Occupy Destruction

For a long time I noted that when the tear gas appeared we will have entered a new level of the contraction.  That occurred last year. Check.  With the recent events in Oakland by the Occupy Movement, I believe we've entered the next "tick down" with protestors causing destruction of property.

"Officials surveyed damage Sunday from a volatile Occupy protest that resulted in hundreds of arrests the day before and left the historic City Hall vandalized after demonstrators broke into the building, smashed display cases, cut electrical wires and burned an American flag.  Police placed the number of arrests at about 400 from Saturday's daylong protest — the most contentious since authorities dismantled the Occupy Oakland encampment late last year."
Source: The Chicago Tribune

Silvio & JoePa

Many websites report the news and regurgitate the Associated Press. Here my goal is to attempt to connect the dots. So, linking Italy's PM and college football coach Joe Paterno means what?

One of the core themes of this blog is that humans herd and subsequently create cycles of "mass" behavior through history. This can be observed in financial markets, war cycles, politics, fashion, pop culture, and many other categories.

We all know that the recent events at Penn State are a tragedy. What's significant to me is how quickly legendary coach Joe Paterno was terminated. He is guilty in part, but lets face it, he didn't perform the hideous crimes. The conclusion is, during contracting cycles where mass social mood dominates in "fearful and angry", icons fall quickly. The mob moves quickly and topples the ones that once stood on a pedestal. In contrast, during expansion cycles, icons survive great controversies. Bill Clinton's sexual encounter with a young intern might be the best example of all time. Many still believe that he was one of the greatest presidents of all time. Well timed bad behavior.

Jumping across "the pond", Italy's Prime Minister is sacked after serving 17 years in office.  Do the people of Italy really believe that putting a new person in office immediately solves the debt crisis?  No, they are just angry and "lynching" feels good.  Many more leaders and icons will tumble.  Libya might be a great microcosm where one asks the question "ok, now what?".

"Silvio Berlusconi dominated Italy for 17 years with a unique mix of political talent and brazen behavior but in the end the born showman was humiliatingly jeered from office, brought down by pressure from abroad.  Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi formally resigned on Saturday, ending one of the most scandal-plagued eras in recent Italian history amid the jeers of hundreds of protestors gathered in central Rome to celebrate his departure."
Source: Reuters

"The “mob” has emerged and they’re seeking someone to lynch."
Random Roving, June 30, 2008

Occupy What?

Jimmy Kimmel might have summed up the "Occupy Movement" when he captured "Occupy Wall Street" protestors saying this, "What do we want? We're not really sure! When do we want it? Now!"

Fear and anger without any direction or leadership might not progress far.  An angry leader has to appear. Stay tuned.

The Fury

"The mob doesn't think. It has no mind of its own."
Joe Wilson (Spencer Tracy's character in "The Fury")

The French Join The Trend

Last month it was the Spaniards, now the French rise up.

"After days of rail disruption, unions are putting on the pressure before Wednesday’s Senate vote on President Nicolas Sarkozy’s unpopular pension reforms. He is refusing to back down over a two-year retirement age hike, but so too are the unions.  Didier Le Reste of the CGT union warned of more strike action.  The start of the week will see a widening of the strike, with more sustained action in sectors such as road transport, energy, postal and telecommunications and public service and commerce,” he said.  Fears that the two major airports in Paris could run out of fuel in the next 48 hours have been dispelled by the government despite blockades at France’s 12 refineries. However supply shortages could hit elsewhere by mid-week with depots in the south west already depleted by an unrelated stoppage."
Source: Euronews
 
"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'."

Random Roving, November 24, 2009, "Three Strikes You're Out"

Now That's What I'm Talkin' Bout

And the Tea Party is fired up about 86,000 people at the Glenn Beck "love-fest"???  The French are leading the charge.

"In the fourth such protest in a little over a month, unions estimated that 3.5 million people had taken to the streets against President Nicolas Sarkozy's pension bill – a 20 per cent rise from previous marches and what they called an 'exceptional' figure."
Source: Telegraph UK

Now we're starting to talk about something tangible!

"In a downward trending mass social mood, it's very likely that labor strikes will become very popular again. We might even see a professional sports strike in the next few years. An angry mob loves a strike and a picket line. The cycle will likely bring unions back to strength as fear and anger 'drives the herd closer together'."
Random Roving, "Three Strikes You're Out", November 29, 2009

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt

"Fear, uncertainty and doubt will remain as long as consumers and executives lack confidence in the economic outlook of the United States. The psychological affect of the FUD factor remains a major hurdle to overcome. So far, everyone fears the worst, is uncertain about the future and doubts much can be done to make the situation better. We are in for a slow growth economy for some time. As investors we need to adjust our sails to deal with these difficult conditions."
Hans Wagner, CEO, Trading Online Markets LLC

Mass Social Mood Model

Gold Supply

" I think in order to properly characterize what’s happening in the industry, it's important to start from a big-picture perspective, which is that by and large the masses in this country are not involved in precious metals. In my experience, the move we've seen in gold over the last decade has primarily been from international investment – sovereign wealth funds in the Orient, petrodollars in the Middle East, India buying from the IMF, Russia and Japan accumulating, etc. If you factor in that very, very few people in this country have even held a gold coin – let alone own any gold, or understand the reasons to own it, or will even accept the arguments for owning it – I think the primary distinguishing characteristic of this market will be that people won’t be able to get product when they want it. The rising price in and of itself will not be the main hurdle. For the most part, people will overcome price, because they’ll want to own it. The real issue will be getting product in a timely fashion, and that will become difficult for the average American. People are afraid. They’re afraid of what's happening geopolitically, economically, fiscally, and want to hold on to their gold. As they should, because this is exactly the kind of circumstance gold is for. So I would argue that as gold and silver creep higher, there will be more and more buying and less and less selling. And less selling means less product for buyers. People are afraid. They’re afraid of what's happening geopolitically, economically, fiscally, and want to hold on to their gold. As they should, because this is exactly the kind of circumstance gold is for. So I would argue that as gold and silver creep higher, there will be more and more buying and less and less selling. And less selling means less product for buyers. Junk silver bags are becoming much harder to get. And I think the higher gold goes, the faster silver will disappear.Acquire as many gold and silver ounces as you can. In the end it’s not about price paid, it's about number of ounces. View the supply issue as critically as you would the price, because I believe that more than anything else, the lack of available supply will mark this industry."
Andy Schectman - Miles Franklin (Interview with Casey Research)

Chaos In Kyrgyzstan

The mob obtains a victory in Kyrgyzstan.

The Boogeyman Strikes Again!

Well, the Boogeyman struck again.

"The Qatari diplomat who caused a midair security scare won't face charges after claiming he was trying to light his shoes on fire when it appears he was simply smoking in the bathroom. Passenger onboard United Airlines flight apparently tried to sneak a smoke. More PhotosFederal officials said Mohammed al Modadi was on official business when he boarded United Airlines Flight 663 from Washington to Denver, giving him diplomatic immunity. A law firm spokesman told The Associated Press that al Modadi has been released and was headed back to Washington."
Source: ABC News

Sipping Tea

The Huffington Post reports:

"Abusive, derogatory and even racist behavior directed at House Democrats by Tea Party protesters on Saturday left several lawmakers in shock. Preceding the president's speech to a gathering of House Democrats, thousands of protesters descended around the Capitol to protest the passage of health care reform. The gathering quickly turned into abusive heckling, as members of Congress passing through Longworth House office building were subjected to epithets and even mild physical abuse. A staffer for Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told reporters that Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) had been spat on by a protestor. Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), a hero of the civil rights movement, was called a 'ni--er.' And Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) was called a 'faggot,' as protestors shouted at him with deliberately lisp-y screams. Frank, approached in the halls after the president's speech, shrugged off the incident. But Clyburn was downright incredulous, saying he had not witnessed such treatment since he was leading civil rights protests in South Carolina in the 1960s. 'It was absolutely shocking to me,' Clyburn said, in response to a question from the Huffington Post. 'Last Monday, this past Monday, I stayed home to meet on the campus of Claflin University where fifty years ago as of last Monday... I led the first demonstrations in South Carolina, the sit ins... And quite frankly I heard some things today I have not heard since that day. I heard people saying things that I have not heard since March 15, 1960 when I was marching to try and get off the back of the bus.'"

"As this cycle continues downward, it will be important to know what you believe in. You will be challenged to stand up for what you believe in whatever that is. When you see the cowardly hooded white man on horseback heading down the road, what are you going to do about it?"
Random Roving, "The Man Under The Hood" - November 9, 2009

Heeding The Council

"I never heed the council of my fears."

General George S. Patton

Extreme Xenophobia

Xenophobia continues at extreme levels.

Loud prayers spark airliner security scare
Suspected nervous flier quizzed after U.S. Airways flight is diverted
"A U.S. Airways jet was diverted to Philadelphia International Airport Thursday after crew members became nervous about a passenger praying loudly. There were initial reports that a man may have been wired with "a device" and the bomb squad, FBI and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials all attended. However, when authorities boarded Flight 3079 from LaGuardia Airport to Louisville, they established there was no bomb on board. A man was escorted off the plane by law enforcement officers while the other passengers also disembarked. Government sources told NBC News the flight was diverted because the passenger who may have been a nervous flier was praying loudly which alarmed members of the flight crew. NBC News also reported that the passenger was holding 'some type of religious item' and that the flight was diverted out of an "abundance of caution."

The Sound of Hooves On The Pavement

The word "change" has returned in the political arena. As I stated before the presidential election, it's a battle between the two mass social mood emotions: "fear" and "anger". Anger won out in that election even though Team Red got very aggressive with fear at the end (e.g. "he's not even a US citizen!", "he's the anti-Christ").

Mass. Voters: It Was Time For Change
Brown Election A Signal To Washington, State Democrats
BOSTON -- "Massachusetts election of its first Republican to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades may have sent political shock waves reverberating through Washington, but Scott Brown's big win may not have been much of a surprise to Bay State voters, many of whom said it simply signals their hunger for change. Brown, 50, a little-known GOP state senator from Wrentham, Mass., staged an epic upset Tuesday when he beat an entrenched Democratic party attorney general, Martha Coakley, to grab the Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy for 47 years."
Source: WCVB Boston

It wasn't truly an incumbent election, but it was a significant "incumbent position".

"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving - January 1, 2010

"But hubris has yielded to shock here at the possibility that the next political trend the Bay State might foreshadow is a voter backlash against the Democratic Party. That election, which will be held on Tuesday, was widely seen as a formality. Are we in for another shot heard 'round the world? Perhaps. More likely, listen for the sound of horse hooves on the pavement, and a modern-day version of Paul Revere's historic warning—the backlash is coming."
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Technological Stress

I made a reference to this article a couple of weeks ago. The contributor has a very interesting perspective on the intertwining aspects of technology, mass social mood, and the rapidly changing world. He seems to align with the interpretation of 1999 beginning the "fear and anger" cycle.

"The question is: Will we be able to move beyond this decade of anxiety?The new millennium looked as it was off to an edgy start in 2000 with mass paranoia about the Y2K bug infecting the world’s computers. After that scare fizzled out, an actual disaster struck, driving panic into the hearts of many in the West: The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C. The collective mood of the first decade of this millennium has been, in some ways, coloured by the reactions to this unprecedented and savage attack on U.S. terrain. Fear has been the decade’s dominant theme, leading leaders in many countries to use technology to expand their military might, their spy networks and their “security.” With 2010 arriving next month, many are wondering whether the “war on terror” and all that’s gone with it has accomplished much. For one thing, fewer people than ever seem to feel secure."

The entire article:
http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/thesearch/archive/2009/12/02/20-powerful-trends-go-with-us-into-next-decade.aspx

Power Seizes Fear

“Fearful people are more dependent, more easily manipulated and controlled, more susceptible to deceptively simple, strong, tough measures and hard-line postures. ... They may accept and even welcome repression if it promises to relieve their insecurities.” George Gerber

Father David Kirk On Just War

Being Holy Week, I'll take a breather from the crazy events in the world and present some writings from Father David Kirk.

"In the first 300 years of Christianity, Christians fought adversaries only with the Sword of the Spirit. When later the Christian communities of the Roman Empire seemed threatened by invading vandals and barbarians, a bishop, Augustine, had to meditate on which way to go: continue the churches teaching to 'love the enemy,' to do violence to no enemy, to not join the army? Or to find a way whereby Christian could take up the sword and fight the vandals?"

"Fear covered the empire like a black cloud. The problem of how to love your enemies and do violence to them led to his theory of a just war. He took as his example how Israel had been defended by armies. If God himself can start a war, it had to be a just one....the Kingdom of the Spirit had once more been reduced to the lowest common denominator. Of course, we do fear. All have fears within us. There are a lot of things which are part of reality, a fear to be lived with - subways, sickness, old age, private betrayals. I'm certainly scared of a lot of things inside me - lust...jealousy...anger, all biding their time in me, perhaps waiting for a weak moment. Scared of the possibility I might not have the stuff within me to follow the direction I have set for myself. How impossible the goals of truth and love sometimes seem to be."
Father David Kirk

For more on Father David Kirk:
http://www.fatherdavidkirk.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Father_David_Kirk

http://emmaushouse-harlem.org/

My Email to Billy Boy and The Factor

It's painful to watch, but I have to admit that, on occasion, I watch the O'Reilly Factor. I find the man to be angry and spiteful. In October, 2007 after he called my musical hero, Bruce Springsteen, unpatriotic, I had to send him an email. Here it is.....

Billy-Boy,
I’ve watched your show for years and felt compelled so many times to send you a note, but your assault on Bruce motivated me to finally write. I should state that I claim no political party. All media channels appear to have bias, so one must watch several to get a balanced perspective. So a mix of Fox news, the NY Times, CNN, and NPR make an interesting blend. Your totally arrogant stating that individuals have to appear on YOUR show. When did you become the TV-god? Stating that you will donate $25,000 to Habitat for Humanity is such a farce. Bruce appearing on your show would provide Fox the opportunity to sell commercials at Super Bowl rates. $25,000 donation……give me a break. Your ratings would skyrocket even more! No one reports to you. Bruce for forty years has consistently written and sung about what he feels in his heart and ponders in his mind. He’s always had the courage to release music that was not what the mainstream wanted to hear. Whether it was the darkness on Nebraska, the pain in Streets of Philadelphia, the reality of American Skin or Dead Man Walkin’, or his perception of our country on Magic. You state that he is misleading the younger voters.
He has the right to his opinion just as you do. If people don’t like it, they don’t buy his CD or attend his concert. His business is about direct feedback. Your problem is that people are buying his “spin”. His problem is that people are buying your “spin”. You see, that’s the beauty of a free country.
Billy-Boy, you continue to mislead the evangelical/Republican babyboomers. You spit venom and spread hatred.

In the “up” cycle (1982-2000), you media mongers sold “greed”. Remember the euphoric ending (aka DotCom). Now in the early stages of the “down” cycle, you sell “fear”. Fear of muslims. Fear of Mexicans. Fear that our house value will drop in half. Xenophobia is a powerful force in the down cycle and you are fueling it as much as anybody. Why didn’t you care about illegal Mexicans in 1995? If you believe that the U.S. is in the business of removing evil dictators than why aren’t we in Iran, N. Korea, and Venezuela. If we are good Samaritans, why aren’t we in Darfur/Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

The interesting point regarding mass social mood is that two years into the “up” cycle (1984) Bruce released the album, Born in the USA. The title song ironically was misconstrued to be a national anthem when it really was a song about how poorly our Vietnam veterans were treated. Wikipedia states the following “Yet more notably, the widely-read, bow-tied conservative columnist George Will, after attending a show, published on September 13, 1984 a piece entitled "A Yankee Doodle Springsteen" in which he praised Springsteen as an exemplar of classic American values. He wrote: ‘I have not got a clue about Springsteen's politics, if any, but flags get waved at his concerts while he sings songs about hard times. He is no whiner, and the recitation of closed factories and other problems always seems punctuated by a grand, cheerful affirmation: 'Born in the U.S.A.!'.”
You see, in the “up” cycle we see the bright side of things. Now in the “down” cycle MAGIC is construed to be anti-American and unpatriotic. A very interesting psychology experiment.

Billy-Boy, on another note, Iraq and global warming are about the same thing, overconsumption. No one wants to talk about that because then we all are guilty. Al Gore in his many houses is guilty. Bill O’Reilly is guilty. I am guilty. As you know, we’re in Iraq for strategic reasons…..to control the oil output from the Middle East. Afghanistan provided a great landing base. Iraq provides great oil reserves and proximity to Iran. Please be honest. Yes, it was about WMD’s, but those of another kind: weapons of mass depletion. As a country that represents 5% of the world’s population, we consume 25% of its resources. That’s just irresponsible. Why don’t you spend a week focusing on US consumption. Have Jared Diamond as a guest (author of Guns, Germs, and Steel; Collapse). Or maybe have Richard Heinberg (The Party’s Over; Peak Everything).
Historically, conflict between cultures is sourced in resources or religion. The current and coming years provide an alignment of both. Stay tuned. You’ll have a lot more interesting topics to talk about than assaulting iconic rock stars.

Mr. O’Neill, you are subject to external forces much greater than yourself. Your selling what the mobs currently seek and feel…….FEAR.

I’ve purposely made this response long so that you can selectively edit and combine to make your point seem valid.
Enjoy!