The Crash Course - The Book

Way back in April 2009, I highly encouraged everyone to view Chris Martenson's "Crash Course".  Martenson has just released a book on the same topic.  I devoured it this weekend.  He's done an amazing job of quantifying the status of numerous key elements affecting our small world. I highly recommend reading it.

The Crash Course can be viewed at:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/

Another Steep Sandpile?

This sandpile sure is looking steep to me.  I compiled these on 2/10/11.

Derivatives & The Blob

I was flipping channels over the Thanksgiving holiday and stumbled upon the movie classic, "The Blob".  I had forgotten that this 1958 horror classic starred Steve McQueen.  I remember as a kid that this was the ultimate scary movie.  "The blob eats you alive!".

Reading an article on Bloomberg last night regarding financial derivatives reminded me of The Blob.  It just oozes along devouring everything in its path.  In the end, they froze The Blob and sent it to the Arctic for a permanent freeze.  How are we going to "freeze" these instruments that Buffet described as "weapons of mass destruction"?

"Global derivatives trading in over- the-counter and exchange-traded futures and options will represent a $700 trillion market with $3.7 quadrillion in annual turnover by the end of this year, research company TABB Group said.  Rules to have central clearing for over-the-counter trading would require additional collateral of as much as $2.2 trillion, Westborough, Massachusetts-based TABB said in a statement on its website, citing a report it completed at the request of the World Federation of Exchanges."
Source: Bloomberg

"The 'derivative monster' still lurks in these financial waters. Every contraction cycle needs a culprit. Derivatives will be the blame for this one."
Random Roving, July 3, 2010
 
"Puplava's risk comments are targeted at the significant amount of derivatives in the world.  His argument is that the risk can NOT be taken out. Many on Wall Street believe that great mathematical models can remove the risk. For a more thorough understanding of the crisis evolving...."             http://www.financialsense.com/series2/rogue.htm

Random Roving, March 27, 2003 (email era)

Sooner Or Later

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit and fiat monetary expansion. The only question is whether the crisis should come sooner in the form of a recession or later as a final and total catastrophe of depression as the currency systems crumble.”
Ludwig von Mises

The Journal Discovers The Swan

"After a decade-long bear market and two years of turmoil that saw the stock market plunge by 57%, investors are betting on still more financial pain in the months ahead.  Bond yields are near record lows. Gold continues to soar. And stocks are whipsawing as traders try to predict the direction of an economy that remains, in the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, 'unusually uncertain.' But not every investor is trembling with anxiety over the next financial blowup. Some are embracing the market's volatility—and constructing portfolios to profit from it.  A growing number of money managers and financial firms are rolling out investment products designed to exploit big declines known as 'black swan' events. Most of the products are geared toward institutional investors such as pension funds, endowments and high-net-worth families—but black-swan strategies are trickling down to Main Street as well. The term black swan was popularized in a 2007 best-selling book by author and investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It derives from the ancient belief, once widespread in the West, that all swans are white—a notion that was proven false when European explorers discovered black swans in Australia. The gist: Anything is possible. In fact, big surprises are more common than people think. In financial terms, a black swan usually results in drastic moves in the market—events such as the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the recent financial crisis. Statisticians call these events 'fat tails' (because they occur on the fringes, or tails, of a bell curve), while professional investors try to manage their 'tail risk.' The basic idea behind Mr. Taleb's black-swan strategy is to keep most of your money ultrasafe, and to bet a small portion—say 10%—on options contracts or other speculative bets whose prices will soar during a market panic."

"'The Black Swan' continues to be a hot 'buzzword' for the unpredictable rogue wave lurking out in the future."Random Roving, May 18, 2009

You Are Here

Maybe it's the "geologist in me", but when I'm touring somewhere I always love the map with the "you are here" arrow. It quickly gives you a reference point and spatial context. Now sometimes on a long hike, I hate those maps because they quickly inform you that your current location is far from your ultimate destination!

I've presented the chart below several times. I was reviewing it again this morning and find the quotes from President Hoover so interesting. Was he in denial, dishonest, or a good leader attempting to keep the sheeple from stampeding. I don't know. I would guess that he was "in the know" and was attempting to stop the stampede. Unfortunately herding mammals move "in mass" and one individual usually can't stop the stampede.

I've annotated the chart with my own "you are here" arrow. I've referred to what I call the "head fake" before. On October 8, 2009 I made a detailed post on the topic and that prediction was dead on. The last market rally was exactly that. It lures us back it. The "Kool-Aid" was poured for one last drink. I believe that the final sprint has occurred.

Unfortunately for our 401-k's, but fortunately for mankind's future, I believe that we are in a downward slide until at least 2012. A likely bottom might even be in 2016. But, at the bottom, we experience our "great awakening". Stayed tuned mon amis.

Bear Market Rally

"This bear market rally was indeed a huge affair. But still not out of the realms of former bear market rallies, which are mostly forgotten today. A prime example is the rally following the 1929 crash.  Stock prices rose more than 50 percent, and contemporary economists declared the crisis over. But the crash was only the prelude to the devastating bear market that got going after the bear market rally of early 1930."

 Claus Vogt, Weiss Research

An Update On The Headfake

On February 28, 2009, I made a post about the "head fake".  The timing of the call for the rally was quite good....three days prior.  The "head fake" could be approaching the end.  In Elliott Wave terms, the "C wave" is upon us.  From now to November should be a rocky road.  The election "hocus pocus" could present some facades and confusion.  Stay focused on the data.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (2006-2010)

Historical Relationships and 1/3, 2/3's

"This will in turn then put the market at great risk of a far more devastating decline than most anyone anticipates. The bottom line is that the Phase II decline is lurking and there is analysis and there are tools to help understand how the setup is unfolding. Just as I warned about the decline into 2002, the extended 4-year cycle into the 2007 top and even the 2008 top in commodities, few listened but later wished they had. You have been warned!"
Tim Wood, CPA - June 25, 2010

Source: Financial Sense Online, Tim Wood, CPA
Ever since the rally out of the March 2009 low began, I have maintained that it has been a bear market rally. All the while, the politicians think that their printing spree, bailout plans and stimulus packages have put a bottom in the economy. I continue to hear the talking heads on "CNBS" cheering on the public, and in their eyes all they can see is the so-called "double dip" recession. I’m sorry folks, but this is not a double dip recession. According to my analysis we have entered a global debt crisis in association with K-wave winter. Besides the purging of debt from the system, a by-product of K-wave winter is that we have also entered global bear markets in stocks and commodities. Based on my analysis, the rallies that began in early 2009 have not been associated with a recovery, but rather a reprieve of the ongoing deflationary forces of K-wave winter.

In accordance with Dow theory, bull and bear markets are divided into three phases with each of these phases separated by important counter-trend moves. The counter-trend moves separating these phases are very deceiving because people perceive them as being a resumption of the previously established longer term move rather than a counter-trend move within the newly established trend.

In the current case, most people perceive the 2009 low as THE bottom and the advance that has followed the March 2009 low as being a resumption of the advance that carried the markets into the 2007 highs. Based on the ongoing evidence associated with my analysis, this is not true. According to my analysis, 2007 marked the top of the 33 year longer-term bull market that ran between 1974 and 2007. Also according to my research the rally that has followed the 2009 low has been the deceitful counter-trend move that will ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of the much longer-term secular bear market. Historically, Phase II declines are the most devastating and I see no evidence that this time will be any different. I have discovered a very specific "DNA Marker" that has been associated with every major stock market top since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896. When all of the pieces of this DNA Marker are in place, the market will be at great risk of the resumption of the ongoing secular bear market and the decline into the Phase II low. Virtually no one understands the destruction that will follow in the wake of the Phase II decline. It is the reckoning of the seriousness of the situation associated with Phase II declines that make them so devastating.

As was seen during the Phase I decline, everyone will again turn to the government to "fix" the problem. Funny thing is, the government was instrumental in causing the problem in the first place. Furthermore, the appearance that the government created the bottom in 2009 is an elusion. The government does not know any more about fixing the economy than they do about fixing the oil leak in the Gulf. All the government can do is spend more money and create more red tape. The best thing that could happen would be for the government to stand back and let the free markets do what they will eventually do anyway. Based on the historical relationships between long-term secular bull and bear markets, the bear markets tend to run about one third the duration of the preceding bull market. Thus, with us less than 3 years from the 2007 high, this secular bear market has much further to run. Based on the historical relationships a bottom is not likely due until late in the current decade. For more on historical bull and bear market relationships please refer to the April 30th Market Observation.

From a Dow theory perspective, the bullish primary trend change associated with the bear market rally still remains intact. According to Dow theory, confirmation of a primary trend change requires a joint move above or below a previous secondary high or low point. This has not yet occurred. But, when it does and if the DNA Marker that I have identified at every major top since 1896 is also confirmed, then at that time the DNA Marker will serve to validate Dow theory. This will in turn then put the market at great risk of a far more devastating decline than most anyone anticipates. The bottom line is that the Phase II decline is lurking and there is analysis and there are tools to help understand how the setup is unfolding. Just as I warned about the decline into 2002, the extended 4-year cycle into the 2007 top and even the 2008 top in commodities, few listened but later wished they had. You have been warned!

The Straw And The Last Truck

I've made many references over the past few years to Nassim Taleb and "The Black Swan". I believe that watching this video is the best 12:21 minutes that you can spend today.



The best $11.16 that you can spend today:
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1276175547&sr=8-1

Thanks JHD for the find!