Peter Schiff's first attempt at politics came up way short. Ms. McMahon's $30 million budget was too much to compete with it appears. Fortunately, he can now get back to educating the masses on the state of the markets.
"Linda McMahon, former chief executive officer of World Wrestling Entertainment Inc., won the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in Connecticut. She will now face Democrat Richard Blumenthal in November's election. Ms. McMahon, 61, defeated Peter Schiff, president of Westport, Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital Inc., and former U.S. Representative Rob Simmons, in yesterday's primary. With about 90% of the vote counted, Ms. McMahon had 49% of the vote. Mr. Schiff, who garnered national attention for predicting the 2008 market meltdown and subsequent recession, received 23% of the vote. Mr. Simmons received 28%, according to the Associated Press. Although Mr. Schiff came in last, he did better than expected. A poll earlier in the week showed the asset manager receiving barely 15% of the vote."
Source: Investment News
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query schiff. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query schiff. Sort by date Show all posts
Friday, August 13, 2010
Monday, August 3, 2009
Peter Schiff Announces His Quest For The Senate
Peter Schiff has announced that he's running for Senate. This should be an interesting one to watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuAIinwcYk8
My posts relating to Schiff:
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/search?q=schiff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuAIinwcYk8
My posts relating to Schiff:
http://randomroving.blogspot.com/search?q=schiff
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
The Blind Squirrel and The Broken Clock
It's been entertaining lately to see Peter Schiff get beat up on bubblevision over the fact that foreign equities have taken a beating along with a rising U.S. dollar....both, Schiff didn't predict. I'm "on board" with Schiff's forecast for the future (hyperinflation, cratering U.S. dollar), so the entertaining part was that the media jumped on him so quickly because he received so much "overnight fame" for accurately calling the market collapse.
The media pundits just don't want to hear anyone's negative forecast. They want everyone watching Cramer and getting "jacked up" on equities Kool-Aid. My friend, Robeesh, says that "every broken clock gets the time right once a day". Another told me that "every blind squirrel finds a nut". Yes, both are true. It might be wise to start listening to some of these intelligent squirrels that are not stampeding with "the herd".
The media pundits just don't want to hear anyone's negative forecast. They want everyone watching Cramer and getting "jacked up" on equities Kool-Aid. My friend, Robeesh, says that "every broken clock gets the time right once a day". Another told me that "every blind squirrel finds a nut". Yes, both are true. It might be wise to start listening to some of these intelligent squirrels that are not stampeding with "the herd".
A SHORT BLIND SQUIRREL LIST
http://www.financialsense.com/
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Another Dose of Non-Reality
"In the end, this stimulus, just like prior doses, will only worsen the condition it is meant to cure. When it wears off, the resulting recession will be even bigger than the one that everyone assumes has just ended. Until the impulse to fight recessions with government stimulus is quashed, genuine economic growth will never return. A string of ever-worsening recessions will eventually lead to what will be the next Great (Inflationary) Depression. But for now, enjoy the bubbly."
Peter Schiff
Entire article:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/1030.html
Peter Schiff
Entire article:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/1030.html
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Peter Schiff On Gold
"In short, the dollar is closer than ever to collapse and there is no other national currency ready to take its place. I believe the world may soon discover that there is no better alternative than history's proven money - gold. Some of you might be familiar with these arguments, and say they are old hat. The same Wall Street analysts who missed the dot-com bubble and the real estate bubble are now warning that gold has already had its run up and is way overvalued. However, they were making this same argument back in 2006, with gold at $600/oz. Meanwhile, in April of that year, I wrote a commentary with a few personal observations: none of my mining stocks had split, precious metals investors were not rubbing shoulders with real estate moguls or dot-com millionaires, and I was still running my gold investment division with only one employee. On TV, Flip That House wasn't followed by Deal That Gold. My taxi driver wasn't offering me hot bullion tips. In fact, nine out of ten people you stopped on the street couldn't even tell you the current price of gold within $200! And that's still the case today. I continue to recommend that investors hold five to ten percent of their wealth in physical precious metals. Aside from the likelihood that gold and silver will rise in price, precious metals offer timeless benefits, such as financial privacy, elimination of counter-party risk (if you store them yourself), as well as protection from government confiscation, onerous securities regulation, and punitive tax rates."
Peter Schiff, EuroPacific Capital
Peter Schiff, EuroPacific Capital
Saturday, November 22, 2008
The Four Horsemen
I've added a new "virtual mentor" to my list, Peter Schiff. After reading his book, Crash Proof, reviewing his website, and watching several of his interviews, I'm convinced that this guy is on the mark. I just ordered his latest book. Here's an update on my four horsemen and their perspectives. The challenging part is that they all have different perspectives.
1) Jim Puplava: the Fed along with the new administration will print even more money in the years to come. This will lead to massive hyperinflation. He likes stocks next year for this reason, but believes that energy and commodities will rule in the future hyperinflated world.
www.financialsense.com
2) Warren Buffet: Always buy value and don't worry about the rest. He's made some great deals lately and he's encouraging everyone to stay in stocks.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/
3) Robert Prechter: He's dancing in the street due to the fact that his deflationary prediction appears to be coming true. With everything declining, it appears very deflationary. He believes that the Dow is heading to 700.
www.elliottwave.com
4) Peter Schiff: He's extremely negative on the future of the U.S. dollar. He believes that the Chinese will send those dollars home soon. He likes high yielding stocks on foreign exchanges in country's with strong currencies. He suggests that these stocks be acquired in the foreign currency. When the dollar tanks, bring those dollars home and buy up everything.
www.europac.net
1) Jim Puplava: the Fed along with the new administration will print even more money in the years to come. This will lead to massive hyperinflation. He likes stocks next year for this reason, but believes that energy and commodities will rule in the future hyperinflated world.
www.financialsense.com
2) Warren Buffet: Always buy value and don't worry about the rest. He's made some great deals lately and he's encouraging everyone to stay in stocks.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/
3) Robert Prechter: He's dancing in the street due to the fact that his deflationary prediction appears to be coming true. With everything declining, it appears very deflationary. He believes that the Dow is heading to 700.
www.elliottwave.com
4) Peter Schiff: He's extremely negative on the future of the U.S. dollar. He believes that the Chinese will send those dollars home soon. He likes high yielding stocks on foreign exchanges in country's with strong currencies. He suggests that these stocks be acquired in the foreign currency. When the dollar tanks, bring those dollars home and buy up everything.
www.europac.net
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Beck, Schiff, and Faber
An informative Glenn Beck interview with Peter Schiff and Marc Faber.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJaDuERV7c8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJaDuERV7c8
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Peter Schiff Is No Fool
Happy April Fools Day! And yes, we have some fools in the news these days!
It's painful to watch the media pundits with their hype and fingerpointing every night. None seem to ever provide any insight, solutions, or forecast any potential future events. In this interview with Peter Schiff, it is refreshing to hear him clearly define the correct solution. The solution is not a "fix" for the problem because there is not one. His solution relates how best to "whether the storm". The storm is coming. We can't change that. The solution relates to how best can we prepare for it.
In the video note how the media folks want to brand him as negative and pessimistic. If an optimistic sees a storm coming, he runs for shelter. Also note the dates on the first few clips. He was right on the mark with his forecast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_LkOW6nXPw
It's painful to watch the media pundits with their hype and fingerpointing every night. None seem to ever provide any insight, solutions, or forecast any potential future events. In this interview with Peter Schiff, it is refreshing to hear him clearly define the correct solution. The solution is not a "fix" for the problem because there is not one. His solution relates how best to "whether the storm". The storm is coming. We can't change that. The solution relates to how best can we prepare for it.
In the video note how the media folks want to brand him as negative and pessimistic. If an optimistic sees a storm coming, he runs for shelter. Also note the dates on the first few clips. He was right on the mark with his forecast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_LkOW6nXPw
Friday, January 9, 2009
Schiff's Greatest Hits Video
A nice summary of Peter Schiff's perspective:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweLBpE4mso&NR=1
You have to love his metaphors!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweLBpE4mso&NR=1
You have to love his metaphors!
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Kieth Richards & The DEA
Peter Schiff posted a very good commentary on Financial Sense Online:
"In seeking to undo the damage inflicted over the past decade by misguided government policies, the new regulatory regime would ensure that the problems underlying our financial system will only get worse. As was the case with the deeply flawed Sarbanes-Oxley legislation of 2002, or the misguided provisions of the Patriot Act of 2001, such as the torturous anti-money laundering requirements, the move will further burden the financial services industry with unnecessary regulation that will drive up costs, lower quality, and shelter the biggest and least innovative companies. Ultimately, the structure will put the entire U.S. financial industry at a global competitive disadvantage."
"The underlying problem is that the excessive risk taking which brought about the crisis was not market-driven, but a direct consequence of government interference with risk-inhibiting market forces. Rather than learning from its mistakes and allowing market forces to once again control risks and efficiently allocate resources, the government is merely repeating its mistakes on a grander scale – thereby sowing the seeds for an even greater crisis in the future."
"As is typical of government attempts to control economic outcomes, Obama's plans focuses on the symptoms of the disease and not the cause. The American financial system imploded for two reasons: cheap money and moral hazard – both of which were supplied by the government. Under the proposed new regulatory structures, these toxic ingredients will be combined in ever-increasing quantities."
"Obama proposes to entrust the critical job of 'systemic risk regulator' to the Federal Reserve, the very organization that has proven most adept at creating systemic risk. This is like making Keith Richards the head of the DEA."
the entire article:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/0619.html
"In seeking to undo the damage inflicted over the past decade by misguided government policies, the new regulatory regime would ensure that the problems underlying our financial system will only get worse. As was the case with the deeply flawed Sarbanes-Oxley legislation of 2002, or the misguided provisions of the Patriot Act of 2001, such as the torturous anti-money laundering requirements, the move will further burden the financial services industry with unnecessary regulation that will drive up costs, lower quality, and shelter the biggest and least innovative companies. Ultimately, the structure will put the entire U.S. financial industry at a global competitive disadvantage."
"The underlying problem is that the excessive risk taking which brought about the crisis was not market-driven, but a direct consequence of government interference with risk-inhibiting market forces. Rather than learning from its mistakes and allowing market forces to once again control risks and efficiently allocate resources, the government is merely repeating its mistakes on a grander scale – thereby sowing the seeds for an even greater crisis in the future."
"As is typical of government attempts to control economic outcomes, Obama's plans focuses on the symptoms of the disease and not the cause. The American financial system imploded for two reasons: cheap money and moral hazard – both of which were supplied by the government. Under the proposed new regulatory structures, these toxic ingredients will be combined in ever-increasing quantities."
"Obama proposes to entrust the critical job of 'systemic risk regulator' to the Federal Reserve, the very organization that has proven most adept at creating systemic risk. This is like making Keith Richards the head of the DEA."
the entire article:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/0619.html
Friday, January 8, 2010
Proactive Politics
Well it didn't take long at all! It appears that the politicians are being proactive and retiring versus the alternative of being thrown out of office.
WASHINGTON - "Sen. Christopher Dodd, a five-term Democrat whose political stock began falling after the financial meltdown, has decided not to seek re-election in November, sources told NBC News. Word of his retirement comes hours after North Dakota Democrat Byron Dorgan announced he will not seek re-election." Source: MSNBC
"The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch."
Random Roving 1/1/10
"So the political winds have forced Dodd to quit. Does this give Peter Schiff more or less of a chance to replace Dodd as Connecticut’s next Senator?"
Source: Liberty Maven
DENVER — "Gov. Bill Ritter Jr. of Colorado, a first-term Democrat, and spokesman for a band of upstart Democratic governors in historically Republican strongholds in the West, will not seek a second term in office this fall, a Colorado Democrat with knowledge of the governor’s plans said Tuesday. 'He is publically announcing tomorrow that he is dropping out of the race,' said the Democrat, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the situation, and so spoke on condition of anonymity. Mr. Ritter faced a tough race, with an apparently unified Republican party against him, a somewhat divided Democratic party on his flanks and a state still stumbling economically. But the news still shook Colorado politics, and shifted the dynamic of the fall contest, with no incumbent — for better or worse — to rally behind or to attack." Source: NY Times
"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving 1/1/10
WASHINGTON - "Sen. Christopher Dodd, a five-term Democrat whose political stock began falling after the financial meltdown, has decided not to seek re-election in November, sources told NBC News. Word of his retirement comes hours after North Dakota Democrat Byron Dorgan announced he will not seek re-election." Source: MSNBC
"The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch."
Random Roving 1/1/10
"So the political winds have forced Dodd to quit. Does this give Peter Schiff more or less of a chance to replace Dodd as Connecticut’s next Senator?"
Source: Liberty Maven
DENVER — "Gov. Bill Ritter Jr. of Colorado, a first-term Democrat, and spokesman for a band of upstart Democratic governors in historically Republican strongholds in the West, will not seek a second term in office this fall, a Colorado Democrat with knowledge of the governor’s plans said Tuesday. 'He is publically announcing tomorrow that he is dropping out of the race,' said the Democrat, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the situation, and so spoke on condition of anonymity. Mr. Ritter faced a tough race, with an apparently unified Republican party against him, a somewhat divided Democratic party on his flanks and a state still stumbling economically. But the news still shook Colorado politics, and shifted the dynamic of the fall contest, with no incumbent — for better or worse — to rally behind or to attack." Source: NY Times
"Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware."
Random Roving 1/1/10
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Happy New Year! 2011 is here
As I've said for the past few years on this blog, this is one of my favorite days of the year. It's a great time for reflection, and spending some time thinking about the future. As always, I like to review my predictions from the prior year, critique them, and present a few more. As stated in the past, I'm no expert, but the cycles continue to progess as they have in the past.
One year ago for Christmas, I sent 22 copies of Strauss & Howe's book, "The Fourth Turning" as Christmas gifts to my closest friends and family. Unfortunately, maybe two of the recipients actually read the book. Most found it too gloomy and depressing. I will present several excerpts over the coming months. The book published in 1997 has been right on the mark with it's forecasts and predictions.
Here are my predictions from 1/1/10 and my comments:
-"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08 This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come. CORRECT. This was an original from 1/1/08 and still keeps on proving correct. I'll repredict the same for 2011. Worldwide money printing appears to continue and can only raise prices and destroy currencies. Watch for the point when interest rates start to tick back up. Congrats to my buddy, Magoo, who bought his first Krugerrand in 2010. Buy some more in 2011.
-Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either. INCORRECT/CORRECT. Oil hovered around $70/barrel for most of the year. I believe that prices will average over $100/barrell for 2011.
-All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind. STILL IN PROGRESS. Three of the four potential outcomes still appear to be possibilities. The probability of the Obama administration "wowing" us in the next two years is very unlikely in my mind. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind. From an Austrian economic definition, we are already deflating due to the contracting money supply. This one is the $64,000 question.
-Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!! CORRECT!!! It will be hard to top this one.
-I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking. STILL IN PROGRESS. It appears that the "linears" are still in the majority while the cycle vibrates on.
-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm". CORRECT. Not only has the Fed printing like mad, but the rest of the world is following suit. "We've only just begun." The Carpenters
-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper...... CORRECT. What a year for gold, silver, and corn!
-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction". STILL IN PROGRESS. Derivatives will continue to unwind. They blamed the 2008 massacre on mortgages, but at the core was a derivative gambling casino. Much more to come.
-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!" CORRECT. Not a good time for a Greece or UK trip. You might catch a rock in the head.
-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch. CORRECT. I don't think that anyone would argue about this one. The Schiff Senate Race turned out to be a dud though. In due time!
-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.
CORRECT. The mob is angrier than ever. The angry white American bible carrying man hasn't made his statement yet.
-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware. CORRECT/INCORRECT. The ratings fall is dead on, but a few incumbents survived. Not for long though. 2012 will be a political bloodbath.
-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over. CORRECT. This will continue to play out for 25 years.
-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left? CORRECT. Much more to come at a higher level. Tighten up the Secret Service.
-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!". CORRECT. The anti-Muslim sentiment is frightening. Propaganda and the Fox News Patriots will keep this one on the front burner. You can't continue country occupation and seizing resources without some "fear factor" driving it. Where's Osama???
-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country. CORRECT. If you disagree, turn on Fox News.
-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece. CORRECT. My list was way too short. The PIIGS continue to lead the pack to destruction.
-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert. CORRECT. These will be great bellwethers to watch.
-Families will move geographically and emotionally closer. IN PROGRESS. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. See "The Fourth Turning".
-Materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness. IN PROGRESS. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. See "The Fourth Turning". The trend toward "simplifying" is in progress.
-Gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels. YET TO COMMENCE. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. Gluttony still appears to be the "American Way".
-Religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch. IN PROGRESS. Ted Haggard kicked off the trend and Robert Schuller was the next major pillar to fall. When will Joel Osteen's basketball palace collapse?
Well that's a critique of my 2010 predictions. Now, what about 2011?? I believe that my perspective has not waivered. The cycle continues on so these developments will only deepen and intensify. The worldwide manipulation of the financial system will have grave consequences. We've stolen from the next two generations and I'm not sure if they will ever forgive us. I see the "angry and fear" cycle heading up to the next level in preparation for a frightening 2012. The Mayan Calendar fear will make Y2K look miniscule. It's easy to stampede a herd. Just scare the leaders and the rest will follow. Also keep an eye on the continued toppling of cultural icons. Tiger Woods, Brett Favre, and John Edwards are just the beginning. We build them up during the "up cycle" and tear them down during the "down cycle". Will the cycling doping scandal take Lance Armstrong down? Will Hannah Montana take another bong hit?? The "live" CNN camera feed of the BP oil spill was very symbolic. The magnifying glasses are turned on to "high power". Celebrities, politicians, and corporate CEO's beware.
I'm sticking with my same recommendations from 2009 and 2010. They still are valid and wise.
My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!
May 2011 be your year!
One year ago for Christmas, I sent 22 copies of Strauss & Howe's book, "The Fourth Turning" as Christmas gifts to my closest friends and family. Unfortunately, maybe two of the recipients actually read the book. Most found it too gloomy and depressing. I will present several excerpts over the coming months. The book published in 1997 has been right on the mark with it's forecasts and predictions.
Here are my predictions from 1/1/10 and my comments:
-"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08 This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come. CORRECT. This was an original from 1/1/08 and still keeps on proving correct. I'll repredict the same for 2011. Worldwide money printing appears to continue and can only raise prices and destroy currencies. Watch for the point when interest rates start to tick back up. Congrats to my buddy, Magoo, who bought his first Krugerrand in 2010. Buy some more in 2011.
-Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either. INCORRECT/CORRECT. Oil hovered around $70/barrel for most of the year. I believe that prices will average over $100/barrell for 2011.
-All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind. STILL IN PROGRESS. Three of the four potential outcomes still appear to be possibilities. The probability of the Obama administration "wowing" us in the next two years is very unlikely in my mind. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind. From an Austrian economic definition, we are already deflating due to the contracting money supply. This one is the $64,000 question.
-Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!! CORRECT!!! It will be hard to top this one.
-I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking. STILL IN PROGRESS. It appears that the "linears" are still in the majority while the cycle vibrates on.
-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm". CORRECT. Not only has the Fed printing like mad, but the rest of the world is following suit. "We've only just begun." The Carpenters
-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper...... CORRECT. What a year for gold, silver, and corn!
-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction". STILL IN PROGRESS. Derivatives will continue to unwind. They blamed the 2008 massacre on mortgages, but at the core was a derivative gambling casino. Much more to come.
-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!" CORRECT. Not a good time for a Greece or UK trip. You might catch a rock in the head.
-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch. CORRECT. I don't think that anyone would argue about this one. The Schiff Senate Race turned out to be a dud though. In due time!
-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.
CORRECT. The mob is angrier than ever. The angry white American bible carrying man hasn't made his statement yet.
-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware. CORRECT/INCORRECT. The ratings fall is dead on, but a few incumbents survived. Not for long though. 2012 will be a political bloodbath.
-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over. CORRECT. This will continue to play out for 25 years.
-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left? CORRECT. Much more to come at a higher level. Tighten up the Secret Service.
-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!". CORRECT. The anti-Muslim sentiment is frightening. Propaganda and the Fox News Patriots will keep this one on the front burner. You can't continue country occupation and seizing resources without some "fear factor" driving it. Where's Osama???
-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country. CORRECT. If you disagree, turn on Fox News.
-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece. CORRECT. My list was way too short. The PIIGS continue to lead the pack to destruction.
-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert. CORRECT. These will be great bellwethers to watch.
-Families will move geographically and emotionally closer. IN PROGRESS. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. See "The Fourth Turning".
-Materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness. IN PROGRESS. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. See "The Fourth Turning". The trend toward "simplifying" is in progress.
-Gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels. YET TO COMMENCE. This will occur over the next 10-15 years. Gluttony still appears to be the "American Way".
-Religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch. IN PROGRESS. Ted Haggard kicked off the trend and Robert Schuller was the next major pillar to fall. When will Joel Osteen's basketball palace collapse?
Well that's a critique of my 2010 predictions. Now, what about 2011?? I believe that my perspective has not waivered. The cycle continues on so these developments will only deepen and intensify. The worldwide manipulation of the financial system will have grave consequences. We've stolen from the next two generations and I'm not sure if they will ever forgive us. I see the "angry and fear" cycle heading up to the next level in preparation for a frightening 2012. The Mayan Calendar fear will make Y2K look miniscule. It's easy to stampede a herd. Just scare the leaders and the rest will follow. Also keep an eye on the continued toppling of cultural icons. Tiger Woods, Brett Favre, and John Edwards are just the beginning. We build them up during the "up cycle" and tear them down during the "down cycle". Will the cycling doping scandal take Lance Armstrong down? Will Hannah Montana take another bong hit?? The "live" CNN camera feed of the BP oil spill was very symbolic. The magnifying glasses are turned on to "high power". Celebrities, politicians, and corporate CEO's beware.
I'm sticking with my same recommendations from 2009 and 2010. They still are valid and wise.
My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!
May 2011 be your year!
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Schiff & Weiss
Some excerpts from a great interview of Peter Schiff with Martin Weiss:
"Let me first tell you what I think should have happened: A healthy cleansing of the economic system — an opportunity for the country to greatly reduce its huge debt burden. No matter how painful that might have been in the short term, it would have been the right thing for our country. But the politicians didn't want that to happen. Instead, they did whatever they could to postpone the pain; and in the process, they have now done far more damage to our country than we would have seen otherwise. They are continually acting in their own self-interests, but against the national interest."
"The government's Herculean efforts to counter the collapse of 2008 merely postponed the inevitable and compounded the problem. Result: The next crisis is likely to be WORSE than the last crisis would have been had they simply allowed it to happen."
"We're going to see a huge contraction in GDP regardless of what we do. Our economy is more than 70 percent consumption, and we're consuming too much. That's part of the problem. We have to consume less so we can start saving more. We have to transition from (a) a bubble economy based on excessive consumer credit and spending to (b) a stable, vibrant economy based on under-consumption, savings, capital investment, and production. That transition is going to necessitate a large, one-time downward adjustment in our GDP. Then we can right the ship. Then we can get out of this hole and start building the economy back up again. But the government refuses to allow this to happen, and therein lies our biggest problem."
"In real terms, especially in terms of gold, GDP is still going to plunge. Certainly in terms of our standard of living and quality of life, Americans are going to see a huge decline. No doubt about it! It's the inevitable result of years of reckless indulgences that cannot be undone. What's worse is that, instead of transitioning to a more wholesome economy based on savings and investment, we seem to be transitioning from a market-based economy to a centrally-planned economy, and that's a prescription for disaster."
"I am not sure about the precise magnitude, but the initial contraction would have been much greater had the government not intervened. Still, all the government really accomplished was to delay the pain. And I repeat: Precisely because of what the government has done, the ultimate decline in the economy is going to be MUCH worse than it would have been without the government's 'help.'"
"There are no more new rabbits. Just more of the same old bunnies that they keep multiplying — like printing more money. In fact, one of the last remaining hawks on the Federal Open Market Committee just came out yesterday and said the Fed needs to buy more Treasuries and more mortgages — more "quantitative easing." That's just a fancy way of saying they want more inflation ... which, of course, we need like a hole in the head."
"The value of the dollar is going to implode. That is the next big bubble to burst — the U.S. dollar and U.S. government bonds. In other words, the next crisis will be a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis! It's coming to the United States, and there's no escaping it."
"Instead, we need savings. We need under-consumption. We need capital investment and production. But every time consumers put their credit cards away and stop shopping, the politicians want to stimulate them more. It's as if every time a drunk stops drinking and starts to sober up, the politicians try to shove more alcohol down his throat. So I'm not confident there's going to be much opposition to government stimulus from a bunch of people in Congress who don't understand the first thing about economics, who have swallowed the Keynesian nonsense hook, line and sinker."
"I think the government's going to continue to throw gasoline on the fire they lit. That's all they know. They want to keep us spending. They want to keep asset prices from falling. They want to keep insolvent institutions afloat. And the only way to do that is to keep printing money because the politicians who are there don't want to face the music. They don't want to admit how severe the problems are — that they themselves are at the root of those problems, and that the solutions require less government. Instead, they want to play Santa Claus. And they want to vilify the market, vilify capitalism, and vilify the greed on Wall Street. But that isn't the cause of our problems — it's the greed in Washington, the greed for power. It's their subsidies and regulations that removed the fear and allowed private sector greed to run unchecked. And now they refuse to acknowledge the damage they've done to this economy."
Forget about "double dip." I do not believe the recession ever ended. In fact, I think we are in the early stages of a depression. True, GDP grew in the last few quarters, but none of that growth was real. It simply resulted from spending more borrowed money, which we now have to repay. If you net the debt out of the growth, we didn't really grow at all. We simply dug ourselves into a deeper hole. The most disturbing aspect of Friday's GDP numbers was the ballooning trade deficit. In fact, the trade deficit subtracted more from GDP in the second quarter than in any equivalent period since the early 1980s. And this is a time when our trade deficit should be shrinking! This is a time when we need to be exporting more and importing less. Instead, we're continuing to charge even more consumption on our national "credit card," and the entire country is going deeper into debt. The imbalances are getting wider, not narrower; we're in deeper trouble than we were before."
"Moreover, any extra economic activity was an illusion — the spending of borrowed money. And because we spent so much money to inflate our GDP, the economy must contract by that much more in the future as we repay those debts with interest."
"You can't put out a fire with gasoline, and if you decide to pour on even more, it's only going to give you a bigger fire. We are never going to have a sustainable recovery until we allow market forces to restructure our economy. And we can't do that until the government stops stimulating. We can't save money if we keep spending; we can't be productive if the government continues undermining our productivity. We need resources to invest in our future, but the government is taking them all. Plus, the government is encumbering the economy with more burdensome rules and regulations that prevent its restructuring and that make it less efficient. So it doesn't matter how much money they print — it's just pieces of paper. Yes, we can spend it for a while, but only as long as China, Japan, Germany and others keep taking it. Look. Last year, nobody was worried about Greece. They were just as indebted as they were this year, but nobody seemed to care. Then, suddenly the Greek crisis popped out of nowhere. Similarly, right now, it seems as though no one cares how much debt America has. But one day soon, they are going to care, and when they do, we're going to know it — big time!"
"Back then, people didn't care that dot.coms had no earnings ... until one day they woke up. They didn't care that subprime borrowers couldn't repay their mortgages ... until one day it hit them. Bubbles go on for a while, and then, all of a sudden, they burst. People behave irrationally for while, but sooner or later reality always rears its head. And in this case, I think it will be a lot sooner than just about anyone thinks."
"It could be the mother of all bubbles — especially if you consider the Treasury bubble and the dollar bubble as one in the same. I do. Because, from my perspective, the only thing worse than owning a dollar is owning the promise to be paid a dollar 30 years in the future!"
"They're going to continue stimulating, and sooner or later the bottom's going to drop out of the U.S. dollar. We could even begin to see a currency crisis before this year is out. Already, the dollar has now lost value for seven consecutive weeks. We don't know if its current downward momentum will accelerate or not. But right now, the dollar index is in the low 80s. If it cracks below 70, you can expect a free-fall. And when that happens, we'll start to see big increases in prices for things like food and energy, which will hurt a lot of Americans — both employed and unemployed alike. Worse, if the government prints more money — supposedly to help people better afford the higher prices — they will merely drive prices even higher. Or they might even impose price controls, which would create shortages and a different kind of disaster."
"They have built an economy that rests on the shaky foundation of low interest rates. They want interest rates to stay low indefinitely to prop up the housing market, to prop up the banks, and to prop up the federal government. But what if interest rates were to rise? Then, real estate prices would plunge further, financial institutions that got bailed out would fail again, and the Federal government would have to default on its debt — overtly or through deliberately created inflation. So the Fed MUST keep interest rates low or the foundation caves in, and entire house-of-cards economy falls apart."
"We have a shortage of savings in this country. Many of your readers want conservative investments with a decent yield. But there are none to be found. You can't put your money in a bank and receive a decent return — let alone after inflation and taxes are taken into consideration. You can't get better yields without exposing yourself to real dangers. How is anyone going to save money in this situation? So we need an interest rate that will balance this out. We need to encourage savings and discourage borrowing. Instead, borrowing is being massively stimulated, particularly for consumption and speculation."
"Moreover, I'm the last person to want bad times. If you could give me a time machine, I'd gladly go back to earlier decades and do everything in my power to make today's era a better time for us all. But now it's too late. Now your choices are: Do you want the government to just numb the pain again? Or do you want it to fix the problem this time?"
"Let me first tell you what I think should have happened: A healthy cleansing of the economic system — an opportunity for the country to greatly reduce its huge debt burden. No matter how painful that might have been in the short term, it would have been the right thing for our country. But the politicians didn't want that to happen. Instead, they did whatever they could to postpone the pain; and in the process, they have now done far more damage to our country than we would have seen otherwise. They are continually acting in their own self-interests, but against the national interest."
"The government's Herculean efforts to counter the collapse of 2008 merely postponed the inevitable and compounded the problem. Result: The next crisis is likely to be WORSE than the last crisis would have been had they simply allowed it to happen."
"We're going to see a huge contraction in GDP regardless of what we do. Our economy is more than 70 percent consumption, and we're consuming too much. That's part of the problem. We have to consume less so we can start saving more. We have to transition from (a) a bubble economy based on excessive consumer credit and spending to (b) a stable, vibrant economy based on under-consumption, savings, capital investment, and production. That transition is going to necessitate a large, one-time downward adjustment in our GDP. Then we can right the ship. Then we can get out of this hole and start building the economy back up again. But the government refuses to allow this to happen, and therein lies our biggest problem."
"In real terms, especially in terms of gold, GDP is still going to plunge. Certainly in terms of our standard of living and quality of life, Americans are going to see a huge decline. No doubt about it! It's the inevitable result of years of reckless indulgences that cannot be undone. What's worse is that, instead of transitioning to a more wholesome economy based on savings and investment, we seem to be transitioning from a market-based economy to a centrally-planned economy, and that's a prescription for disaster."
"I am not sure about the precise magnitude, but the initial contraction would have been much greater had the government not intervened. Still, all the government really accomplished was to delay the pain. And I repeat: Precisely because of what the government has done, the ultimate decline in the economy is going to be MUCH worse than it would have been without the government's 'help.'"
"There are no more new rabbits. Just more of the same old bunnies that they keep multiplying — like printing more money. In fact, one of the last remaining hawks on the Federal Open Market Committee just came out yesterday and said the Fed needs to buy more Treasuries and more mortgages — more "quantitative easing." That's just a fancy way of saying they want more inflation ... which, of course, we need like a hole in the head."
"The value of the dollar is going to implode. That is the next big bubble to burst — the U.S. dollar and U.S. government bonds. In other words, the next crisis will be a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis! It's coming to the United States, and there's no escaping it."
"Instead, we need savings. We need under-consumption. We need capital investment and production. But every time consumers put their credit cards away and stop shopping, the politicians want to stimulate them more. It's as if every time a drunk stops drinking and starts to sober up, the politicians try to shove more alcohol down his throat. So I'm not confident there's going to be much opposition to government stimulus from a bunch of people in Congress who don't understand the first thing about economics, who have swallowed the Keynesian nonsense hook, line and sinker."
"I think the government's going to continue to throw gasoline on the fire they lit. That's all they know. They want to keep us spending. They want to keep asset prices from falling. They want to keep insolvent institutions afloat. And the only way to do that is to keep printing money because the politicians who are there don't want to face the music. They don't want to admit how severe the problems are — that they themselves are at the root of those problems, and that the solutions require less government. Instead, they want to play Santa Claus. And they want to vilify the market, vilify capitalism, and vilify the greed on Wall Street. But that isn't the cause of our problems — it's the greed in Washington, the greed for power. It's their subsidies and regulations that removed the fear and allowed private sector greed to run unchecked. And now they refuse to acknowledge the damage they've done to this economy."
Forget about "double dip." I do not believe the recession ever ended. In fact, I think we are in the early stages of a depression. True, GDP grew in the last few quarters, but none of that growth was real. It simply resulted from spending more borrowed money, which we now have to repay. If you net the debt out of the growth, we didn't really grow at all. We simply dug ourselves into a deeper hole. The most disturbing aspect of Friday's GDP numbers was the ballooning trade deficit. In fact, the trade deficit subtracted more from GDP in the second quarter than in any equivalent period since the early 1980s. And this is a time when our trade deficit should be shrinking! This is a time when we need to be exporting more and importing less. Instead, we're continuing to charge even more consumption on our national "credit card," and the entire country is going deeper into debt. The imbalances are getting wider, not narrower; we're in deeper trouble than we were before."
"Moreover, any extra economic activity was an illusion — the spending of borrowed money. And because we spent so much money to inflate our GDP, the economy must contract by that much more in the future as we repay those debts with interest."
"You can't put out a fire with gasoline, and if you decide to pour on even more, it's only going to give you a bigger fire. We are never going to have a sustainable recovery until we allow market forces to restructure our economy. And we can't do that until the government stops stimulating. We can't save money if we keep spending; we can't be productive if the government continues undermining our productivity. We need resources to invest in our future, but the government is taking them all. Plus, the government is encumbering the economy with more burdensome rules and regulations that prevent its restructuring and that make it less efficient. So it doesn't matter how much money they print — it's just pieces of paper. Yes, we can spend it for a while, but only as long as China, Japan, Germany and others keep taking it. Look. Last year, nobody was worried about Greece. They were just as indebted as they were this year, but nobody seemed to care. Then, suddenly the Greek crisis popped out of nowhere. Similarly, right now, it seems as though no one cares how much debt America has. But one day soon, they are going to care, and when they do, we're going to know it — big time!"
"Back then, people didn't care that dot.coms had no earnings ... until one day they woke up. They didn't care that subprime borrowers couldn't repay their mortgages ... until one day it hit them. Bubbles go on for a while, and then, all of a sudden, they burst. People behave irrationally for while, but sooner or later reality always rears its head. And in this case, I think it will be a lot sooner than just about anyone thinks."
"It could be the mother of all bubbles — especially if you consider the Treasury bubble and the dollar bubble as one in the same. I do. Because, from my perspective, the only thing worse than owning a dollar is owning the promise to be paid a dollar 30 years in the future!"
"They're going to continue stimulating, and sooner or later the bottom's going to drop out of the U.S. dollar. We could even begin to see a currency crisis before this year is out. Already, the dollar has now lost value for seven consecutive weeks. We don't know if its current downward momentum will accelerate or not. But right now, the dollar index is in the low 80s. If it cracks below 70, you can expect a free-fall. And when that happens, we'll start to see big increases in prices for things like food and energy, which will hurt a lot of Americans — both employed and unemployed alike. Worse, if the government prints more money — supposedly to help people better afford the higher prices — they will merely drive prices even higher. Or they might even impose price controls, which would create shortages and a different kind of disaster."
"They have built an economy that rests on the shaky foundation of low interest rates. They want interest rates to stay low indefinitely to prop up the housing market, to prop up the banks, and to prop up the federal government. But what if interest rates were to rise? Then, real estate prices would plunge further, financial institutions that got bailed out would fail again, and the Federal government would have to default on its debt — overtly or through deliberately created inflation. So the Fed MUST keep interest rates low or the foundation caves in, and entire house-of-cards economy falls apart."
"We have a shortage of savings in this country. Many of your readers want conservative investments with a decent yield. But there are none to be found. You can't put your money in a bank and receive a decent return — let alone after inflation and taxes are taken into consideration. You can't get better yields without exposing yourself to real dangers. How is anyone going to save money in this situation? So we need an interest rate that will balance this out. We need to encourage savings and discourage borrowing. Instead, borrowing is being massively stimulated, particularly for consumption and speculation."
"Moreover, I'm the last person to want bad times. If you could give me a time machine, I'd gladly go back to earlier decades and do everything in my power to make today's era a better time for us all. But now it's too late. Now your choices are: Do you want the government to just numb the pain again? Or do you want it to fix the problem this time?"
Monday, December 1, 2008
What Would Sam Say?
What a tragedy at the Walmart on Long Island on Black Friday, America's mega-shopping day. I couldn't help but think of the irony of a "mob" of shoppers stampeding a Walmart employee to his death. What would Sam Walton say if he were alive? Yes, it only happened at one retail store out of the thousands opened that day. But, I think it summarizes the state of our culture and country really well. A mob of shoppers who had stood in line for hours, charge the opening door of a store so that they can buy more things that they don't need apparently at a discounted price. The most shocking report from the scene was that shoppers were angry and despondent when it was announced over the loud speakers that the door was closing due to the death of the Walmart employee. Peter Schiff states that we've evolved from a "production" to a "consumption" country. This event on Black Friday couldn't sum it up better. As I've stated before, our country will be a better place after we deflate from the Super Size Me Era.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The Patriot and The Restoration of Order
"Also, it is important not to confuse a desire not to go down with a sinking ship with patriotism. Such "patriots" who stand on the deck saluting the flag as the ship sinks will likely be of little assistance to other survivors left treading water. Only by attempting to position ourselves safely aboard sea-worthy lifeboats now will we be able to participate in any future rescue efforts. Protecting our wealth today should allow us to repatriate it tomorrow, thus enabling us to help rebuild a viable American economy."
"What nearly all politicians on both sides of the aisle fail to understand is that the current contraction and credit crunch is necessary to restore order to an economy that is horribly out of balance. Years of misguided fiscal and monetary policy and market-distorting regulations have resulted in reckless borrowing and spending on Main Street, pervasive gambling on Wall Street, and rampant fraud and corruption at every intersection. America’s borrow and spend economy, and the bloated service sector that evolved around it, must be allowed to topple, so that a more sustainable economy grounded in savings and production can rise in its place. Any government efforts to delay the adjustment and spare us the pain will backfire, turning this recession into an inflationary depression. Of broader concern however is the sharp turn in ideology, and what it means for the future of our nation. If this is a permanent shift, then America will lose any resemblance to the economic titan it was in the 20th Century. Our standard of living will decline sharply, our economy will be ravaged by inflation, tens of millions will be unemployed, more individual liberties will be surrendered, and rugged individualism will be supplanted by the nanny state. In short, Latin America may extend north to the Canadian border."
Peter Schiff, President Euro Pacific Capital, Author "Crash Proof" 11/17/08
His strategy: http://www.europac.net/videomessage.asp
His outlook:
U.S. Stocks
We believe that in general U.S. equities remain substantially over-valued, and that despite nominal new highs for some popular stock market averages, they remain in long-term secular bear markets when adjusted for inflation. As such we are bearish on the broad U.S. stock market, and only find value in certain carefully selected U.S. equities, generally those companies that are export oriented and/or commodities based, including mining and oil and gas.
U.S. Bonds
We believe that the U.S. bond market is in the process of forming a significant top, in what has been a major long-term bull market. Once completed, we expect bond prices to collapse. Given the highly unfavorable long-term risk reward situation, we recommend that investors maintain minimum exposure to any long-term debt instruments, be they treasury, municipal, or corporate. Those holding U.S. dollar denominated debt instruments should restrict ownership to only the highest quality, short-term maturities. Even those high income investors seeking tax-favored yields are cautioned that avoiding the inflation tax, which stealthily confiscates principal, is more important than avoiding taxes on mere income.
U.S. Residential Real Estate
If it looks like a bubble, walks like a bubble, and quacks like a bubble, it's a bubble. The combination of artificially low interest rates, foreign central bank intervention, an irresponsible Fed, excessive credit availability, the proliferation of low or no-down payment, adjustable-rate, interest-only, and negative-amortization mortgages, a can't-lose attitude among speculators, validated by ever rising "comps," the complete abandonment of lending standards, wide-spread corruption in the appraisal industry, rampant fraud among sub-prime lenders, and the moral hazards associated with loan originators re-selling loans to buyers of securitized products who perceive minimal risk and an implied government guarantee, has produced the "mother of all bubbles." When it finally bursts, it's not just real estate speculators and home owners who will suffer, but the entire U.S. economy, its banking and financial systems, and anyone with U.S. dollar denominated savings.
The U.S. Dollar
We believe the U.S. dollar is in a major long-term bear market, and as such recommend keeping exposure to the dollar at an absolute minimum. All long-term savings and investments should be denominated in select foreign currencies against which we believe the dollar is likely to fare the worst.
Gold
We believe that Gold is in the early stages of a new, secular bull market. Conservative investors are advised to have a portion of their savings allocated to physical bullion, while speculative investors are advised to own shares of carefully selected mining companies, both domestic and international.
Commodities
Like gold, we believe that commodities in general are in the early stages of a new bull market, and that conservative and aggressive investors should seek out appropriate ways to gain exposure to this sector.
Foreign Stocks
We believe that unique opportunities exist in many carefully selected foreign equities, particularly those that have minimal exposure to the United States, and are in no way related to U.S consumers, financial services, or technology. Many foreign markets are counter-cyclical to the U.S., and have recently emerged from long-term bear markets. In many cases valuations are low, yields are high, and prospects for earnings growth are favorable.
Foreign Bonds
Given our bearish outlook for the dollar, bond investors should concentrate their holdings in instruments denominated in select foreign currencies. However, given our global outlook for higher interest rates and rising inflation, shorter maturities are preferable. However, given current U.S. tax law, we believe that those seeking conservative, income generating investments should concentrate on high dividend paying, carefully selected foreign property stocks, utilities, energy trusts, and natural resource based companies.
The U.S. Economy
We believe that the growing imbalances in the U.S. economy, its twin budget and current account deficits, its lack of domestic savings, and the erosion of its industrial base, have now reached a point where a severe recession, culminating in a substantial decline in the over-all American standard of living, is imminent. The Federal Reserve, Congress, and the President, for political expedience, are likely to continue seeking to delay this adjustment, unfortunately in ways which will exacerbate its severity, making the inevitable recession that much worse, and increasing the probability of a hyper-inflationary outcome, which would render the U.S. dollar, and all U.S. dollar denominated financial assets, practically worthless in terms of real purchasing power, potentially creating a situation of extreme financial, political, and social unrest.
The above forecasts are made with much regret, as we realize that they foretell significant hardships for millions of our fellow Americans. However, it is our mission to help spare as many of our countrymen as possible from suffering this fate. In fact, we feel that it is our patriotic duty to help as many Americans as possible to safely protect their wealth though the acquisition of foreign assets. It is only through such actions that at least some Americans will retain ownership of financial wealth which may be repatriated in the aftermath of the collapse.
We remain hopeful that dire economic conditions will at least create a climate in which America can finally return to her constitutional traditions of sound money and limited government, providing a foundation upon which a sounder economy can one day be rebuilt. If out of the ashes of this collapse, the spirits of our founding fathers can rise again, it may one day be possible for America to reclaim her former glory, and once again be that shining city of which Ronald Reagan so eloquently spoke.
In our opinion the U.S. economic ship of state is in danger of sinking. As the problems with her hull are structural, current efforts by government officials and central bankers to plug up the holes will make it difficult to keep her afloat. Though we remain hopeful that she may one day be returned to a sea-worthy condition, there is nothing collectively that we can do to alter her fate, or that of the millions of Americans ignorantly dancing the night away on her decks. However, individually we can take defensive action to protect ourselves and our families by getting off the ship. In our opinion the lifeboat of choice is a carefully selected portfolio of relatively conservative*, high-dividend paying, non-U.S. export dependent, foreign equities.
Such investments provide three potential sources of protection. 1. They pay good dividends, many of which qualify for the lower dividend tax currently in effect. 2. More importantly, as these dividends are paid in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, their value will rise as the dollar falls, as will the principal value of the underlying shares. 3. They provide the potential for true capital gains, as the shares themselves may appreciate in terms of their local currencies.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Happy New Year!! 2010 is Here.
It's my favorite time of the year to make predictions. I'm still sticking with all of my prior predictions. I'm interested in the "20-something" year cycles, so one year doesn't really make much of a difference.
"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08
This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come.
"I’m betting on Puplava’s forecast of massive inflation. Buy some Krugerrands and interest in an oil well." Random Roving 10-1-08
This one was a winner and I believe it will be for many years to come.
All four outcomes still seem to be possibilities. I'm still convinced that massive inflation is coming. Massive deflation could be right behind.
I'm going to comment on my January 1, 2008 predictions one by one:
· Oil: $150/barrel before $50/barrel - WRONG. Oil bottomed at $38/barrel. I'll repredict the same for 2010, but the price will likely not see either.
· Gold: $1500/ou before $500/ou - I believe that $1500 is looking good.
· Dow Jones Ind. Avg.: 5000 before 15000 - We're currently in the middle. It still could be time to take the money and run.
· Next ten years will be the toughest we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.
· Next twenty much tougher than last twenty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.
· Next fifty much tougher than last fifty - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.
· Military draft: within ten years, probably 5 - Sticking to my guns on this one. Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details.
· Brett Favre won’t be playing for the Jets next season - CORRECT! But I never would have predicted a great season at the helm of the Vikings.
· Paris Hilton’s career tanks - Who really cares. It was a joke anyway.
· Saints win the Superbowl in 2010!!! - This was originally predicted on 10/1/08. This one is looking good despite two recent losses. I'll be considered a genius if this one plays out. Go Saints!!
"I believe that 2009 will be a very challenging year. I don't agree with the gurus that forecast a recession end by the third quarter of next year. Remember that those gurus just informed you that we've been in a recession for the past year. So much for proactive forecasting and timely notification. I think that we're in for a very long haul. A 26 year party requires a long hangover." Random Roving - 12/31/08
I chronicled the 26 year party in a little more detail.
I believe that the "sheeple" were awoken over the past fifteen months. It has become apparent to many that all of the pastures are not guaranteed to be "green" forever. Linear thinking might be giving way to cyclical or chaotic thinking.
My additional predictions for 2010 are:
-The continued printing of money by the Federal Reserve will wreak more havoc across the worldwide markets. Volatility is the new "norm".
-Commodities gone wild: Things will rise rapidly in price....food, fuel, gold, oil, grains, uranium, copper......
-I don't know if it will happen in 2010, but I believe that one of the next "too big to fails" will be JPM Chase. They hold more derivatives than any other company in the world. We've just seen the beginning of the derivative implosion. Remember, Warren called them "weapons of mass destruction".
-Protests and riots will continue to increase across the world. The mob is getting angrier and angrier. College campuses will continue to "heat up". The younger generation is awaking to the fact that their parents squandered their future. "Mom and dad, thanks for the debt burden!"
-Politics will get even uglier. The foundation for the new 3rd party is forming. The Peter Schiff Senate race will be interesting to watch.
-The mob will get even more angry. Beware of the angry white American man carrying the Bible.
-Politicians ratings will continue to fall aligning with a continued decline in mass social mood. Incumbents beware.
-The Heartland Theory will continue to play out for many years to come. The two "R's", religion and resources, will keep the Middle East on the front headlines. The "R's" will expand well beyond the Middle East before this is over.
-The President will continue to "take a beating". Read the "The Fourth Turning" for the details. He's been called a non-US citizen, a Communist, a Fascist, and a Socialist. What is left?
"I don’t think it matters who the next president is. I know that 99% of you will disagree with this statement. I believe that he will be doomed by the economic cycle. The cycle is much greater than a president or a political party. The next president will time it horribly like Carter did, but much worse. He will be the fall guy. He will be worn down by the Middle East like LBJ was with Vietnam. Hopefully he won’t receive the fate of JFK. Yes, that sounds pessimistic, but history is very repetitive." Random Roving - 11/4/08 Election Day
"Was Jimmy Carter really that bad of a president or did he time his economic cycle poorly? Was Bill Clinton really that good of a president or did he time his presidency extremely well? I believe that one was cursed and the other blessed from the “get go”. The next president, whoever he is, is doomed and will likely parallel Carter, JFK, or LBJ. Hopefully for him it will only be as bad as Carter." 6-30-08
-Xenophobia will continue to increase. Muslims and Mexicans will continue to be the easy targets. Which group or culture is next? Will the U.S. fragment and all will say "California, that's your problem!".
-The "patriotic" drums will beat even louder. The love for "our troops" will increase. Nationalism will continue its rise. You will be questioned by the "so called patriots" whether you really love your country.
-The "outer layer of the onions" will continue to struggle. Keep an eye on Iceland, Dubai, California, Honduras, Columbia, Argentina, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, Detroit, Hungary, and Greece.
-Things built on "sand" will continue to struggle: California, Dubai, Arizona, Florida, and Las Vegas. Golf courses and cities are not naturally aligned with the habitat of a desert.
-The downward trend in social mood will present some very positive developments (yeah! finally!):
---families will move geographically and emotionally closer
---materialism will begin to fade toward more important things: family, God, friends, and true happiness.
---gluttony and obesity will evolve back to more natural levels.
---religion will become smaller, "deeper", and more traditional. The megachurch and megamillionaire ministers might have seen "the peak". Hopefully they saved all of those millions from the book deals. The trend toward more "traditional" might spark some old flames. Keep an eye out for increased religious conflict though. The most hypocritical will be Christian vs Christian. Northern Ireland will be one to watch.
I'm sticking with my same recommendations from last year. They still are valid and wise.
My recommendations for the new year:
-Take care of what is important first
-Prepare for all scenarios
-Think for yourself
-Read a lot from diverse sources
-Be aware of who's Kool-Aid you're drinking
-Turn off the TV
-Enjoy life
-Pray a lot!
"As we move into a new year, the stock market's technically weak rally and the repercussions of the burst real estate will follow along. So stay flexible with your investment strategy because we could be in for another hard fall." Claus Vogt - Weiss Research Inc.
I continue to get feedback that this blog focuses too much on negative topics. I'm not sure if I feel more like Paul Revere or the weatherman. No one calls the weatherman a pessimist when he predicts that a hurricane will hit land in five days. They take his/her advice, prepare, and head to higher ground. Don't shoot the optimistic messenger! He's only trying to "fire a warning shot".
Saturday, November 29, 2008
The Gurus on Bubblevision
This is a must watch! It really shows the hype delivered by the media. Note how Peter Schiff is abused by the other guests for his contrarian and unique opinion. The most fascinating is everyone's comments on the financial sector in 2007.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
Advice: Turn off the tv and do your own research.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
Advice: Turn off the tv and do your own research.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Peter Schiff Interviews Marc Faber
I highly recommend a reading of this interview. Marc Faber often makes guest appearances on Puplava's Financial Sense Newshour. He seems to always have a great pulse on the other 90% of the world.
http://www.europac.net/report/reports/report_faber.pdf
http://www.europac.net/report/reports/report_faber.pdf
Friday, December 19, 2008
The Competitive Flat World
"What is thought to be a 'system' is after all, just conventional, and I do not see how one is supposed to divide up the world objectively so that one can make statements about parts."
Albert Einstein
The financial crisis has stimulated a lot of discussion about the interconnected world. The world that Tom Friedman describes as a "flat world". Some have presented theories that we're approaching a "one world order" and the potential of one world currency.
To date, all countries appear to be participants and very well synchronized in this crisis. Peter Schiff in his book, "Crash Proof", believes that not all countries will fair the same. While all currencies could sustain damage, some will do better than others. He believes that China will surface after the crisis as the most powerful economy in the world. He's not a strong believer in the future of the U.S. dollar.
Time will tell.
Albert Einstein
The financial crisis has stimulated a lot of discussion about the interconnected world. The world that Tom Friedman describes as a "flat world". Some have presented theories that we're approaching a "one world order" and the potential of one world currency.
To date, all countries appear to be participants and very well synchronized in this crisis. Peter Schiff in his book, "Crash Proof", believes that not all countries will fair the same. While all currencies could sustain damage, some will do better than others. He believes that China will surface after the crisis as the most powerful economy in the world. He's not a strong believer in the future of the U.S. dollar.
Time will tell.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
The Media's Desire For An Uptrend
Take 5 minutes to watch this interview. I watched it live last week.
Forward to 1:50 on the video to listen to Peter Schiff. His perspective is intriguing, but more interesting to me is the mindsight and behavior of the panel at FastMoney. Note the facial expressions on the show's panel. They just don't want to hear anything that says stocks are going to decline. It shows how we've all been trained to says stocks, stocks, stocks. The media and these financial shows always want a rising market. Watch Cramer on Mad Money for one night. It's not entertainment when the market is cratering.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=935047784&play=1
Forward to 1:50 on the video to listen to Peter Schiff. His perspective is intriguing, but more interesting to me is the mindsight and behavior of the panel at FastMoney. Note the facial expressions on the show's panel. They just don't want to hear anything that says stocks are going to decline. It shows how we've all been trained to says stocks, stocks, stocks. The media and these financial shows always want a rising market. Watch Cramer on Mad Money for one night. It's not entertainment when the market is cratering.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=935047784&play=1
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