Feeding The Hog

"All policies target consumption. That is a mistake."
Marc Faber

Fools & Fanatics

“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.”
Bertrand Russell

India's Golden Acquisition

From Bloomberg:
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "India, the world’s biggest gold consumer, bought 200 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund for $6.7 billion as central banks show increased interest in diversifying their holdings to protect against a slumping dollar.

The transaction, equivalent to 8 percent of world annual mine production, was the IMF’s first such sale in nine years and propels India to the ninth-biggest government owner globally, according to figures from London-based research company GFMS Ltd. The country previously held 358 tons, the data show."

The entire article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aa6oc6Wz9Ftg

The Truth About Afghanistan

From F. William Engdahl:
"The second reason the US military remains in Afghanistan long after the world has forgotten even who the mysterious Osama bin Laden and his alleged Al Qaeda terrorist organization is or even if they exist, is as a pretext to build a permanent US military strike force with a series of permanent US airbases across Afghanistan. The aim of those bases is not to eradicate any Al Qaeda cells that may have survived in the caves of Tora Bora, or to eradicate a mythical “Taliban” which at this point according to eyewitness reports is made up overwhelmingly of local ordinary Afghanis fighting to rid their land once more of occupier armies as they did in the 11980’s against the Russians. The aim of the US bases in Afghanistan is to target and be able to strike at the two nations which today represent the only combined threat in the world today to an American global imperium, to America’s Full Spectrum Dominance as the Pentagon terms it."

"Afghanistan has historically been the heartland for the British-Russia Great Game, the struggle for control of Central Asia during the 19th and early 20th Centuries. British strategy then was to prevent Russia at all costs from controlling Afghanistan and thereby threatening Britain’s imperial crown jewel, India."

"Afghanistan is similarly regarded by Pentagon planners as highly strategic. It is a platform from which US military power could directly threaten Russia and China, as well as Iran and other oil-rich Middle East lands. Little has changed geopolitically over more than a century of wars."

The entire article:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2009/1021.html

The Colts & The Saints

My two favorite NFL teams are 8-0. Go Saints, Go Colts! What a Superbowl that would be. I don't want to jinx the Saints.............

"But remember I predict a Super Bowl victory for the Saints next season!" Random Roving - 11/7/08

"Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!!" Random Roving - 10/1/08

The Tiny World of Gold

One of the astonishing findings that I discovered is how small the worldwide physical gold market is. The chart below provides great perspective.



SOURCE: The Long Wave Analyst

The Man Under The Hood

Just prior to the kickoff at our high school football game last night, the announcer asked for a moment of silence for the deceased and the families affected by the tragedy at Ft. Hood yesterday. I had yet to hear about the event and was clueless to the purpose of the moment.

God bless the souls of the lost, the wounded, and their families. Having experienced something similar in my youth, I can feel for these families. How quickly life can change. It's always perplexing when one decides to take the innocent down with them. These type of events have become way too commonplace these days. We're not numb to it, but we are no longer shocked by it.

This morning on the news, the fact that the murderer was Muslim caught my attention. I immediately thought "Team Red is going to have a field day with this one!". Thirty minutes later in the car commuting to the office, the radio already had Bubba calling in saying that the Houston Ship Channel had cargo boats pulling into port every night with terrorists hidden on board. He went on to say that there are hundreds of them huddled up in hotels planning their next event. Glenn and Sean are going to have a busy day on the radio!

Xenophobia continues to rise at an alarming rate. I would hope that someone would do the research to show that out of the past 20 similar events, none of the gunslingers were Muslims. We might be shocked to find out that many of these murderers claimed Jesus Christ as their Savior. I still predict that the next major event on U.S. soil will be done by a white man with bible in hand.

Zooming out to the larger view, it's troubling to continue to see these events play out in a downward trending mass social mood cycle. As the "tide lowers", some struggle emotionally for survival. Whether it's a lost job or already fragile relationships, the notch moves to the next lower level. As Warren Buffet once said, "When the tide lowers, we'll see who has been skinny dipping.". Of course Mr. Buffet was speaking about financial skinny dipping, but I believe his metaphor can be applied to ones emotional and psychological state.

Scanning the TV channels in the hotel room the other night, I caught the beginning of the movie "Mississippi Burning". This movie is so well done, the acting is superb, and it depicts this true story to a deep level. The fascinating aspect of the story for me is the fact that so many people, black and white, on both sides cowered because of fear. The blacks were too fearful to turn in the white supremacist murderers. The white individuals, who in their heart did not believe in "the cause", were too fearful to go against the majority. In the end, it's the aggressive whites against the brave blacks that make the final stand. Like all conflicts, losers are found on both sides.

As this cycle continues downward, it will be important to know what you believe in. You will be challenged to stand up for what you believe in whatever that is. When you see the cowardly hooded white man on horseback heading down the road, what are you going to do about it?

The Worst Case Scenario

"When governments are confronted with dreadful domestic problems and faced with lack of oil supply, a foreign enemy will materialize who just happens to have vast amounts of oil. Since the supply of oil will be just as restricted for China and other Far East countries, there is likely to be armed conflict. Once war begins, no one can predict which direction it will go. If it spirals out of control, nuclear annihilation is a possibility. The collapse of the U.S. dollar would result in millions of Americans being financially wiped out. Millions of angry Americans with no gasoline and no money might get unruly. The possibility of civil war will be high. Will the American military fire on American citizens? The ruling elite will order the military to attack the riff-raff, but they risk the military turning their guns on them. The greatest risk in this scenario is that Americans turn to a strong leader who assumes dictatorial power in the guise of safety and security." James Quinn

Charity Is Alive and Well

This one is really amazing. Charity appears to be alive and well!

"Seven bicycles used by Lance Armstrong in his comeback season for July’s Tour de France fetched $1.3 million at an auction to raise money for his cancer foundation." Source: Bloomberg

The Definition of Insanity

Mr. Bernanke, did you know that.......
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”
Albert Einstein

How About These Apples!

For those who took the gold recommendations and entered the new world of commodities, congratulations. Looks like the "shiny coin" is for real. $1000 appears to have been that magical psychological barrier.

"Most importantly, it is NOT TOO LATE to re-model your portfolio. Remember, some jumped in lifeboats off of the Titantic. Some boarded early and some late, but those that did, saved their lives."
Random Roving - March 27, 2009

The "reverse head & shoulders" is playing out according to the textbook:

http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/07/shiny-coin.html

A review of the Dow/Gold Ratio:

http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/02/dow-jones-industrial-average-gold-ratio_22.html

http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/02/dow-jones-industrial-average-gold-ratio_9935.html

Remember what Mr. Faber said:

http://randomroving.blogspot.com/2009/10/golden-purchase.html

Another Dose of Non-Reality

"In the end, this stimulus, just like prior doses, will only worsen the condition it is meant to cure. When it wears off, the resulting recession will be even bigger than the one that everyone assumes has just ended. Until the impulse to fight recessions with government stimulus is quashed, genuine economic growth will never return. A string of ever-worsening recessions will eventually lead to what will be the next Great (Inflationary) Depression. But for now, enjoy the bubbly."
Peter Schiff

Entire article:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/1030.html

Follow The Leader

"Instill fear in a panicked public and they will follow their leader, regardless of how shallow the reasoning or how big the lie."
Gerald Celente

Meaning Of This Moment

Ms. Noonan "nails it" once again. I continue to read her articles and believe that she has an amazing "pulse" on the mood of the masses. She doesn't use Prechter's "mass social mood" terminology, but she's talking about the same thing.

"The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren't rising, they're bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we're entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They'll miss the meaning of this moment, too. The biggest threat to America right now is not government spending, huge deficits, foreign ownership of our debt, world terrorism, two wars, potential epidemics or nuts with nukes. The biggest long-term threat is that people are becoming and have become disheartened, that this condition is reaching critical mass, and that it afflicts most broadly and deeply those members of the American leadership class who are not in Washington, most especially those in business."

'When I see those in government, both locally and in Washington, spend and tax and come up each day with new ways to spend and tax—health care, cap and trade, etc.—I think: Why aren't they worried about the impact of what they're doing? Why do they think America is so strong it can take endless abuse? I think I know part of the answer. It is that they've never seen things go dark. They came of age during the great abundance, circa 1980-2008 (or 1950-2008, take your pick), and they don't have the habit of worry. They talk about their "concerns"—they're big on that word. But they're not really concerned. They think America is the goose that lays the golden egg. Why not? She laid it in their laps. She laid it in grandpa's lap. They don't feel anxious, because they never had anything to be anxious about. They grew up in an America surrounded by phrases—"strongest nation in the world," "indispensable nation," "unipolar power," "highest standard of living"—and are not bright enough, or serious enough, to imagine that they can damage that, hurt it, even fatally. We are governed at all levels by America's luckiest children, sons and daughters of the abundance, and they call themselves optimists but they're not optimists—they're unimaginative. They don't have faith, they've just never been foreclosed on. They are stupid and they are callous, and they don't mind it when people become disheartened. They don't even notice."
Peggy Noonan

The entire article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703363704574503631430926354.html

Democrats on Geico

"The Democrats seem to be the kind of people that switch to Geico and lose money."
Jon Stewart - The Daily Show