sales, it would take banks nine years to clear this inventory. They are likely to increase the rate of sales as inventory continues to pile up. This will compel prices to go lower. Prices would fall even if a tsunami of Option ARM and Alt-A resets weren’t hurtling down the track – but they are. Beginning in June, a surge in resets will begin and not subside until late 2012. These liar loans were riddled with fraud, and the vast majority of these mortgagees will default after the reset. A surge in foreclosures is just over the horizon. Reversion to the mean cannot be circumvented. It can be delayed, but it will not be denied. "
James Quinn, The Burning Platform
"Casey Research presents the chart below. It confirms that we are in a "default lull" of the adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's). April 2010 will kick off the next round of chaos. June 2011 could be the peak. Buckle your chinstraps!"
Random Roving, February 14, 2010