Weiss Research and The Double Dip

Weiss Research presents six reasons that they believe that a double-dip recession is hitting the U.S.:
-First, the economic rebound since March 2009 was bought with unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. There has not been a real, market-generated recovery.
-Second, despite the huge sums of taxpayer money and serial bailouts, the rebound is the weakest on record.
-Third, at least 80 percent of this huge stimulus program has been used up. There isn't much left to keep the economic engines running.
-Fourth, aside from government debt, the wheels of credit creation are still sputtering. And that's a problem, since former recoveries have always been driven by credit growth.  Last week's employment report spells bad news for retailers.
-Fifth, the labor market is still in dire straits — and so is consumer spending. Friday's disappointing payroll report is a very strong hint that the labor market is again deteriorating. Following the ECRI data, this is not surprising. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between the ECRI weekly index and payroll numbers. Furthermore, I expect much weaker employment reports in the weeks and months to come.
-Sixth, the housing mess has not been cleaned up yet. I expect another huge wave of mortgage debt defaults, leading to another round of falling home prices and problems for the banking sector.

http://www.weissgroupinc.com/research/index.html

The Quasi Maestro

The Great Maestro speaks again.  He might have coined another new economic term, "quasi recession".

"The dollar traded near its weakest since November against the yen on signs the U.S. recovery is losing momentum and after Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the slowdown feels like a 'quasi recession.' The U.S. economy might contract again if home prices decline, Greenspan said in an interview on NBC’s 'Meet the Press' yesterday. 'We’re in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery, but a pause in the modest recovery feels like a quasi- recession,' he said."

Source: Bloomberg

Shiller's Animal Spirits

Robert Shiller on the state of the human mind and "what drives the whole thing".

"Economist don't like to speak about psychology. We believe that it's fundamental."
Robert Shiller

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Robert%20Shiller%20Says%20U.S.%20Stocks%20Are%20%60Highly%20Priced%27&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vy_Xh4x29aRg.asf