Friday, April 17, 2009

Early Signs of Change - The Premature Evacuation

As I've mentioned in the past, I exited this market originally in May, 2000.....what I call my "premature evacuation"! I dove back in October-2007 with a commodites focus (oil/natural gas/gold/silver). The gold/silver half has recovered, but the energy piece is still hurting.

This blog really started in that time period via email with my inner circle of friends. As the Dotcom meltdown evolved, things didn't smell right. My friend Mark and I engaged in some great discussions regarding these topics.

-----Original Message-----
From: Kirk Barrell []
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 8:38 AM
To: Mark R.
Subject: RE: markets

Implosion is the only word I think of when I read the news in the morning. At this point, even trailing earnings are in question due to the bogus numbers. So do we even know what the PE's are? I told Michelle this weekend, it's kind of like it used to be in the airport when you arrived early and you sat there and watched all of the "latecomers" running to their flights. My advice is to sit back and watch things unfold. If I had some cash outside of retirement accounts I would be shorting and buying gold (the real stuff).

It's amazing to watch all of the witchhunts going on....CEO's, accountants, priests, American Talibans, baseball players on sterioids, and poor Martha Stewart! Is Oprah next!?!?! My greatest concern is real estate. I think that we bought our house close to the top. I like to think (or hope) that our area has a good foundation, but the first tremor could be the HP cuts this week.

Long term, I really like the oil patch. Supply/demand and the Middle East bode well for this sector. In the short term, OPEC could move into crisis with Venezuela's quoto cheating. Lower oil prices would play into Prechter's deflation argument.

Prechter writes a lot about "change in mood". I'm seeing it on TV at night and in every day conversations. The news about Morocco and Spain fighting over a barren, uninhabited, goat-populated island "took the cake" last week!!

For now, my thoughts are that "cash is king". Our mentality shift now might have to be that 2% is better than -20%. has some great information posted on a daily basis.
Keep me posted on your ideas,

From: Kirk Barrell
To: Mark R
Sent: Sunday, August 18, 2002 9:22 AM
Subject: RE: Big banks are next on list of free-falling stocks

I with you...Jim Puplava posted a great article on the banks last year...especially focused on those with large derivative positions. JPM Chase has an incredible position. My two neighbors work for Chase and I saw them at the park last weekend. They said that things were not good.
The wild ride continues!!


From: Kirk Barrell []
Sent: Tuesday, January 14, 2003 8:40 AM
To: Kirk A. Barrell
Subject: Bedtime reading

a interesting new article at
..........a snipit.....................
Given all of these uncertainties, where should one invest this year? I believe the "Next Big Thing" is going to be in "things" such as commodities. The big winners in this decade are going to be gold, silver, and energy. Other commodities from sugar, coffee, cocoa and grains, to other soft goods will also be winners. Commodity prices will rise because of two trends: a declining US dollar and rising populations and industrialization of developing economies.

The time for paper is over and the rise of "things" has just begun. Another trend that is taking place is what Marc Faber calls the reemergence of the emerging economies. Economic power is moving from the West to the East and this trend is irreversible.

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